North West England - Slightly Less Cold Spell Discussion Part 21

[itsnowjoke]

just had a look at the charts from the data centre and it looks very doubtful we will see anything wintery this month....................

[kimmirut]

just had a look at the charts from the data centre and it looks very doubtful we will see anything wintery this month....................

Yes you will all of the north of the uk will have heavy thundery snow showers on monday as a trough approaches. But then after that its just sunshine which is good as we can get the ground to cool down again for any snow that comes.

Edited January 15, 2011 by kimmirut

[Rainy]

SW Bowland. Back again. Just seen a party of walkers go past the farm on the footpath. Older folks mostly, though can't see too well as they are well wrapped with waterproofs. Looking a bit drenched, sluggish and miserable. Two holding up brollies against this wild wind, one already part broken. They must be a tough bunch. I'd think twice about going outside anywhere this weather, though daeresay it will be fun looking at rivers in spate.

[itsnowjoke]

Yes you will all of the north of the uk will have heavy thundery snow showers on monday as a trough approaches. But then after that its just sunshine which is good as we can get the ground to cool down again for any snow that comes.

really are you sure

[Rainy]

And back yet again. Relative who lives between Windermere and Kendal, picked up 29.3mm from his gauge at 9am today.

[kimmirut]

really are you sure

Actually no just checked the trough is gone now but it was showing yesterday. But there will still be snow showers from monday onwards because the temps will be cold enough (0-5c) but the chances decrease as the week gets older it just gets colder and sunnier by the end of the week mins are about -7c for most and maxes are about (-3-2c) at best for most.

Edited January 15, 2011 by kimmirut

[itsnowjoke]

Actually no just checked the trough is gone now but it was showing yesterday. But there will still be snow showers from monday onwards because the temps will be cold enough (0-5c) but the chances decrease as the week gets older it just gets colder and sunnier by the end of the week mins are about -7c for most.

cheers

[peterf]

Keswick Campsite flooding from the lake.are there any vans on the site during winter?

Edited January 15, 2011 by peterf

[Thunder Snow]

Very heavy rain here at the moment and a strong wind, i suggest people in Cumbria stay tunned to the forecast, and the latest flood warning. I fear its going to be a real rough ride.

http://www.kirkbystephen.net/eden/live.php

The river eden has rose quite alot compared to this time yesturday.

[peterf]

iv'e just google mapped Keswick Campsite.a lot of big statics on there :blink:

[HotCuppa]

A week tomorrow looks like an interesting setup. High pressure over us, winds NE and upper air -10C over southern north west region, extending to manchester over north east england, midlands and south east.

[k19]

I don't see what the fuss is about. We've had rain but i would hardly describe it as heavy. Maybe we are on the edge of the heavy stuff.

[Thunder Snow]

I don't see what the fuss is about. We've had rain but i would hardly describe it as heavy. Maybe we are on the edge of the heavy stuff.

The fuss is it is pounding Cumbria mate, the rain is really heavy here at the moment but does ease of at times.

[cheshire snow]

Actually no just checked the trough is gone now but it was showing yesterday. But there will still be snow showers from monday onwards because the temps will be cold enough (0-5c) but the chances decrease as the week gets older it just gets colder and sunnier by the end of the week mins are about -7c for most and maxes are about (-3-2c) at best for most.

Please can you show some charts to back up your post...

i cannot see anything on the charts sugesting snow shower,s for this region

from Monday

C.S

A week tomorrow looks like an interesting setup. High pressure over us, winds NE and upper air -10C over southern north west region, extending to manchester over north east england, midlands and south east.

Yes HC looks intresting all FI at the momemnt

lets hope the trend continues

C.S

[Tucco]

The fuss is it is pounding Cumbria mate, the rain is really heavy here at the moment but does ease of at times.

Yes very wet in parts of Cumbria. 66mm so far in Kirkby Stephen. It will be much higher across higher ground. Appleby looks certain to flood soon. Heavy rain across Howgills and Pennines unlike 2009. This will be a much bigger test for Carlisle's flood defences than 2009 which didn't really effect the Eden Valley.

[Chris.R]

well hardly any rain here, yet again it seems to have missed Liverpool bay as HC predicted. It's the temperatures that are amazing at the moment currently at 13.6c with a strong SWly wind.

[HotCuppa]

Please can you show some charts to back up your post...

i cannot see anything on the charts sugesting snow shower,s for this region

from Monday

C.S

Yes HC looks intresting all FI at the momemnt

lets hope the trend continues

C.S

What worries me is the positive NAO, core of the blocking is over Northern and Central Canada, and I just can't really see that changing in the next week or two. The areas that where hit the Hardest in December, are stuck under this monster mildness and while there will be one or two cold spells, but overall compared to December the coming cold spells will be a mere pittance to what we've had. I've seen reports for February to follow the same pattern as this month, with the exception of a few wintry periods between now and then. I just can't see the blocking suddenly switching back to this side of the Atlantic and combined with a positive NAO it doesn't look good.

[Thunder Snow]

Yes very wet in parts of Cumbria. 66mm so far in Kirkby Stephen. It will be much higher across higher ground. Appleby looks certain to flood soon. Heavy rain across Howgills and Pennines unlike 2009. This will be a much bigger test for Carlisle's flood defences than 2009 which didn't really effect the Eden Valley.

http://www.kirkbystephen.net/eden/live.php Yer mate the river there is really high, its going to be an intresting few hours. However the met has the rain dying soon on there future radar is this true.

[AderynCoch]

well hardly any rain here, yet again it seems to have missed Liverpool bay as HC predicted. It's the temperatures that are amazing at the moment currently at 13.6c with a strong SWly wind.

Indeed. Unfortunately for Cumbria, this is very much what happened in November 2009: we were sheltered by the Welsh mountains but Cumbria was exposed to the full-force of the rain.

Already the Eden looks to be a lot higher than it was yesterday. Best of luck to the affected areas.

[HotCuppa]

This coming week, temps will slip down, as High Pressure moves over us, but as it does so it also dries up. This should allow temperatures to sink back to lower levels, and night time frosts from clear skies during the week, will also help lower the temperature so that by next weekend, we may end up seeing rogue snow showers developing in off the North East coast. Yes we've been here before, and no it's not the direction we'd want. But right about now, with a signal from the GFS at last showing something towards the end of the month, it's better than nothing or I should say better than this monster mildness we've had. But for how long it will stay if it happens is anyone's guess. I reckon we'll be lucky to get 24/48 hours out of it...unless we see significant changes over the next 7 days. I'd love to see the same kind of blocking going on over Northern / Central Canada, with low pressure after low pressure smacking into the provinces.

The only greenery left in Canada right now, is over some parts of Vancouver Island..and thats set to change today with heavy snow for BC and coastal areas.

Edited January 15, 2011 by HotCuppa

[carlisle 321]

looking at that webcam the river has rose almost a metre in the last few hours and we still have 18 hours worth of rain to come off the hills and surge here this is going to put our defences to the limit i think as it is pounding the source of the eden with very heavy rain just as it did in january 2005

[k19]

The fuss is it is pounding Cumbria mate, the rain is really heavy here at the moment but does ease of at times.

That may be the case but the Met office has given my area a warning too, and it suggests it should be raining somewhat more than it is. I'm not complaining, its a good thing if anything, but I just don't see what the met office thought was going to happen.

[dodge]

Mild, wet and dull. Rains pepped up in intensity here in the last few hours, although probably just a sprinkling compared to what parts of Cumbria are getting. Hope the flood defences hold up. Thankfully I don't live near a river, and we're pretty high up so the flooding possibilities here are negligible.

[damianslaw]

Not too sure how much rain we have seen in the past 12 hours but I suspect at least a couple of inches has fallen.

The rivers are now in full swell and spate and with the prospect of another 18 hours of rain, it isn't looking good for these parts.

In Kendal the River Kent is very high - eerie echos of Nov 19th 2009, it didn't take too long for it to quickly rise and flood parts of Burneside and Kendal. I am very much not expecting a repeat of Nov 19th 2009, but I do expect the flood watch warnings to become flood warnings in the coming hours.

Tomorrow afternoon and evening will be the telling time, once the rain clears it takes a few hours for all the rain off the fells to fully drain into the major river systems. Some rivers like the Kent will peak earlier than longer rivers such as the Eden, Caldew and Cocker/Derwent.

I expect many local roads to be impassible this time tomorrow and some major ones will also be suffering.

One positive is the rain hasn't been constantly heavy, it seems to come in heavy and then moderate bursts. Late morning saw some very heavy bursts, however, early afternoon brought lighter bursts, right now it is pepping up again - the intensity following the ebbs and flows of the wave features developing along the front.

Its been a day for hiding indoors - a real dark mid winter day. Its pitch black outside now.

[Rainy]

That may be the case but the Met office has given my area a warning too, and it suggests it should be raining somewhat more than it is. I'm not complaining, its a good thing if anything, but I just don't see what the met office thought was going to happen.

Get your wellies and mac on K and come up the road and venture uphill. Better bring a torch too as it's been dark since about 3.30pm.

Still throwing it down. Brooks are roaring. Not a soul, nor any wildlife out. Unless those walkers I saw earlier are still out there. Surely they will have given up by now.

Looks a lot worse north of here. Eden catchment will be manic.