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Somerset Squall

Tropical Cyclone Vince

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Invest 91S has become Tropical Cyclone Vince, with an initial intensity of 40kts. Vince may threaten the Pilbara coast later this week/next week. I'll do a full update later.

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Vince's intensity remains at 40kts this evening, and the cyclone is still being sheared. Throughout the disturbance's life, it has been steered westwards by a ridge to the south. Now the ridge has weakened, Vince has swung to the southeast towards the Pilbara coast. However, the ridge to the south is expected to rebuild forcing Vince westwards again. The timing of this turn is uncertain, and crucial to Northwestern Australia. The later the turn, the more likely a coastal impact. This is shown in the track map from JTWC below:

sh0611.gif

The shear over Vince should ease as the cyclone heads to the southeast. With waters remaining warm along track, Vince should strengthen over the coming days.

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Vince has remained a minimal tropical cyclone since I last posted. Intensity has reduced a little to 35kts, and it's clearly obvious the cyclone is still suffering from strong shear. Vince is moving eastwards at present well north of the Australian coast, but should reverse direction soon the subtropical ridge builds back to the south of the cyclone. Shear has remained a lot stronger than originally anticipated, and is no longer expected to ease significantly. Vince could dissipate soon, but warm waters and good moisture availability may sustain Vince as a minimal cyclone over the next few days. Vince is not likely to bring adverse weather to the NW Australian coast.

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Convection has exploded over the LLC of Vince tonight, which is just what the cyclone needed as it was looking very unimpressive earlier. If this convective pattern can persist, then Vince's LLC could tighten again and a little intensification may then result. Equally as likely is that the renewed convection will be sheared off to the west again.

xxirngms.GIF

Image from CIMSS.

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an old image, not looking to great

crefl1_721.A2011015023500-2011015024000.2km.jpg

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