Summer 2011

[Milhouse]

Yes, the jet stream got stuck in a rut and weather patterns became locked as a result. At least you were on the right side of the fence though: some of us didn't even make it to the end of June before the washout summer arrived with a vengeance. Three of the last four Julys here have been absolutely terrible, and the other (2008) was poor overall (though salvaged somewhat by a fine last week). I'm not sure I could bear five poor Julys in a row.

Last summer was a good one here. Even August managed to be a half decent month with temperatures still just about reaching average here. Add that to one of the warmest ever Julys and a sunny and warm June it wasnt a bad summer at all. We also surpassed 25c on numerous occasions which is very good compared to the previous 3 summers. Up until half way i would certainly have given it a 9/10. Come the end of August it had fallen to a 7.

[Winter Warmer]

looking foward to spring and summer now hopfully both will be warm so we can have plenty of bbq's.afew more thunderstorms would be nice too

[ZONE 51]

Myself i prefer different set ups, for spring i like early snow showers in march with blue skys and late frost, next i would want april to be convective with warm or hot feel of sunshine towards the later end of the month with temps a round 17-20c ,with may being anticyclonic, i do like the clear blue skys and calm winds, also a may thundery plume at the last week leading us into a hot june, and thundery convection at times, july and august very warm and sunny with rain at night to stop a drought! but day time shower and thunderstorms with night french ts imports.

[Milhouse]

I don't remember 2004 being a good summer. The second half of June and the bulk of July was indifferent and the August was a washout.

2004 was a summer divided into 3 sections. The first 2/3 of June gave some of the best summerlike weather of recent years. From about 19th June until 19th July it was very wet and cool with frequent deep depressions. I think we had a particularly wet and very cool spell round about the 7th. The end of July and August became warmer but stayed wet. So as the worst spell coincided with what should be the height of summer it goes down as an average-poor summer overall.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I thought 2010 was a decent summer in Norwich- June was a notably warm sunny month there (especially the first week and the 22nd onwards) and there were a couple of storms in the second week. July was remarkably warm there, and it was sunny until around the 10th, although the last week featured a lot of tedious dull dry weather. August however was dull cool and wet.

Up in Cleadon I'd place it in the "indifferent" category as June was warm and quite sunny but July was cloudy and windy and August was a fairly average to cool month.

I thought 2009 was a reasonable summer in Norwich as well, July wasn't the washout that it was in many other parts of the country (thundery downpours interspersed with slightly above average sunshine and quite warm) and then August, after quite a cloudy first half, contained some notably warm sunny weather in the third week in particular. It was a different story in the west and especially south-west where it was the third dull wet summer in a row.

[Ben_Cambs]

2010 was a very good summer here up until Mid-July. Before then, 25C was reached regulary with sunshine and very warm weather a plenty, especially in late June/ early July. 25C was achieved a few times too in August, but it was a very wet month, I couldn't do much outdoors as a result.

It is important to remember even 2007 and 2008 had some "hot snaps" which did occur a few times in those summers. 2009 was also a good summer here, but I feel the Media backlash on the Met Offices "failure" of a barbeque summer somewhat overshadowed this, and put down in their eyes 2009 as a poor summer, which isn't true for here at least. There was quite a lot of warm and dry weather here in 2009, and a good part of EA aswell, as TWS recalls, though I do realise some parts especially the NW/W/SW had a fairly wet and dull summer.

[CroatianWeather]

Hi .....again me with new NASA seasonal forecast : http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/products/climateforecasts/horizontal_1x1.cgi?var1=jan&var2=11&var3=Europe&var4=temp

...look at MJJ what they show.....just what I was talking about!! I dont want to be importunate and boring but this is tipical La nina summer with negative NAO index!!!Just like 2007 summer and maybe more cooler (because of Solar minimum!!! )....cool northern and Northwest Europe and they put WHITE color in the south and East of continent...this means undecided....but if we look logical we can conclude that it's gonna be warmer....

I repeat...maybe it's gonna be totally opposite than I am saying but two or three seasonal forecast show just potential for summer as I described in last few days more detailed..go back few pages and you will see....

Thats from me now,and I will put every Seasonal forecast so we will watch carefully what will summer 2011 be like !!!

[Bottesford]

Summer 2010 was great late May to early July with some good heat in May (30c+ on 23rd May - the hottest day since 2006) then consistently warm & decent all June (had some lovely bbq's and parties that month along with lots of outdoor pub time!). July started 'ok' then things just got slowly but surely worse & worse. So certainly better than 2007,2008,2009 but still nothing like the great 2006 (bar August it was great month after month of warm weather that year).

If I had to pick a time for 'good' weather I'd go for May-July and sacrifice August (when days shorten anyway) but ideally it'd be warm or hot & sunny non stop May to mid September with just the odd well placed thunderstorm. Little chance of that but you never know...

[Alex]

Croatian I get what you're saying but it's too early to judge, most said an above avg summer before 2007 started and some were saying record breaking obviously it didn't happen but we did have record breaking April! Things changed quickly that spring and things will change again. No year is same! Solar minimums may help as it may weaken the jet and push ridges up the southeast of england as like last July! Where I live is different to most of the uk!

[Isolated Frost]

Echoing Bottesford here, May to July is the best time for sun and heat IMO, but August and September would go amiss without warm sunshine...

In the past 10 years, my favourite Spring and Summer months would be:

March 2009 - CET 7.0C (Durham 6.8C)

April 2007 - CET 11.2C (Durham 10.2C)

May 2008 - CET 13.4C (Durham 11.4C)

June 2010 - CET 15.2C (Durham 14.2C)

July 2006 - CET 19.7C (Durham 18.4C)

August 2003 - CET 18.3C (Durham 17.0C)

[Ben_Cambs]

July 2006 was exceptional for Cambridge, the average temperature for Cambridge was 21.6C, not too far off the average maximum temperature! I think we would be very very lucky to see such a month again, maybe in the next 10 years or so we might see something similar. But I never expect the August 2003 exceptional extreme heatwave to occur in the UK again though. April 2007 of course was exceptional.

The Cambridge university stats show that pressure never fell below 1010mb in April 2007, and there was only 0.4mm of rainfall! Of course these conditions collapsed in the first days of May 2007, which gave 131mm of rainfall! The variation of weather over the past few years has been remarkable, as is the UK weather really!

[Milhouse]

the past 5 years have seen absolutely everything. Its incredible how much variety there has been. However the past 4 summers have been very ordinary indeed for the country as a whole. I suppose you could call 2007 extraordinary in terms of rainfall but in terms of heat and sunshine there hasnt been much to shout about recently. How i long for a repeat of classic summers where we would get widespread 30+ temperatures for a whole week building up to some superb thunderstorms.

My ideal summer month would have alternating hot and fresher weeks with the only rain coming at night or from showers during the breakdown of hot weather. On most days i would wake up to clear blue skies and even in the fresher weeks we would comfortably reach average (20-22c).

[Thundery wintry showers]

The Cambridge university stats show that pressure never fell below 1010mb in April 2007, and there was only 0.4mm of rainfall! Of course these conditions collapsed in the first days of May 2007, which gave 131mm of rainfall! The variation of weather over the past few years has been remarkable, as is the UK weather really!

I think those of us who like variety have been doing pretty well by UK standards during 2006-2010. The UK is capable of experiencing pretty much every weather type under the sun- that's one major factor in why its climate can be very interesting- but quite often the "mundane" weather types tend to be the most common. For instance 1988, 1998 and 2002 had mild winters and cloudy wet summers and not many notable weather events.

I wouldn't call the summers of 2007-09 "ordinary" across the country as a whole- averaged nationally they were exceptionally wet. August 2008 was widely the dullest since the record-breaking 1912, and July 2009 was an exceptionally thundery month in the Tyne and Wear area as well as being outstandingly wet with near average sunshine.

[summer blizzard]

Data shows that both La Nina and the QBO weakened during December, the lag effect possibly explaining the much more average La Nina January.

Analogues for the November-December period below.. (rolled forward a year)

2002

2001

1999

1989

1976

1975

1972

1968

1965

1963

1957

1955

1953

1975 jumps out as a dry summer and 1976 jumps out for being spectacular. Other than that, nothing really jumps out at me.

[ZONE 51]

Back in the classic times 50s/60s their was plenty of La-Nina periods during summers and many were hot and sunny and also snowy winters, the older generation tell me of cold snowy winters and long hot summers normals seasons.. and thunderstorms were more severe, as i remember in the 80s, but the 50s and 60s im told about had seasons of what is ment to be.

Edited January 9, 2011 by nimbilus

[Ben_Cambs]

I think those of us who like variety have been doing pretty well by UK standards during 2006-2010. The UK is capable of experiencing pretty much every weather type under the sun- that's one major factor in why its climate can be very interesting- but quite often the "mundane" weather types tend to be the most common. For instance 1988, 1998 and 2002 had mild winters and cloudy wet summers and not many notable weather events.

I wouldn't call the summers of 2007-09 "ordinary" across the country as a whole- averaged nationally they were exceptionally wet. August 2008 was widely the dullest since the record-breaking 1912, and July 2009 was an exceptionally thundery month in the Tyne and Wear area as well as being outstandingly wet with near average sunshine.

I probably shouldn't of stated the past 3 summers as "ordinary" but I do love the variation of the British weather. For example, you mention an exceptionally thundery month in Tyne and Wear in July 2009 but here I can only remember one decent thunderstorm from that month - There was probably more thundery days though. That's the sort of thing that really got me interested in the weather.

[Milhouse]

Back in the classic times 50s/60s their was plenty of La-Nina periods during summers and many were hot and sunny and also snowy winters, the older generation tell me of cold snowy winters and long hot summers normals seasons.. and thunderstorms were more severe, as i remember in the 80s, but the 50s and 60s im told about had seasons of what is ment to be.

I would sort of agree with the 50s but not for the 60s There was a lot of cold and snow but it was really a dark decade for summer. Remember last July when the CET came out to 17.1c and everyone was saying it was warm but nothing spectacular. Well the warmest month during the 60s was July 1969 with only 16.9c. The 50s only really saw 2 good summers, 1955 and 1959 although 1952 had a wonderful May and a decent summer but an awful September.

Nothing beats the 90s for consistently good summers. 9 months were warmer than July 1969 including 5 with a CET over 18c if you include 1989.

[Terminal Moraine]

Data shows that both La Nina and the QBO weakened during December, the lag effect possibly explaining the much more average La Nina January.

Analogues for the November-December period below.. (rolled forward a year)

2002

2001

1999

1989

1976

1975

1972

1968

1965

1963

1957

1955

1953

1975 jumps out as a dry summer and 1976 jumps out for being spectacular. Other than that, nothing really jumps out at me.

That list encompasses virtually the full range of conditions likely to be experienced in a British summer, from the cool and wet of 1965 through to the exceptional heat and drought of 1976.

The CFS continues to indicate a cool/very cool and dry/very dry summer, the result of persistent blocking in the northern Atlantic; it's been indicating this for some time with little change.

The problem with blocking in this position is that if it's slightly too far south it allows areas of low pressure around the northern edge which then deepen as the move south across Britain and eventually stagnate in the North Sea, leading to very cool and very wet, particularly for eastern and central areas.

Of course this is not a problem for me as it's the sort of weather I hope for every summer but for the majority on here it's the worst case scenario.

[conor123]

For here id happily take something along the lines of March 2006, April 2007, May 2008, June 2005, July 2006 and August 2004 this year.

A cold snowy March like 2006 because with the strengthening sun the snow showers can be really intense with sharp temperature drops in a small space of time and

the snow doesn't stay on the ground long enough to cause problems usually, also a good frontal snow event like 11/12th March 2006 although with the heaviest snow over here instead would be nice.

An April like that of 2007 to follow would be a lovely change to get the summery mood going early, day after day of gorgeous clear skies and sunshine with the days steadily getting longer, and warm temperatures to make it seem like summer has started early, perfect.

This being followed by a sunny May like that of 2008 continue the lovely early summer, and last year there was of course the perfect weekend of 22-23rd May which

was the perfect warm spell with temperatures in the mid twenties, cloudless and also low humidity.

Then as the summer officially started a bit of change with a more average varied month like June 2005 which had everything from warm temperatures to some pretty cracking thunderstorms, this followed by a scorching July like that of 2006 would be lovely with July back to day after day of hot sunshine, perfect outdoors weather.

August 2003 was very overrated around these parts and id happily take the first half of August 2004 instead because of its distinctly tropical feel with frequent thunderstorms, though a sunny weekend like in 2009 for V Festival would be needed of course :lol:

I think something along those lines would make for a great Spring and Summer for me.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Data shows that both La Nina and the QBO weakened during December, the lag effect possibly explaining the much more average La Nina January.

Analogues for the November-December period below.. (rolled forward a year)

2002

2001

1999

1989

1976

1975

1972

1968

1965

1963

1957

1955

1953

1975 jumps out as a dry summer and 1976 jumps out for being spectacular. Other than that, nothing really jumps out at me.

1989 and 1955 were warm dry sunny summers across much of the country. July 1955 remains the sunniest month on record over Wales while July 1989 was particularly outstanding over much of Scotland, and in some parts of the country (e.g. Tyne and Wear/Durham) the summer of 1989 was even sunnier than those of 1976 and 1995. But as TM notes above there's quite a mix of summers in there.

June 1957 was exceptionally sunny (though not exceptionally dry) but the rest of that summer was pretty indifferent.

[Supercell 89]

2005 was another fairly good summer, though it was more unsettled further north, particularly northern England and Scotland.

Both June and July had periods of cool wet weather alternating with very warm/hot weather with occasional t-storms. August was very warm and sunny we had alot of days where temps were in the mid 20s particular from mid month onwards, and a big t-storm to end the month. If i could pick and August to have weather wise this would be one of them, the other being 2003.

[summer blizzard]

For here id happily take something along the lines of March 2006, April 2007, May 2008, June 2005, July 2006 and August 2004 this year.

A cold snowy March like 2006 because with the strengthening sun the snow showers can be really intense with sharp temperature drops in a small space of time and

the snow doesn't stay on the ground long enough to cause problems usually, also a good frontal snow event like 11/12th March 2006 although with the heaviest snow over here instead would be nice.

An April like that of 2007 to follow would be a lovely change to get the summery mood going early, day after day of gorgeous clear skies and sunshine with the days steadily getting longer, and warm temperatures to make it seem like summer has started early, perfect.

This being followed by a sunny May like that of 2008 continue the lovely early summer, and last year there was of course the perfect weekend of 22-23rd May which

was the perfect warm spell with temperatures in the mid twenties, cloudless and also low humidity.

Then as the summer officially started a bit of change with a more average varied month like June 2005 which had everything from warm temperatures to some pretty cracking thunderstorms, this followed by a scorching July like that of 2006 would be lovely with July back to day after day of hot sunshine, perfect outdoors weather.

August 2003 was very overrated around these parts and id happily take the first half of August 2004 instead because of its distinctly tropical feel with frequent thunderstorms, though a sunny weekend like in 2009 for V Festival would be needed of course :lol:

I think something along those lines would make for a great Spring and Summer for me.

I agree with the majority of those months, aside from the fact that i would prefer constant sunshine and dry weather as opposed to thunderstorms. With that in mind, i would pick June 2006 over June 2005, and August 1995 over August 2004.

Because the range is so big, i will get the QBO anologues to see if any years match both.

[summer blizzard]

QBO anologues for the November-December period rolled forward one year..

2007

2005

1998

1991

1988

1986

1981

1979

1976

1974

1970

1964

1962

1960

1958

1956

MEI + QBO

1976

The only anologue which matches both the MEI and QBO data is 1975 which lead to the summer of 1976, let us hope that this anologue sticks.

[Thundery wintry showers]

For me, 1995 would take a clean sweep of all three spring months (April 2007 & May 2001 would run the April & May very close, but lose out due to comparitive lack of variety). For the summer months, the June award would be a toss-up between 1996 and 2003 (June 2009 was a remarkable month where I was, Exeter at the time, but it was on quite a localised basis). The July award would go to 2006, just beating 1995, and the August award would go to 1996, again just beating 1995 due to variety.

This is regarding years from 1993 onwards as I didn't observe the weather closely prior to 1993. I have a feeling that April 1990 and May 1992 would have been close contenders if my observations had gone back much further.

Looking at the QBO analogues the cool cloudy wet summers seem to outnumber the warm sunny dry ones, although I think at this range it is likely to change with time.

[kold weather]

I suspect a summer very similar to the last winter with a mixture of the odd good heatwave but the further north you get the poorer the summer is in general.

Simply put though its still too early to call obviously!