New Model Analysts' Thread

[meerkat63]

A very good idea indeed. As someone who refrains from posting on the model thread - but does read through it every day (in winter at least) the new thread should hopefully save a lot of time and be informative in the process.

As regards the various concerns which some have over the new thread - firstly I am fairly confident that model output discussion will not be diluted. I hope that people are not too hasty in forming an opinion on this one - because at present it is becoming a little quieter in there - but this is purely due to the fact that the weather is turning milder in the short-term. Nothing else.

I also think that the number of posters invited is about right and the contributors involved are those whose posts I make an effort to seek out in the model thread - precisely because they give the best, most reasoned and realistic view of what is likely to develop.

One other point. I do find it strange that some are complaining that the so-called cream of the crop now have a locked model analyst's thread. As if it is a case of 'them and us'. Well I have to say that I totally disagree with that viewpoint. Apart from being fairly infantile and short-sighted (in my opinion) I also find such a stance to some degree quite arrogant. I know for instance that I do not have the technical expertise, depth of knowledge and level of understanding attributed to our more experienced posters and in that sense rather than develop an inferiority complex and throw toys out of prams - I try to learn from reading posts by those who really do know what they are talking about. If the new thread makes that somewhat easier - and I believe it will - all the better.

Well done Netweather and thanks again for a fantastic idea!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Theoretically its sound but I think we are seeing the pitfalls already. With full time work, commitments etc there isn't an awlful lot to read at present. Unless it picks up it is IMO unnecessary. I agree that it is nice to see well prepared posts readily accessible, I too sift rapidly through the model thread and by pass a lot of posts and some very good posts from different members can and do get missed and lost in the myre...so a chance it must have but it needs to pick up to keep any interest generated.

This is not a dig at the invited posters...I really understand time constraints.

However, I think currently nothing has been gained.

regards

BFTP

Edited January 8, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Lewis]

Greeted as a good thing by some members, but personally I don't think it will work.

The way I look at it is that your just making it worse for the mods, giving them more work, and more things to control, at peak times thing's are very busy! I mean 99.9% of the time it's posts from them members who you have selected that bring a sense of normality, lay the platform, and put the water on the fire from some members you could say.

I like discussions, as does other members, I like to reply to Nick Sussex's posts and TEITS's etc,

I think the best way to do it, would be a daily thread or weekly, the members you have chosen should give a good analysis of what the models show/and what to expect, get a view from each one of them members.

Then allow normal members to view it, with the chance to post and ask questions at selected times.

This idea you have, makes no sense really, and it's taking the name "forum" away from it, it's limiting what other members can do.

Regards,

Lewis

Edited January 8, 2011 by Morning Glory

[lorenzo]

I think its working fine, it is clear and concise, I noticed the model thread was quieter, but crossover is evident already.

Blast you make a good point about time constraints though and how the analysis one has been slow to take off, posts like Chiono's one last night highlight the potential this thread has, even if they are replicated in different parts of the forum it is good to see broader posts somewhere between the in depth and usual model thread ones.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I don't think the new thread was ever envisaged to be an all guns blazing, action-packed model fest. At the risk of repeating myself, it's aimed to be somewhere where someone with a few minutes to spare can catch a quick update on what's going on. Were there other ways of doing this? Yeah, probably. Will it evolve? Probably!

I think the best way to do it, would be a daily thread or weekly, the members you have chosen should give a good analysis of what the models show/and what to expect, get a view from each one of them members.

Then allow normal members to view it, with the chance to post and ask questions at selected times.

Is that not what we are doing, just with two threads?

[TEITS]

Just want to say that I shall still be posting on both threads.

What im planning on doing is posting a summary of the 12Zs and I may do a summary of the 0Zs in the morning. However the 06Z/18Z runs I shall be posting in the usual model discussion thread.

I hope members don't take the attitude of "them and us" because that isn't the purpose of the new thread. I see it that any members or guests who quickly want a general summary of the model output can go and view it in this new thread. For example I may post 6 comments on the 18Z in the model discussion thread but on this new thread it shall be just one post but with far more detail.

Im sure their are many members, guests who may not have the time to read all the posts in the model discussion thread and if this is the case then they can quickly view a summary of the current model output in this new thread.

Worth also mentioning that I will be less biased towards cold weather in this new thread. :lol:

[Osbourne One-Nil]

And Mushy might mention the S word....you never know!

[Fozfoster]

And Mushy might mention the S word....you never know!

What SOUTHWESTERLYS.

[chionomaniac]

Greeted as a good thing by some members, but personally I don't think it will work.

Those that post dribble in the normal model output discussion, will continue to do so. Then when people look in the new one from the outside, as they cannot post, and especially if they don't agree with something, they'll simply bring it into the normal general model output discussion, so in affect nothing changes, then you will have people getting upset, and retaliating, and then you will get people arguing, and saying, hey this is not fair, the rest of us other 90% of members left outside the new thread, who post fine, who have an input, are still left to put up with a load of crap, yet the select few it's plain sailing all the way.

Don't get me wrong, the posters/members you have selected I value greatly, but surely there's another way of addressing this.

The way I look at it is that your just making it worse for the mods, giving them more work, and more things to control, at peak times thing's are very busy! I mean 99.9% of the time it's posts from them members who you have selected that bring a sense of normality, lay the platform, and put the water on the fire from some members you could say.

I like discussions, as does other members, I like to reply to Nick Sussex's posts and TEITS's etc, but instead I'll just be replying to a lot of people that don't know nothing about the models, that are asking the questions all the time, and before you know it, it's just like a huge regional thread, with the only difference being the title of the thread.

Regards,

Lewis

Lewis, I think it is worth trying to address the points that you raise.

Firstly, all of the posters asked to post in the analysis thread are still going to post in the general model thread, and so the only dilution seen will be the usual when the outlook is mild. In future I will try to copy my posts from the analysis thread into the model thread.

Secondly, as has already been pointed out there are many other competent and knowledgeable posters who input regularly into the model thread and to suggest that these 'don't know nothing about the models' (siq) is deeply insulting to those posters. Are you suggesting that any posters who may not have the same understanding as yourself are not worthy of a reply? If anything, I find it worse when a poster assumes to have a lot more knowledge in certain areas than they actually have and can then mislead others. Hopefully the analysis thread will prevent this from occurring.

And finally, I don't feel that you are in any position to comment on what will make more work for the mods, do you?

[len]

I think it's a great idea.

I personally stopped visiting the TWO site because of the effort of skimming through pages of banter, one-liners, chit-chat and squabble to find some grains of informative nourishment.

And I have to admit I skim a lot of posts in the NW Model thread, particularly about peoples' hunches, feelings, gut-feelings, if-onlys, and cheerleading posts for various models or synoptics.

But might this "expert" thread duplicate, or conflict with, the Technical Thread (which is a Godsend in itself)?

Edited January 8, 2011 by len

[Thundery wintry showers]

I agree with the suggestion of copying posts from the invited-only thread into the general MOD and will try to remember to do that in future.

[Upgrade]

Sorry I do not agree with the new thread. Surely everyone has the right to say what they like in any thread and yes it very much comes across as a them and us scenario. Net Weather advertises the forum as one of the most friendly and informative on the web and I don't see how a thread where only a certain number of invited select few will be allowed to air there views will enhance this website.

Basically this site is for amateur's that enjoying discussing the weather so it's meant to be fun and not lets turn into the met office where as so to speak the senior management get to speak and make all the important decision's while the "peasants" have no input.

Thank You

James

I agree with this. Part of the enjoyment of the model thread is that members old and new can post and join in.

The atmosphere in the new thread might be sterile and the fun and random spontaniety might go out of the model thread.

I agree that there can be irritating posts for the mods to delete, but they do a good job and as long as they keep control (as they always seem to ) yes there will be some "chaff" posts but come on - its not that annoying to read someone's uneducated "stab" at the models alongside someone more expert.

I'm not calling for a free for all with the model thread as no-one wants another BBC Snowwatch but i think having a "club" of self selected experts in a separate thread might be a mistake.

[Jayces]

I don't think the new thread was ever envisaged to be an all guns blazing, action-packed model fest. At the risk of repeating myself, it's aimed to be somewhere where someone with a few minutes to spare can catch a quick update on what's going on. Were there other ways of doing this? Yeah, probably. Will it evolve? Probably!

Is that not what we are doing, just with two threads?

I like the idea of this but it already has 3 posts in there that IMHO should be removed as they are a couple of lines and don't really add anything to the discussion.

I like to read about models without having to go through irrelavant posts so maybe have a rule that the contributers of that thread can only post model anaysis with charts etc that make sense to everyone and anything else gets deleted?

[Osbourne One-Nil]

To be fair, it probably wouldn't be the best idea for me to delete posts put into the thread by people kind enough to volunteer to contribute to it! However, seeing as the posts have served their purpose now...

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

All very melodramatic.....

I think the new invited thread is proving v good. It's prob only a bit slow because the weather is gearing up for a fairly mundane phase. But great to have all the informed and calm postings in one dedicated place

OK seen as though non of the mods will help out, seeing as though OON won't help out, and seeing as though I sent a private message to paul this morning, and seeing as though I cannot report posts for some reason I have no choice to post this in here where it will be seen, but no doubt be ignored I assume!

Please remove the last line of chionomaniac's post please.

He has no right to post that or Judge me, as I have no right to post or judge anyone else. If I do that mine is the first to be deleted, or edited by a mod. It's humiliating me on the thread, and it's not fair. I feel that this is some kind of setup.

I come to post and air my views, it's chiono who get personal with a little stab at the end, he's no better no different to me, accept for living in an upper class area than me which makes no difference.

So I'm asking you mods, please can you do that for me and remove it? As it's not fair, I don't want to argue with Chiono and 1 year ago I would have given him a piece of my mind, but I just cannot be bothered with bickering, i'm sick of snipes, digs, i'm here to talk about the weather, not to be downgraded or humiliated by someone.

regards

lewis

[Lewis]

All very melodramatic.....

I think the new invited thread is proving v good. It's prob only a bit slow because the weather is gearing up for a fairly mundane phase. But great to have all the informed and calm postings in one dedicated place

I agree,

I have taken to it already, as it's not messy, and you can see the good points/analysis of the best posters straight away, without having to scroll through lots of content.

Model thread has gone quiet though.

Lewis

[Great Plum]

I think it's working well at the moment...

Edited January 8, 2011 by Great Plum

[Lewis]

I think it's working well at the moment...

Agreed the new model thread is certainly working well, if we end up pulling the colder stuff later this month, it's going to be interesting watching for us all, with TEITS and Steve Murr in there, love their ramping!

Lewis

Edited January 8, 2011 by Storm Force Lewis

[Nick L]

I agree with this. Part of the enjoyment of the model thread is that members old and new can post and join in.

The atmosphere in the new thread might be sterile and the fun and random spontaniety might go out of the model thread.

I agree that there can be irritating posts for the mods to delete, but they do a good job and as long as they keep control (as they always seem to ) yes there will be some "chaff" posts but come on - its not that annoying to read someone's uneducated "stab" at the models alongside someone more expert.

I'm not calling for a free for all with the model thread as no-one wants another BBC Snowwatch but i think having a "club" of self selected experts in a separate thread might be a mistake.

This is the argument that I just do not understand. We CAN still do this in the normal model thread! Members of the Analysts thread have already said they will continue to post in the normal thread.

I wish people would just give it a chance before passing judgement.

[meerkat63]

Model thread has gone quiet though.

Lewis

Due to milder weather in the offing as I mentioned earlier. Nothing to do with the new thread. Model output discussion is always at it's busiest during or just preceding the onset of cold/snow.

This is the argument that I just do not understand. We CAN still do this in the normal model thread! Members of the Analysts thread have already said they will continue to post in the normal thread.

I wish people would just give it a chance before passing judgement.

Totally agree. I think that the existing thread has actually been enhanced by the pasting over of some more in-depth posts perhaps originally intended for the new thread.

[Cheese Rice]

Okay well apart from the fact you didn't invite me (as I am most respected member on net weather )....

I don't fully agree with how this thread works, I've got some suggestions, it's up to you guys (mods) if you want to implement them.

* The concept is fine but as some have suggested this runs the risk of becoming a duplicate of the model thread e.g. Nick S: Blah, blahh, blah blah... and thats the model round up for today! Mushymanrob: Interesting post, but doesn't ...blah blah.... result in blahblah? Oldmetman: Actually I think.. blah blah. You see what I'm getting at? Even replies amongst the 'chosen ones' mustn't be allowed.

* Not particularly important but I think this thread should be sticky as it's the most important thread for visitors

* Is there any other format instead of the typical forum layout? The current format is messy imo (for what the thread is for). If you could select model evaluation for "X" day this would make the thread far more organized.

* If the model evaluation varies between members then there will be confusion as you can't say which is right, so at the top of every page it should be stressed that these are the opinions, this will vary between posters. Hopefully the voting system will reflect which post most agree with but I suspect it will be based on who's outlook is coldest.

Anyway, good idea, hopefully it works well

Edited January 8, 2011 by cheeserice

[Rustynailer]

Excellent, it has done the equivalent of removing all the adverts from satellite TV, those are the people I want to "read" when I get in from work with a cup of tea.

Russ

[weatherguy]

Can I just say that the new analyst thread is working very well IMO, it's much easier to see the actual analysis on the models each day now; personally I enjoyed reading a little bit of banter too but if you're pushed for time it's good to read that to get a feel for what the models are specifically showing, then if you have more time go and read the other model thread to see the wider opinion of others. I do think it could probably do with literally just a couple more in there however...Apart from that, it seems to be working just as intended, great idea

[noggin]

The new thread is EXCELLENT.

No unnecessary bits, no emotional outpourings, no petty arguments, just facts and reasonings and informed opinions on what is looking possible given what the models show.

Am I allowed to also mention that the posts are well written, which makes them far more pleasant to read?

I give it ten out of ten and a great big .

[Interitus]

OON's introduction to the new thread states that it will "hopefully give a concise insight for those of us wanting a quick-stop update" - which is just as well because there have only been two posts today, from first thing this morning, and only 18 overall.

Meantime some of the invited members have posted numerous times in the normal model discussion, so what is the point?

Maybe it would be better to have a more 'official' netweather statement of the model analysis if this one-stop shop is wanted and just keep the normal model thread well modded.