Summer 2011

[Eugene]

Wow its only Jan 5th and a spring/summer thread has already been opened, i'll try opening an Autumn/Winter one in early July and see if if its closed or not.

Its winter and its been great so far, really could do without such depressing threads, Springs are good with still the potential for clear arctic airstreams with lots of sunshine but by summer the cold airmasses go to be replaced by overcast atlantic ones, YUCK like the past 4 summers here.

[butler_son]

Wow its only Jan 5th and a spring/summer thread has already been opened, i'll try opening an Autumn/Winter one in early July and see if if its closed or not.

Its winter and its been great so far, really could do without such depressing threads, Springs are good with still the potential for clear arctic airstreams with lots of sunshine but by summer the cold airmasses go to be replaced by overcast atlantic ones, YUCK like the past 4 summers here.

How on Earth is this a depressing thread? If anything it's the complete opposite, with people declaring their aspirations (in a pretty positive fashion) for the spring and summer in a pretty positive manner. If you want depressing, you could have done no worse than have looked out of an East Dorset window today, dark as night and damp.

Not everyone has to love Arctic air all year round like you do - take a step back and learn to respect other people's preferences please, like many on here do to yours.

And before you suddenly declare me a mild ramper, I happen to like cold weather, but I also appreciate mild weather (though both are equally boring in large quantities).

[Alex95]

Wow its only Jan 5th and a spring/summer thread has already been opened, i'll try opening an Autumn/Winter one in early July and see if if its closed or not.

Its winter and its been great so far, really could do without such depressing threads, Springs are good with still the potential for clear arctic airstreams with lots of sunshine but by summer the cold airmasses go to be replaced by overcast atlantic ones, YUCK like the past 4 summers here.

I get so frustrated by these comments. as people aren't obliged to hate 'nice' weather. I love the warmth in Summer, and I often find January and February quite depressing. They're not if it is cold and snowy though. I'm certainly not wishing away winter, but I think June-July is the nicest time of year, if not as exciting weatherwise as winter can be. Give me a complete mixture of weather and I'll be happy; a fresh 10cm fall is much better than a 2 week old 40cm snow cover, so you can get too much of a good thing. The November spell was spectacular for the first 7 days, but just good for the next 7 as the biggest fresh fall was 4cm.

[Bottesford]

Wow its only Jan 5th and a spring/summer thread has already been opened, i'll try opening an Autumn/Winter one in early July and see if if its closed or not.

Actually you'll find we had several long range winter threads from late June onwards last year which were very popular. To me it seemed like madness - longing for this dark, cold and miserable time of year when it was lovely, warm & sunny outside. It seemed like longing for a manic Monday morning whilst enjoying your Saturday morning lie in - but still we're all different and we must respect that!

You also have to remember that outside of weather forums/enthusiasts the vast majority of people prefer sunny, warm weather - the cold bias we find here is not reflected in the real world, at least in my experience!

[Rollo]

I get so frustrated by these comments. as people aren't obliged to hate 'nice' weather. I love the warmth in Summer, and I often find January and February quite depressing. They're not if it is cold and snowy though. I'm certainly not wishing away winter, but I think June-July is the nicest time of year, if not as exciting weatherwise as winter can be. Give me a complete mixture of weather and I'll be happy; a fresh 10cm fall is much better than a 2 week old 40cm snow cover, so you can get too much of a good thing. The November spell was spectacular for the first 7 days, but just good for the next 7 as the biggest fresh fall was 4cm.

I could not agree with you more,summer is the best season of the year if we get a fair crack of the whip with some good warm spells,I also like winter snow and bright frosty days whilst I detest any strong windy zonal flows be they in winter or summer.

[anvilhead]

I like both winter and summer - I can enjoy one while looking forwards to the other - in 2010 I was swimming in the lakes round here at night in june, and a few weeks ago walking round the outskirts of my village in -12 on a sparkling bright moonlit night ..

My gut feel is that we'll have a good dry and warm spring, and an average summer with another washout august .. all depends how much this anamolous northwesterly theory is correct though - since 2007 summers have been ropey at best, and the synoptics for storms have been very poor. Fingers crossed hey

Sam

[summer blizzard]

Thanks summer blizzard good post! What was the indications this time last year in regards to the summer last year?

Last year was a case of close but no cigar in terms of potential and was effectively ruined by the rapidly strengthening La Nina.

If you look at the data the +QBO phase began in June, however La Nina had developed by May despite El Nino peaking in February. Thus, we got a decent April-June period, but summer went down the pan afterward.

What happens if we get a neural la Nina or el niño develop with a -qbo summer blizzard or anyone? Also without sounding stupid what does qbo mean? Cheers

QBO stands for Quasi-Bentenial-Occilation, basically which way the trade winds blow in the tropics.

TWS, the difference between the 2005 and 2007 anologues is that the MEI values were close to weak El Nino in 2005, and weak La Nina in 2007, though both had very similar QBO values.

Alex, it depends which way it is trending. Towards La Nina is bad with a -QBO in my opinion. Towards El Nino is less bad, warmer but wet.

[AderynCoch]

You also have to remember that outside of weather forums/enthusiasts the vast majority of people prefer sunny, warm weather - the cold bias we find here is not reflected in the real world, at least in my experience!

Maybe not the cold aspect, but I would say there is definitely a bias towards snow amongst the general populace (not as much as on here, but still).

[ZONE 51]

This thread is a great idea yet so early, and thats even better! because long range forecasting seasons is extremely difficult and taking a look at factors now is the thing to do. I just hope that the weather pattern sets up perfect for the UK to have warm sunny and at times wet weather,that would be great for farming. I would want thunderstorms to. (;

[Milhouse]

The chances of the 2nd half of last summer to follow on from the 1st were really scuppered by the Russian Heatwave. Up until then the Azores High was showing real promise of dominating for long periods throughout the summer. From mid July it never properly made it back to our shores

[CroatianWeather]

Just if I can notice something...

Summers in UK are almost always opposite than summers here in Croatia!

Let's take few examples....

2002 we had warm but really wet and cloudy summer..you had warm and settled sunny summer

2007 we had really hot and drier summer and you had washout and cool weather...

2009 again we had warm,settled with HP dominating whole summer..you had again lot of rain also some floods in Ireland and Scotland...

I just took few examples in winters and made conclusion that weather is very often totally opposite in Croatia(Balkans,SouthEast Europe) than up in the UK....

And for me that is logically....for example,HP over UK low pressure comes down from Scandinavia here in Balkans...

HP here means (very often) active atlantic and LP over UK ,and rainy , cool weather for you...

This is something I noticed many years ago but today I took few minutes and prove it!!!

Edited January 6, 2011 by CroatianWeather

[MP-R]

Just if I can notice something...

Summers in UK are almost always opposite than summers here in Croatia!

2002 we had warm but really wet and cloudy summer..you had warm and settled sunny summer

This one is the only exception. I think most of Europe must have had quite a poor summer in 2002 as it was pretty poor in the UK too. The return of the westerlies came in May and lasted pretty much the whole summer bar a short heatwave in mid-August. July, in particular, was wet.

[CroatianWeather]

OMG....Sorry but someone wrote (I was reading archive) that in 2002 you had great June nad August....but never mind.......You can also look at the summer of 90's and you will see that opposite I was talking about....

[Alex]

Between 98-02 we had 5 poorish summers in a row am I right here? 03-06 we had good summers, these things seem to come in cycles? Correct me if I'm wrong

[CroatianWeather]

Alex I dont know about cycles but you helped me on my theory...between 98-02 in Croatia every summer was really hot and dry....03 summer was hot in whole Europe.....than 04-05-06 summers were not pretty good here in Balkans but as you say you had pretty good summers!!Thanks Alex,that's what I was talking about...OPPOSITES!!!

[BoilingisBetter]

Of course it's not too early to be talking about summer, what clown came up with that idea?

Anyway, I'm sure anyone with half a brain cell can admit that it's due time we had another hot blast of the longevity and nature of 1976. Many consecutive days of 30°C even here in Manchester, how wonderful it was!!!! Everybody enjoyed it. Such sunshine, never too humid, no rain and cloud to spoil the party. Didn't need to jet off abroad to get any sunshine and heat that year! BBQ's out every day for two weeks! I can't think of a single person who really didn't enjoy it.

People who have a problem with hot sunny weather have a problem with their brain, or lack thereof! Nature is intrinsically designed to be attracted to sunshine and warmth unless you're a polar bear :lol:

Let's hope that high pressure blocking finds its way to the south east of the UK this time round

[AderynCoch]

The chances of the 2nd half of last summer to follow on from the 1st were really scuppered by the Russian Heatwave. Up until then the Azores High was showing real promise of dominating for long periods throughout the summer. From mid July it never properly made it back to our shores

Yes, the jet stream got stuck in a rut and weather patterns became locked as a result. At least you were on the right side of the fence though: some of us didn't even make it to the end of June before the washout summer arrived with a vengeance. Three of the last four Julys here have been absolutely terrible, and the other (2008) was poor overall (though salvaged somewhat by a fine last week). I'm not sure I could bear five poor Julys in a row.

People who have a problem with hot sunny weather have a problem with their brain, or lack thereof! Nature is intrinsically designed to be attracted to sunshine and warmth unless you're a polar bear :lol:

I like hot sunny weather, but it's just a subjective personal preference like any other. Why do you think polar bears even exist? Nature has adapted to where sunshine and warmth are at a premium.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Maybe not the cold aspect, but I would say there is definitely a bias towards snow amongst the general populace (not as much as on here, but still).

I find that as well- the general enthusiasm for cold on this forum appears to be very much a minority interest, but the enthusiasm for snow is not. I find that snow polarises opinion across the general population, and many people have a love-hate relationship with it depending on what they're doing. I find that general opinion on it tends to be more positive than negative when it first arrives but we see more and more people get fed up with it as it persists- particularly when it turns icy (even I sometimes find myself hoping for a temporary thaw in those situations).

Perhaps some of the enthusiasm for cold on N-W might not be quite what it seems but may stem from the principle "establish the cold and then the snow may follow".

People who have a problem with hot sunny weather have a problem with their brain, or lack thereof! Nature is intrinsically designed to be attracted to sunshine and warmth unless you're a polar bear :lol:

I've never liked those "if you like/don't like X something's wrong with you" inferences. There are a minority of people who suffer from "reverse SAD", Laserguy for example, and the condition is known to be more common in countries which traditionally see a lot of hot sunshine.

I enjoy hot sunny weather but I also like variety, and a prolonged dry sunny spell often has me scanning the charts for the possibility of convective events somewhere down the line. This is why I rated July 2006 over August 1995- the hot sunshine was interspersed with thundery outbreaks, whereas in August 1995 it was almost wall to wall dry sunny weather until the 23rd. However, it's not really the August 1995 type settled weather that I tend to find tedious after a while- more the mundane stuff we get in the westerly flow on the northern flank of an Azores ridge with sunshine not significantly exceeding the average and the odd bit of drizzle.

[BoilingisBetter]

I've never liked those "if you like/don't like X something's wrong with you" inferences. There are a minority of people who suffer from "reverse SAD", Laserguy for example, and the condition is known to be more common in countries which traditionally see a lot of hot sunshine.

I enjoy hot sunny weather but I also like variety, and a prolonged dry sunny spell often has me scanning the charts for the possibility of convective events somewhere down the line. This is why I rated July 2006 over August 1995- the hot sunshine was interspersed with thundery outbreaks, whereas in August 1995 it was almost wall to wall dry sunny weather until the 23rd. However, it's not really the August 1995 type settled weather that I tend to find tedious after a while- more the mundane stuff we get in the westerly flow on the northern flank of an Azores ridge with sunshine not significantly exceeding the average and the odd bit of drizzle.

Laserguy has reverse SAD???? For hell's sake man, he's in the right country all ready!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:

Even if the midlands/south gets a heatwave he could go to NW Scotland and be right in his element!!

[Weather-history]

Between 98-02 we had 5 poorish summers in a row am I right here? 03-06 we had good summers, these things seem to come in cycles? Correct me if I'm wrong

I don't remember 2004 being a good summer. The second half of June and the bulk of July was indifferent and the August was a washout.

[CroatianWeather]

That I was talking about few days ago.....summer 2011...........my favourite seasonal forecast ECPC(also IRI is very good) says just what I see......ridge of HP in SE Europe and cooler northern and probably central and west Europe.......similar to summer 2007!!!

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu...SM_seasons.html

(click on temp at 2m(January update) and see chart of MJJ(MAY-JUNE-JULY)

But it's still January...there is a lot of time for changes,so this is just my first personal thoughts....we have to watch carefully La nina,QBO and NAO in next months...we will know more in the April or May.....

Edited January 6, 2011 by CroatianWeather

[Ben_Cambs]

Personally I think this Spring will be similar to last Spring, HP dominated with risk of frosts still widespread. As for the Summer, I think it will be pretty much average, with maybe slightly above average rainfall, and probably one spell of hot and dry weather, though I don't know when. Not much reasoning behind this, just a hunch.

[Alex]

I seem to remember 04 not being that bad in Essex, may be wrong? 07 was weird because we had a great spring and record April.

[Thundery wintry showers]

In my Cleadon weather records (extending from 1993-2010) 2004 was the wettest summer in that period with 267mm of rain, 60% above normal. August 2004, with 143mm, was also the wettest summer month of the period. It was a true washout month here with frequent slow moving areas of rain, and a lot of low cloud from the North Sea in the first half, and although it was warm, this was entirely due to high overnight minima. However, some other parts of the country had a very different month, with an emphasis on heavy thundery downpours with sunshine in between, and thunder on 7-9 days, and certain individual locations such as Cambridge missed most of the downpours.

June 2004 had a north-south split in the first half, most of England and Wales (except Cumbria and north Lancashire) was warm, dry and sunny, but most of Scotland was dull and wet. After a northerly outbreak on the 18th-21st with sun, showers and scattered thunderstorms, westerlies set in on the 22nd/23rd and saw out most of July which ended up as a cool, cloudy wet month for most, albeit not exceptionally so.

[damianslaw]

Way to early to beging to predict the summer, but the long term pattern since 2007 has been for a very southerly tracking jet which I can't see changing anytime soon which doesn't bode well for a dry sunny hot summer.

As for Spring, signs of northern blocking holding firm through February and if the case it will not be quickly blasted away in March, we could easily end up with a month similiar to last year which saw sustained cold in the first half.

We need a major pattern change to occur if we are to see a warm Spring.