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CroatianWeather

Summer 2011

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I really think it is time to start this topic....

there are 60 days of winter and then spring should come......let's see what my favourite model shows for March-April-May in Europe! There is big chance of warm spring in big parts of Europe....but I wouldn't be so sure for warmer spring....this winter could be pretty harsh in almost whole Europe, so I presonally think spring is maybe gonna be average in temperatures in West and Central Europe and little cooler in Eastern parts of continent!:whistling:

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Not seen that chart, though it'll probably change as much as the famed CFS charts.

Personally I'd love a warm, sunny spring, with Southerlies and South-Easterly, with the odd showery Northerly.

I'm going for a mild March and April (0.5C and 1.5C above respectively), and another cooler May (1.0C below), setting up a cool start to Summer, and a warm end to it.

9.1C (+0.5C) is my Spring CET prediction.

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I think my preferences for early spring depend on how the rest of winte pan out. If February doesn't deliver any snow, I'd like the first half of March to be cold with snow opportunities then become generally wet and unsettled with a period of Atlantic weather that has not been apparent for a while. Then a mild/warm April with a mix of April showers and spring sunshine, then a warmer version of that in May with the first summer thunderstorms occurring.

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We are going to Languedoc for March, so some nice spring weather, low to middle 20's would suit me fine. :whistling:

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My preference is for bitter cold up to the end of February and a rapid turnabout to pleasant warm dry weather as soon as March begins,in reality I fear at least the first week will be cold with snow about.

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I can see it being quite a topsy-turvy Spring with alternating warm and cool spells like 1995. I dont see a rapid switcharound to warm southwesterlies so i do expect cooler northerlies from time to time. However i expect high pressure to dominate for long periods so if it can be in the right place we should get some lengthy dry and warm spells.

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I am in a small minority on here but I like to have a variable spring, featuring warm dry sunny spells, warm showery spells and cold arctic outbreaks with sunshine and wintry showers- and particularly those switch-arounds where we go from summer-like sunshine one week to snow showers the next (or vice versa).

Spring 1995 in the Tyne and Wear area is going to take some beating for that sort of combination, but I don't expect Spring 2011 to be quite as topsy-turvy as that, though at the same time I don't expect the consistent warmth of Spring 2009 to be repeated. I envisage something slightly warmer than average but with a few brief chill reminders of winter.

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We are going to Languedoc for March, so some nice spring weather, low to middle 20's would suit me fine. :whistling:

Thats asking a lot for March :o but given high pressure and a light southerly wind it could almost feel like that.

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Personally, i think that many people will be dissapointed this spring, especially after one of the sunniest springs on record last year.

What we have to work with this spring, is a La Nina and +QBO, so essentially the same conditions as this winter. Based on these factors, my forecast is below...

March and April - both dry months, though showery with high pressure west of the UK, thus CET about 1C below average both months.

May - Because of the weakening La Nina and +QBO, May is likely to provide the chance for the nicest month in terms of a warm and dry combination. CET 1C above.

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MARCH - The ecoes of a cold and very snowy february..reminders that winter won't be over just yet! but a sign of the atlantic playing battle ground, lows pushing up from the southwest againt a cold air pool. late month high pressure bringing sunshine and wintery showers.

APRIL - a warming sun yet a cool air, april hail has begun..its time to move on with winter done. heating ground warms and storm clouds warn, sunshine and showers with dry periods this month.

MAY - very warm moving up from the south, thundery rain storms, a wet month hot month, with a hot dry summer.

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As we are now in 2011 and I'm a massive heat lover! I wondered what the long term patterns and thoughts are going into spring and summer. last year was a summer of two halves with a good June and July but a poor August. Will the pattern be similar or can we expect better? Discuss here. I'd be interested to know any thoughts of long term forecasts even though it is a long way off. Cheers.

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Recent CFS charts have shown a cold, dry summer (somewhat of a rarity), with many Northerlies due to Greenland Highs.

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Hello. Whereabouts are you from? July was pretty naff here. August was actually sunnier although wetter.

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Summer is even harder to predict than winter in my opinion, but if this current trend for northern blocking continues it will be quite cool and wet again. These charts change quite a lot, but they generally showed the pressure synoptics which led to the severe cold in December as early as August/September. March could well resemble a winter month from a winter between 1992 and 2008, mild and wet.

If I was betting on it I would go for a mild and wet March, and a cool, dry May, with frequent dry NE'lies. I've got no idea about the summer really.

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Chelmsford in Essex, It was very good here hardly any rain and Many days over 25c! Writtle was quite often the hotspot last summer and this is 5miles to the west of the town.

North sea: cool and dry would mean 2/3c below and dry? So we looking at 20c with Manu dry sunny days? I must admit I like heat so this prob would suit me.

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Chelmsford in Essex, It was very good here hardly any rain and Many days over 25c! Writtle was quite often the hotspot last summer and this is 5miles to the west of the town.

North sea: cool and dry would mean 2/3c below and dry? So we looking at 20c with Manu dry sunny days? I must admit I like heat so this prob would suit me.

Hi there Alex and welcome :)

Could you please pop your location into your profile which will be in your edit profile settings.

Thanks :good:

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Last year we had a cool may and things broke down mid June with southwesterlies, I remember the temp jumped by 10c in 3 days to 26c and it was the start of a month long warm/hot spell in the southeast. Suppose we could be in line for similar. I was always taught that northerlies are extremely rare in the summer?

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Last year we had a cool may and things broke down mid June with southwesterlies, I remember the temp jumped by 10c in 3 days to 26c and it was the start of a month long warm/hot spell in the southeast. Suppose we could be in line for similar. I was always taught that northerlies are extremely rare in the summer?

They kinda are, but they usually deliver as much sunshine as Southerlies/Southwesterlies, if not more, so it's not all bad.

My favourite summer would be a Southerly Summer, with an HP system all over W Europe, and sunshine throughout, 25C by day, 15C by night, with some cool, showery Northerlies to freshen things up at times...

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They kinda are, but they usually deliver as much sunshine as Southerlies/Southwesterlies, if not more, so it's not all bad.

My favourite summer would be a Southerly Summer, with an HP system all over W Europe, and sunshine throughout, 25C by day, 15C by night, with some cool, showery Northerlies to freshen things up at times...

Ditto - can't beat a nice humid (but not *too* humid) summer day maxing around 25c and temps holding up in the evening only dropping below 20c after 9pm down to maybe 15-17c at the lowest.

I know a lot of people don't like humidity as it can get stuffy during the hotter part of the day. Problem of low humidity is it's only any good for sitting out in during the middle part of the day which limits it to weekends as it will generally cool rapidly 6pm onwards. I like it when I can sit out of an evening after work enjoying a cool beer in the yard without getting cold. Seems like a distant dream at the moment with my yard only being used to store the bins and as a thoroughfare from the gate to the front door.

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Baring a record event, spring will feature a weakening La Nina and weakening +QBO combination. This will pretty much ensure that the first half of spring is cool and dry, though there is hope for a decent May if La Nina collapses to weak or even neutral values.

In regards to summer, we would ideally want an El Nino to begin developing and for the +QBO to hang on as long as possible, though it is more likely that we will see a -QBO develop and La Nina record weak values at best, one of the worst combinations we could get (Two recent anologues being 2005 and 2007).

In conclusion, we need to see La Nina go and quickly.

EDIT: A quick look at the data shows that the summers of 1976, 1995, 2003 and 2006 all recorded MEI values between -0.1 and 0.7. Of those anologues, only 1976 came off the back of a similar strength La Nina. Statistically then, we have a 1 in 4 chance that La Nina could get in the required range for a stella summer.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/table.html

Looking at the QBO data, we see a more varied picture with 1995 and 2006 recording +QBO values and 2003 recording -QBO values, 1976 however was at a crossover stage, much closer to this year. Looking through the data since 1960 the +QBO phase has lasted between 8 and 17 months, because we turned positive in August, this means that the QBO will change between March and December, making July/August the most likely timeframe for a change in QBO conditions.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Based on this data, as long as La Nina is weak at best, we may see a warm and dry June, however i am not holding out hope for the rest of summer.

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Ditto - can't beat a nice humid (but not *too* humid) summer day maxing around 25c and temps holding up in the evening only dropping below 20c after 9pm down to maybe 15-17c at the lowest.

I know a lot of people don't like humidity as it can get stuffy during the hotter part of the day. Problem of low humidity is it's only any good for sitting out in during the middle part of the day which limits it to weekends as it will generally cool rapidly 6pm onwards. I like it when I can sit out of an evening after work enjoying a cool beer in the yard without getting cold. Seems like a distant dream at the moment with my yard only being used to store the bins and as a thoroughfare from the gate to the front door.

Yes, I love them nights, just out in your garden, chilling with the low sun and some nice refreshments, 18C or so, 10C DP.

Nice, fresh Southerly and everything is easy-going.

Only things I despise in Summer are; Westerlies that bring rain and high humidity (useless!), and Easterlies (DAMN YOU LOW CLOUD!), I love them Northerlies that are fresh and sunny with some sudden showers, and Southerlies that are Hot and Dry, with some of that lovely Sahara dust at times.

Heaven.

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Baring a record event, spring will feature a weakening La Nina and weakening +QBO combination. This will pretty much ensure that the first half of spring is cool and dry, though there is hope for a decent May if La Nina collapses to weak or even neutral values.

In regards to summer, we would ideally want an El Nino to begin developing and for the +QBO to hang on as long as possible, though it is more likely that we will see a -QBO develop and La Nina record weak values at best, one of the worst combinations we could get (Two recent anologues being 2005 and 2007).

In conclusion, we need to see La Nina go and quickly.

I'm not afraid to say it, a cool and wet summer would do me. Not a huge fan of heat but I enjoy the convective element to summer so fingers crossed for some decent storms this year.

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I'm not afraid to say it, a cool and wet summer would do me. Not a huge fan of heat but I enjoy the convective element to summer so fingers crossed for some decent storms this year.

For the cool and wet combination, you essentially want a moderate to strong La Nina combined with a -QBO, very possible this year.

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I'm not afraid to say it, a cool and wet summer would do me. Not a huge fan of heat but I enjoy the convective element to summer so fingers crossed for some decent storms this year.

Ditto.

Can't actually remember ever having a storm last year around these parts.

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