Summer 2011

[Stormyking]

July and August in my opinion will most likely bring the hotter conditons with thunderstorms at times, I wouldn't mind some rain first before a proper heatwave.

Don't worry yet folks summer isn't over by a mile off and has only just stared

[Eugene]

04/06/2011 - 10/06/2011*

High pressure should be ridging from the southwest and extending across bulk of the UK, a mainly westerly flow established across northern Britain, some indications of lower pressure developing to the southeast over the near continent.

There's the prospect of some settled and pleasant weather through most areas of the UK beneath a ridge of high pressure stretched across central Britain, it'll be feeling warm in the sunshine but perhaps tempered by a developing and potentially brisk easterly breeze across southern Britain. It'll be mainly dry across the bulk of England and Wales, although there is the threat of scattered showers later in the far south perhaps.

The northern half of the UK should also see some good sunny spells and be mainly dry, particularly sheltered eastern areas, where it'll also fell pleasantly warm. North-western and more exposed western areas may see more cloud and some patchy rain from time to time, and a fresher west to south-westerly breeze.

This is the first part of weatheronlines summer forecast released just last saturday, the first part looks wrong already so it just shows you not to believe long range forecasting at all, the rest of the forecast will be probably wrong now too.

Edited June 3, 2011 by Eugene

[Alex95]

i read that also that the 1st 9 days of june would be nice and pleasant but now i think the 1st 4 days of june only and the other 26 will be freezing cold. i think this summer is going to be worse than 2007 and its going to be close to artic temperatures. when i saw the 10day forecast earlier i felt absolutely disgusted. we have had no good summer whatsoever in almost 10years and this one looks even worse predicting than ever. when will this onions weather ever end? i have to go to gran canaria every year now just to see some nice healthy sunny weather.

temperatures arent even going to hit average the next 14days after the weekend. welcome to the ice age!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! the ice age is actually probably more pleasant than our summers!

No good summers? 2003 and 2006 were excellent! 2005 wan't bad either. The last 4 haven't been great, so hopefully this year will break the trend. 1995 only got going properly in late June, one of the best Summers on record.

Edited June 3, 2011 by alza

[summer blizzard]

QBO values dropped during May, so a good chance of -QBO values developing during August.

2009

1991

1988

1986

1983

1981

1978

1967

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Some good winter anologues there, but no summer ones jump out.

[Thundery wintry showers]

1983 is quite a favourable anologue for those hoping for a more "continental" type of summer into July/August, as July 1983 was the second hottest July on record and had a high frequency of thunder, while August 1983 was dry, sunny and warm almost nationwide. On the other side of the coin, July 1988 and August 1986 were washouts for most parts of the country.

[summer blizzard]

1967 was the only anologue matching the Aprl-May period for both the QBO and MEI.

1967 had a below average July and August, July was slightly above.

[ZONE 51]

i can understand how those in the North feel about lack of summer over the

years, but down here in the SE its been fine this summer with some nice days and periods inbetween the convection! and last year was hot

and dry, infact the Se has done quite well over the years. it really is the

Norths turn and maybe this year it is..but it needs to be good in the South to

as the heat usually passes over us first? the North can get sunny clear blue skies

without us of course but i mean imported heat. B)

Edited June 17, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[summer blizzard]

1967 was the only anologue matching the Aprl-May period for both the QBO and MEI.

1967 had a below average July and August, July was slightly above.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/solar.data

1967 was also quite close in terms of the solar flux levels.

This does not bode well.

[EaasmanG]

It is rather foolish to expect a summer here in the Derbyshire Peak District, unless you consider anything over 15°C summer of course. Moreso than that, it is the lack of sun and numerous drizzly days that make it distinctly un-summery round these parts.

[Costa Del Fal]

I rather disagree Sun Worshipping Reverend. June this year was pretty Average in my books. It could have been a bit warmer at times but there were decent sunny spells in which it felt very pleasant anyway interspersed with some rain and showers. Summer 2010 was not bad in my opinion. May and June were excellent. It was fairly cloudy July and August admittedly but it wasnt a washout or cold. I think your expectations are far too high. You will never get a 2003/2006 every year in this country.

Not sure how are weather here would be more Northern either? We certainly havent had the washout it has been in the North West at all at times and have enjoyed good sunny and warm temperatures at times and the rest of the South has been no different. The SE has had slightly higher temperatures at times and thats pretty much it compared to here.

After the likes of 2007-2009, im quite happy with what we have now. Its respectable enough. Not amazing but this is Britain and we cannot raise expectations too high in this country as its such a variable climate here.

Edited July 4, 2011 by Blizzards

[johnholmes]

nice to get a balanced view rather than the one before you with its somewhat jaundiced view