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North West England - Slightly Less Cold Spell Discussion Part 21


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Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire

Not posted in a while.

Things are not looking too splendid for another cold spell. It's all a matter of "ifs" at the moment for our region, let alone the rest of England.

The Jetstream wants to stay to our south til at least 240 hours. Heights put us under the 528 line around 123 hours. That being said it's

unlikely to be snow, due to us being under a westerly component, bringing rain and maybe sleet and hill snow to upper levels across the

northwest, Temps don't want to really budge from 6/7C over the next 2 weeks especially at lower levels.

Night time temps look as they do now, with the average being 4C. However across the Canadian maritimes (Nova Scotia, Labrador) it's

been snowing pretty much non stop (albeit light) for the past week, and it looks to intensify during our next 2 weeks of mildness.

There is a definite corrolation between the Canadian Maritimes and the UK's weather. When it's mild and rainy there, its cold and snowy

here, and thats been pretty much the case for a great many years. So I always check the weather out there in the Maritimes, then check

them for the UK, it's usually a pretty good guide to be honest.

My concern is that there is no 'strong' signal for cold weather. Is winter over for us in England? I honestly can't say, there is no advanced

signal in my book we are about to be plunged into another cold spell, in fact quite the revere. That's not to say that right at the end of

the month we might not see another deep cold spell...but even at this range i'd still expect to see one of the models plumping for it, and

they just aren't.

Edited by HotCuppa
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Posted
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowageddon and a new ice age. Then a summer long bbq heatwave!
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL

Not posted in a while.

Things are not looking too splendid for another cold spell. It's all a matter of "ifs" at the moment for our region, let alone the rest of England.

The Jetstream wants to stay to our south til at least 240 hours. Heights put us under the 528 line around 123 hours. That being said it's

unlikely to be snow, due to us being under a westerly component, bringing rain and maybe sleet and hill snow to upper levels across the

northwest, Temps don't want to really budge from 6/7C over the next 2 weeks especially at lower levels.

Night time temps look as they do now, with the average being 4C. However across the Canadian maritimes (Nova Scotia, Labrador) it's

been snowing pretty much non stop (albeit light) for the past week, and it looks to intensify during our next 2 weeks of mildness.

There is a definite corrolation between the Canadian Maritimes and the UK's weather. When it's mild and rainy there, its cold and snowy

here, and thats been pretty much the case for a great many years. So I always check the weather out there in the Maritimes, then check

them for the UK, it's usually a pretty good guide to be honest.

My concern is that there is no 'strong' signal for cold weather. Is winter over for us in England? I honestly can't say, there is no advanced

signal in my book we are about to be plunged into another cold spell, in fact quite the revere. That's not to say that right at the end of

the month we might not see another deep cold spell...but even at this range i'd still expect to see one of the models plumping for it, and

they just aren't.

Its pretty much the kind of pattern a few of us have harped on about for quite sometime now and although I dont think hieghts to the NE is option just yet with LP's tending to come from the west then swing to our NE, I wont write off the rest of winter because I dont feel La nina will keep its grip on global weather patterns which is evident now. For me its going to be interesting what the eastward propergation of convection is going to do to the pattern over the pacific and wether the MJO event will push warm stts futher east in the pacific, will we see a a drastic weakening of negative wind anomlies more so over the pacific region ?.

For now i think we should hope for some protection from the atlantic in the form of the said ridge with the HP as shown here on the UKMO 144: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UN144-21.GIF?12-06. On the ECM this morning, this possible feature is lessend due to the LP coming from the east coast of the usa seemingly more advanced. Though generally the theme of attemped atlantic ridging is still evident as the ECM shows HP trying to ridge in behind that same LP system up towards the labrador sea before another cyclone is cast off from the PV residing over nothern canada: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-168.GIF?12-12

Actually despite the lack of heights to the NE on the ECM run its quite interesting as we end up with another HP cell moving north over the Newfoundland area which help to stop cyclones developing in that area so a blocked atlantic outlook is definately the theme of the models. Another point to mention is another round of WAA up through Alaska towards the pole and with it hieght rises towards the pole again, which is something I really want to sea as Low heights over the pole = strengthening of zonal winds, usually there after a strengthening of mid lattitude jetstreams and cold locked away towards the poles. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-216.GIF?12-12.

Yesterday I was thinking that a top 10 mild CET January was possible and still is, but today there are some good signs to defer this and although I think Janurary will remain influenced by the atlantic and mild over all and any cold blasts are more likely to come from the NW rather than the NE later in the month. Will it be a February full of Snowmen or month of BBQ's & rain macks ? too early to say tbh.

:D

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

FI is pretty amazing it must be said. Severe cold if that came off!

Northerly, followed by NE'erly, followed by E'erly followed by NW'erly.

I wish. That spell would = win for the whole country to get some snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

it's a miled day today. There was a torrential convective shower earlier. I was half expecting thunder at one point. It sertanly feels thundery today. temp around 9c.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle
Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Nah probably wont be right.

GFS is rubbish when it comes to precip.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

very miled at the moment as it usually is here during atlantic westerlies. Currently 11.5c!

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Posted
  • Location: Maryport, Cumbria, UK
  • Location: Maryport, Cumbria, UK

Nah probably wont be right.

GFS is rubbish when it comes to precip.

- exact amounts may not be too accurate at this range, but timing and length of wet spell has been progged consistently for several days now. It looks like between 24 and 30 hours of continuous rain for Cumbria. That's going to add up to around 5" over the fells from past experience.

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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia

Went walkies earlier on and was astonished to see ice still remaining on the park lakes and streams. It's only wafer thin now, but the birds are still able to sit on top of it. The ice must have been around since late November.

There was also some sort of steam effect going on, presumably due to the mild air meeting the ice, which created a very low layer of mist. I wish I brought my camera with me: it stopped today being a total write-off weatherwise.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

- exact amounts may not be too accurate at this range, but timing and length of wet spell has been progged consistently for several days now. It looks like between 24 and 30 hours of continuous rain for Cumbria. That's going to add up to around 5" over the fells from past experience.

I don't buy that.

There will be breaks in between the rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snowy in winter. Hot and stormy in summer.
  • Location: Preston, Lancashire

Very mild but cloudy today. 9.8C

Looking like a very wet and windy weekend ahead. METO advisories out for Lancs & Cumbria.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Sick of this mild mess, 10.6c currently misty and damp. Weekend is looking lively with gales and 60mph+ gusts here on the coast on saturday and remaining windy throughout sunday, with the risk of flooding looking quite likely with a conveyor belt of cloud and rain continuous, there will be a few nervous people here in cumbria as the river levels are rising. I hope it is not to bad...

Very unsettled indeed and the wettest and windiest weather for quite some time.

Edited by james12
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle

Sick of this mild mess, 10.6c currently misty and damp. Weekend is looking lively with gales and 60mph+ gusts here on the coast on saturday and remaining windy throughout sunday, with the risk of flooding looking quite likely with a conveyor belt of cloud and rain continuous, there will be a few nervous people here in cumbria as the river levels are rising. I hope it is not to bad...

Very unsettled indeed and the wettest and windiest weather for quite some time.

Yer james im already sick of it, but i do like a good storm so saturday and sunday should be intresting. I do also agree with the CONTINUOUS rain for Northern England. Plus most of the heaviest rain looks reserved for Cumbria, sothey will indeed be VERY nervous people about. I for one would like to know if these new flood defences actually work in carlisle. Water has to go somewhere right? :aggressive:

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester, UK
  • Location: Wigan, Greater Manchester, UK

sick of this already!!

I suppose if we see some extreme weather at the weekend (storms) it could be better but at the moment i don't think i can cope until late february/december 2011 :(

All in all we have only had one proper snowfall day, quite dissapointing being honest as we had the coldest december in 100 years!!

No signs at all from the GFS either, this could be the mildest start to a year ever!! Hopefully we will see a big change in tomorrows models, i doubt it though cray.gif

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Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

Dear mild mushy weather,

Please could you just bog of for a while so we can enjoy the rest of winter outside making snowmen instead of posting and looking on here every 5 minutes to see if winters over or not.

we are not asking for much but would like another couple (hint not being greedy) cms of snow. i hope we can resolve this matter.

regards wheresmysnow (no thats not me being cheeky thats actually my name)

please reply to.

mr and mrs snowhope

3 always green rd.

LANCASHIRE.

ENGLAND.

BONKERSBONKERSBONKERSBONKERSBONKERSBONKERSBONKERSBONKERSBONKERSBONKERSBONKERS...............................I HAVE GONE.

Edited by wheresmysnow
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Posted
  • Location: Teesdale,Co Durham. 360m asl
  • Location: Teesdale,Co Durham. 360m asl

BBC said there not sure how long the rain will sit over us, could be 24 could be nearly 36 hours.

Looking at the Faxs I would expect the rainfall event to follow a pattern more of 2005 than 2009. In the 2009 event the extreme rainfall was focused on the central lakes. In 2005 event ranfall as widespread across the whole of Cumbria.

Intial prolonged orograpic rainfall for Central Lakes dome.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif

Widespread heavy rainfall

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

Just going by the faxs I would say flooding more of issue in Eden Valley due higher rainfall totals Upper Eden/Shap Fell. Heaviest rainfall for Eden valley was the day prior to flood event focused on Borrowdale.

Still I wouldn't expect the River Eden to reach 2005 levels.

Edited by Tucco
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Posted
  • Location: Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snowy in winter. Hot and stormy in summer.
  • Location: Preston, Lancashire

Very mild night with no breeze whatsoever. Currently 10C. Way too hot in the house at 25C so heating definitely getting turned right down.

I've just been out with the dogs without needing to wear my coat for the first time in months.

As much as I love snow it's nice not to have to dress up like the michelin man everytime to go outside. Sometimes you can have too much of a good thing. I guess I like Heinz 57 weather afterall :winky:

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Looking at the Faxs I would expect the rainfall event to follow a pattern more of 2005 than 2009. In the 2009 event the extreme rainfall was focused on the central lakes. In 2005 event ranfall as widespread across the whole of Cumbria.

Intial prolonged orograpic rainfall for Central Lakes dome.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.gif

Widespread heavy rainfall

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

Just going by the faxs I would say flooding more of issue in Eden Valley due higher rainfall totals Upper Eden/Shap Fell. Heaviest rainfall for Eden valley was the day prior to flood event focused on Borrowdale.

Still I wouldn't expect the River Eden to reach 2005 levels.

Doubt upper eden catchment will see the heaviest of all the rain over Cumbria. We have a south westerly feed, it will be south westerly upslopes which catch the heaviest stuff, the cocker and derwent catchements alongside the duddon and esk catchments will see the heaviest stuff, similiar to the Nov 2009 event. The Kent catchment also looks like seeing some very high totals, not good news for towns like Cockermouth, Keswick and Kendal, the rivers cocker, derwent and kent will quickly rise, they are all preety high as I speak, it won't take much for widespread flooding to take hold if we see some of the totals being suggested - i.e. 200m such as John Hammond mentioned this evening, I can see those weather warning being upgraded preety soon, there are signs the front is going to develop a wave feature and be reluctant to clear these parts on Sunday - it is a very grim outlook for the Lake District.

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