Summer 2011

[lukemc]

Hi,

i have a feeling that the upcoming summer could end up being a rather good one - i.e. warmer and dryer than average. Just a hunch of course, but the reason for this is that we have had 4 quite mediocre summers in succession and looking at the evidence from the past it seems that it is quite rare to get more than 4 poor summers in a row (I think that happened in the 1960s). In the 1980s we had 4 wet and/or cool summers in succesion and that run was ended by the belter of a summer of 1989. 1989 was again followed by another quite hot summer in 1990. Was 1989 also La Nina or La Nina trending the neutral? So does anyone think that we could possibly get a summer similar to 1989 especially if the La Nina signal starts to weaken as we approach the summer months? I would be delighted by such a summer as I live in the North West of England where the last 4 summers have been somewhat poorer than some other parts of the country, especially the South East. For us however the last 2 summers (2009 and 2010) had been decent until early July and then it went downhill from then. So it would be nice to get a consistantly warm and dry summer for most of the country for a change, especially in more northern parts.

Luke

[Alex]

QBO anologues for the November-December period rolled forward one year..

2007

2005

1998

1991

1988

1986

1981

1979

1976

1974

1970

1964

1962

1960

1958

1956

MEI + QBO

1976

The only anologue which matches both the MEI and QBO data is 1975 which lead to the summer of 1976, let us hope that this anologue sticks.

Summer blizzard, interesting stuff but what was 75-76 an el niño or la Nina period? And where did we sit in January 76 with the strength of either force? Cheers

[Alex]

QBO anologues for the November-December period rolled forward one year..

2007

2005

1998

1991

1988

1986

1981

1979

1976

1974

1970

1964

1962

1960

1958

1956

MEI + QBO

1976

The only anologue which matches both the MEI and QBO data is 1975 which lead to the summer of 1976, let us hope that this anologue sticks.

Summer blizzard, interesting stuff but what was 75-76 an el niño or la Nina period? And where did we sit in January 76 with the strength of either force? Cheers

[summer blizzard]

Summer blizzard, interesting stuff but what was 75-76 an el niño or la Nina period? And where did we sit in January 76 with the strength of either force? Cheers

Firstly i will say that the 1976 anologue will almost certainly dissapear by summer.

In reagrds to January 1976, very similar conditions with a moderate to strong La Nina during winter. The La Nina event collapsed quickly during spring so that by summer values were neutral/weak El Nino.

[Alex]

Why do u think that SB? Is the La Nina event showing any signs of collapsing or lowering ? Cheers

[summer blizzard]

Why do u think that SB? Is the La Nina event showing any signs of collapsing or lowering ? Cheers

I actually think that we will still see weak La Nina values during summer, it is the anologues for the MEI and QBO which suggest that the year of 1976 could be a good match.

[Alex]

So if the analogues match and we see a weak la Nina what is this better suited to in year and weather patterns? What Do you think SB?

[summer blizzard]

So if the analogues match and we see a weak la Nina what is this better suited to in year and weather patterns? What Do you think SB?

If La Nina stays and the +QBO persists, i can see a cool but dry pattern occuring. If La Nina stays and a -QBO develops, we can write of summer. Could go in any direction at this stage.

[conor123]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png

Its a shame we always get charts like this wasted on Winter, but come Summer you just know nowadays it will be September before you get a long spell of sunny weather again :lol:

Edited January 12, 2011 by conor123

[Milhouse]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1801.png

Its a shame we always get charts like this wasted on Winter, but come Summer you just know nowadays it will be September before you get a long spell of sunny weather again :lol:

Plus, looking back at the last 4 years all the charts that would give lots of settled and hot weather are restricted to Autumn when all hopes of something hot are diminishing. Late September 2008 is a prime example. Imagine if we had these sort of charts in July.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2008/avn/Rtavn00120080927.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/2008/avn/Rtavn00120080920.png

[summer blizzard]

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

1991

1989

1979

1972

1971

1969

1968

1965

1963

1962

1958

1952

To generate some discusion here is the anologue set for the Novemeber-December period for the PDO (Pacific Decadel Occilation). Along with La Nina/El Nino it is a major Pacific driver. I have rolled them forward one year.

Certainly some interesting winters there however from what i have heard all the summers were howlers.

Still some support for 1976 as an anologue, November and December 1975 both saw very negative values which were positive by July.

[Nick L]

Give me any summer of the past few years please

[summer blizzard]

la nina + qbo

1976

La Nina + PDO

1989

1972

1968

1965

1963

QBO + PDO

1991

1979

1962

1958

Combining the data we see lots of anologues which match two out of three.

[AderynCoch]

Give me any summer of the past few years in Seville please

Me too!

[Thundery wintry showers]

any summer of the past few years in Seville

Having gone on holiday to the Provence region of France last summer, I think "too hot and too dry" springs to mind from my perspective!

[AderynCoch]

I was in Seville for a couple of days in mid-July and it was fantastic. The high temperatures felt comfortable due to the low humidity, you just have to make sure you drink enough water. Shanghai in July on the other hand is a sauna!

[Nick L]

I was in Seville for a couple of days in mid-July and it was fantastic. The high temperatures felt comfortable due to the low humidity, you just have to make sure you drink enough water. Shanghai in July on the other hand is a sauna!

Average high of 35c? Eurgh, vile.

I don't want to have to drink a litre of water every 10 minutes, I want it to be relatively cool and comfortable! Low 20s with sunshine would be my perfect summer with the odd storm thrown in. I don't really want a deluge summer, just anything other than the likes of Aug 2003, July 2006 etc.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I was in Seville for a couple of days in mid-July and it was fantastic. The high temperatures felt comfortable due to the low humidity, you just have to make sure you drink enough water. Shanghai in July on the other hand is a sauna!

I think it depends on what degree of heat your body can tolerate- some people are more tolerant than others, and while we can all acclimatise up to a point, again that point varies from individual to individual. I'm a lot more tolerant of heat than I used to be- an average monthly maximum of 25C with occasional hot spells in the 30-35C range (as is common over much of central continental Europe) is fine as far as I'm concerned- but an average monthly maximum of 30-35C still gets too much for me after a few days of it.

In addition I prefer the sunshine to be broken up by showers/storms from time to time, so again that promotes the central European climate over the Mediterranean one, although for those who prefer hot dry re-runs of 1976 over periodic thundery interruptions it will be the opposite way round.

[Isolated Frost]

Ideal Summer's day.

The Setup:

Large High over much of most of Eastern and Central Europe, and High Pressure towards the Mid-Atlantic, but the Europe HP shapes in like a 'frisbee', from Egypt to Iceland, preventing Arctic North-Westerlies. South Easterlies from Algeria and Egypt move in, with low humidities (50-60% under clear skies at day, 75-85% under clear skies at night), 18-22C upper air temperatures, 570 Dam Line, Frisbee breaks and gives an anti-cyclone above Eastern and Southern areas.

Ground Wind Direction: SE in the North and East, SSE and S on the South and South West.

Early June Day, sunrise at 4am, set at 930pm, hazy morning, clear throughout. Anti-Cyclone slowly moves closer to the NE coast, as marked in the afternoon.

The Day:

0000: 15C / 10C DP Clear 1mph ESE 1027mb

0100: 13C / 8C DP Clear 1mph ESE 1026mb

0200: 12C / 6C DP Clear Calm 1026mb

0300: 10C / 4C DP Clear 3mph East 1027mb

0400: 9C / 2C DP Clear Calm 1026mb

0500: 8C / 0C DP Haze Calm 1025mb

0600: 10C / 3C DP Haze 2mph ESE 1025mb

0700: 13C / 6C DP Haze 1mph SE 1024mb

0800: 15C / 9C DP Clear 3mph SE 1024mb

0900: 16C / 10C DP Clear 4mph SE 1023mb

1000: 18C / 13C DP Clear 3mph SSE 1024mb

1100: 21C / 16C DP Clear 4mph SE 1024mb

1200: 23C / 18C DP Clear Calm 1026mb

1300: 25C / 21C DP Clear 1mph SE 1029mb

1400: 26C / 21C DP Clear Calm 1034mb

1500: 26C / 22C DP Clear Calm 1036mb

1600: 27C / 23C DP Clear Calm 1036mb

1700: 29C / 25C DP Clear 3mph SSE 1037mb

1800: 28C / 23C DP Clear 2mph South 1037mb

1900: 25C / 19C DP Clear Calm 1036mb

2000: 23C / 17C DP Clear Calm 1036mb

2100: 21C / 15C DP Clear Calm 1036mb

2200: 19C / 13C DP Clear Calm 1035mb

2300: 16C / 10C DP Clear Calm 1034mb

0000: 14C / 7C DP Clear Calm 1034mb

Maximum Temperature: 30.5C @ 1720

Minimum Temperature: 7.7C @ 0450

Maximum Dew Point: 25.4C @ 1720

Minimum Dew Point: -0.4C @ 0440

Maximum Air Pressure: 1038mb @ 1810

Minimum Air Pressure: 1022.8mb @ 0900

Wasted my time here, ah well, got a whole weekend to relax!

[reef]

1200: 23C / 18C DP Clear Calm 1026mb

1300: 25C / 21C DP Clear 1mph SE 1029mb

1400: 26C / 21C DP Clear Calm 1034mb

1500: 26C / 22C DP Clear Calm 1036mb

1600: 27C / 23C DP Clear Calm 1036mb

1700: 29C / 25C DP Clear 3mph SSE 1037mb

1800: 28C / 23C DP Clear 2mph South 1037mb

1900: 25C / 19C DP Clear Calm 1036mb

That sounds like the recipe for a nightmare to me. 29C with a dewpoint of 25C gives a heat index of 39C, which is in the 'Extreme caution' catagory. Not to mention with no wind it'd feel much worse than even the hottest period of August 2003.

Fortunately even on the warmest days a dewpoint above 18-20C is quite rare in the UK.

[Cric_lancster]

I'd welcome a dry summer here. Anything that makes pitches better to bat on, produces quicker outfields, and surfaces that offer more turn! Similar to June last year would be nice. North Lancashire could do with some sunshine, the past 4 years have been generally quite dull, damp and cool. I couldn't believe the difference when I went down to Colchester last year in early July and all the outfields were parched with the pitches rock hard pancakes. And it was 30 degrees on the Friday of the first week of July there! Went back up to play on the Saturday to Lancaster, was about 17 degrees and sodden! A Jet to the far north and a series of big fat highs centred off the East coast please!

C.L.

[Milhouse]

Last year we went throught the whole cricket season without a single match called off here. Infact only 2 matches has rain interruptions. The season started off with some absolutely freezing conditions for cricket but from June onwards it became much better with some cracking Saturday afternoons in July where we reached the mid-high 20s. More of the same this year please.

[snowlover2009]

I think if will be a very dry summer and have the potential to be hot at times, I think the start of spring will be quite unsettled and cool, I think the spring will be an odd one with cold giving way to hot in a few days and vice versa, I don't particular like that kind of weather or pattern, when you want to go out and enjoy the sun and the next day it is cold. I think a classic summer, with thunderstorms at times, but nothing like 2006 and 2003 with records and 38c being recorded. Which ever way, we will get a decent season out of the two at the least, it is rare to get a poor spring and summer, even 2007 saw a decent spring, but it was also a crap summer and the worst.

[ZONE 51]

I would want a late wintery spring up to April, with hot thundery conditions reserved for late May, i am hoping for an April showers set up, something that we used to have in April! temperature hitting 61f(16c)-63f(17c) with clear blue skys and a groundheating sun that feels quite hot, building to thundery downpours, sharp intense with hail up to smallmarble rattling the car roofs!

[Isolated Frost]

IMO, Spring is for Spring, and February onwards should warm quickly, tis' why I like a continental climate akin to Germany, but it's all o' the fun of the British climate, right?!