The Midlands - Cold Spell Discussion Part 20

[andy_leics22]

A pretty grotty day here as well. It's been around 5-6 °C since the early hours, with no sun, but plenty of murk and light rain. Feels cold, but isn't actually cold; the worst type of winter weather. A nice northerly with bright, cold days seems very attractive just now... shame we're not getting one

Edit: some interest regarding Friday with this afternoon's output. The updated MetO regional forecasts now suggest wintriness on Friday morning -- and the NAE +48 follows suit, with snow shown over most of Wales and the Midlands for the 06-12h segment:

NAE +48 (Fri morning)

The NAE

Remember how wrong that model was for that possible snow event just after Christmas? It was horribly wrong even at T24, it showed snow for the whole of the Midlands, Wales, Yorkshire and snow as far South as North London. What actually happened was... No snow fell anywhere in England or Wales, some sleet fell for a time in higher parts I think but 95% of places in England and Wales had rain all the way from start to finish

[A.J]

The NAE

Remember how wrong that model was for that possible snow event just after Christmas? It was horribly wrong even at T24, it showed snow for the whole of the Midlands, Wales, Yorkshire and snow as far South as North London. What actually happened was... No snow fell anywhere in England or Wales, some sleet fell for a time in higher parts I think but 95% of places in England and Wales had rain all the way from start to finish

It's had a hard time handling snow events, thats for sure, but to be honest, I've found all of the hi-res models have had problems at T18-T12, after which they tend to sort themselves out...GFS has been impressive this winter picking up trends and for close range forecasting (last winter, it had several 'drunken' episodes IMO) and currently, as we're coming into a close range time frame, the GFS is definitely trending to a more snowy scenario on Friday, albeit transitional snow

[Strider]

The NAE is good with placement, but certainly not with type.

GFS shows rain with sleet on the northern edge (for us), this seems a likely outcome.

[Nick L]

I cannot trust the BBC and Met Office with these types of events anymore. Not expecting anything and even if we do get anything decent it will just be washed away soon after anyway.

[Cheese Rice]

I cannot trust the BBC and Met Office with these types of events anymore. Not expecting anything and even if we do get anything decent it will just be washed away soon after anyway.

If you are refereeing to the dodgy snow but turned out to be rain forecast it was based solely on the NAE.

Although I did criticize the Meto for relying solely on the NAE it was just the model that over-egged the 850's, otherwise I would trust the Meto/BBC, or should I say the NAE as there forecasts are always identical to the NAE's output.

[kev238]

I think this event looks far less marginal than the other event that caused some much angst on here it would seem! Regardless, it will all get washed away. Also the Met Office warning speaks of a few cms of snowfall especially on Northern hills!

which suggests they dont expect disruptive snowfall in lowland Southern Britain!

oh and it makes me laugh when people say they dont trust the NAE or that it is useless when the Met Office use it. They clearly do have data that suggests it is quite useful and trustworthy; the problem is the BBC graphics are too specific and so people like us chase around the specifics of where snow/ rain are going to fall. It would be far better to have the less specific snowfall/ rainfall symbols like in the old days rather than the graphics now which suggest pin point accuracy!

Edited January 5, 2011 by kev238

[Cheese Rice]

I think this event looks far less marginal than the other event that caused some much angst on here it would seem! Regardless, it will all get washed away. Also the Met Office warning speaks of a few cms of snowfall especially on Northern hills!

which suggests they dont expect disruptive snowfall in lowland Southern Britain!

The warning has been the same for a while now, mostly due to the uncertainty of the northern most extent of the low.

Also going by your logic the Meto don't expect disruptive snowfall in Scotland and N.England either as the warning is the same.

The potential is there for the midlands and the GFS won't show it, the NMM and NAE will. Tonight's NAE output will be one of many crucial runs that we will need to watch for consistency.

Edited January 5, 2011 by cheeserice

[A.J]

The warning has been the same for a while now, mostly due to the uncertainty of the northern most extent of the low.

Also going by your logic the Meto don't expect disruptive snowfall in Scotland and N.England either as the warning is the same.

The potential is there for the midlands and the GFS won't show it, the NMM and NAE will. Tonight's NAE output will be one of many crucial runs that we will need to watch for consistency.

Au contraire

GFS does show potential, and has been trending towards it the past few runs

latest GFS charts...

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well nothing wrong with the 12z NAE

[Bolton67]

Chris, as we know the NAE only runs to T+48.

That chart you posted is @ T+48. if the NAE could run to T+54. most of that snow would be now showing Rain.

Not expecting anything much on Friday.

Edit.

Look east forecast, not a mention for snow on Friday.

Edited January 5, 2011 by Bolton_Madman

[Costa Del Fal]

After the last event im not expecting much if anything at all. Dont want it anyway right now! Thankfully it should melt. Im not usually like this but if it wants to bugger up my exams it can do so somewhere else.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Chris, as we know the NAE only runs to T+48.

That chart you posted is @ T+48. if the NAE could run to T+54. most of that snow would be now showing Rain.

Not expecting anything much on Friday.

Yes I know it is going to rain , Leading edge Snow is very likely though from around Somerset NEward . Northampton is probably the place in the Midlands that will see the rain the earliest but further North the difference between this time and last time is the 850's last time they were above 0 when the rain came in . This time there -5 below in the East Midlands and it will take time to mix this out . 2-3 hours of Snow for the Midlands at least , Infact Into Northern England and it may well stay as Snow into Saturday as they have 850's near -10 ahead of the front.

Only good thing though will be watching Snow fall for a few hours sod all chance of keeping it.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Fridays snow looks very light and patchy and sleety, maybe a few 5 minute light snow flurries, but got to agree with Ian Brown, the Atlantic rolls in on Saturday 8th, and will be mild and zonal for the rest of the month, just hope its reasonably dry,

never know feb may offer a bit more winter, but with high sun and longish days any snow wont last long, even if it stays blocked from Atlantic. I had snow on 31st Jan last year, it remained cold, but my snow thawed everywhere due to time of year not the Atlantic

[ARB]

Fridays snow looks very light and patchy and sleety, maybe a few 5 minute light snow flurries, but got to agree with Ian Brown, the Atlantic rolls in on Saturday 8th, and will be mild and zonal for the rest of the month, just hope its reasonably dry,

never know feb may offer a bit more winter, but with high sun and longish days any snow wont last long, even if it stays blocked from Atlantic. I had snow on 31st Jan last year, it remained cold, but my snow thawed everywhere due to time of year not the Atlantic

Its not always true of february snow, I remember 1991 the snow then certainly stuck around for at least a week, and plenty of it. I also believe that in 1947 the bulk of the snow was during february and early march. And come to think of it I remember 1986 when there was some snow around all month. The sun does melt snow, in marginal situations yes where humidity is high but if the conditions are right snowfall in february can be every bit as disruptive and long lasting as at any other time of year.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Its not always true of february snow, I remember 1991 the snow then certainly stuck around for at least a week, and plenty of it. I also believe that in 1947 the bulk of the snow was during february and early march. And come to think of it I remember 1986 when there was some snow around all month. The sun does melt snow, in marginal situations yes where humidity is high but if the conditions are right snowfall in february can be every bit as disruptive and long lasting as at any other time of year.

maybe true to an extent, but I am certain if we had last months exact synoptics in February, it would be less cold and more snow would have thawed, and no way would a max temp be as low as -5.1C

not a fan of February, I always think the best time of year for cold synoptics, for maximum effect snow, is from 01 Dec to around 15th Jan

[ARB]

maybe true to an extent, but I am certain if we had last months exact synoptics in February, it would be less cold and more snow would have thawed, and no way would a max temp be as low as -5.1C

not a fan of February, I always think the best time of year for cold synoptics, for maximum effect snow, is from 01 Dec to around 15th Jan

I don't disagree but the seas are colder in february and on average the month is colder than december so there is still hope (that is if you want cold weather of course). I certainly would consider it an impressive winter if february came in cold even after a mild january.

I also meant to add of course that you are stuck with whatever the weather delivers, so although I sometimes try influence the weather through sheer will power it never works. So you are best to chill out even if the weather doesn't.

[Costa Del Fal]

The sun isnt that strong in February, and only really begins to get noticeable towards the end of February. Mark, i can sense a bit of "winters over" in your post. I think any snow will last more than a few minutes on Friday if it occurs at all. Of course it could be all rain (which wouldnt surprise me) but no one knows how long the Atlantic influence will last. To say its in for January at only the 5th is really not a statement i would make!

[Cheese Rice]

never know feb may offer a bit more winter, but with high sun and longish days any snow wont last long, even if it stays blocked from Atlantic. I had snow on 31st Jan last year, it remained cold, but my snow thawed everywhere due to time of year not the Atlantic

Well no this isn't the case, if we look at February 2009 cold spell the synoptics (overall) weren't of note, with 0 to -5 850's covering much of the country, yet London city center held on to snowfall for a whole week (well the houses next to the isle of dogs), and there was on average 15 CM in the city, yes there was more in the suburbs but there was considerably less in the center.

Also over here we held on to snow cover for 11 days even though temperatures by day averaged around 1-2.c.

[Gord]

....and in March, the sun can start having quite a good effect on showers that pop up. Lying snow woouldn't last long but it can get spectacular as it falls. (I'm thinking either March 2007 or 2008 here...can't remember which one, I lived in Gnosall, Staffordshire at the time and there was hail, thunder and lightning, sleet and snow all in the same afternoon!)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

....and in March, the sun can start having quite a good effect on showers that pop up. Lying snow woouldn't last long but it can get spectacular as it falls. (I'm thinking either March 2007 or 2008 here...can't remember which one, I lived in Gnosall, Staffordshire at the time and there was hail, thunder and lightning, sleet and snow all in the same afternoon!)

remember that, had everything that day, snow, sleet, hail, sun, thunder, lightning, wind and rain, was very interesting Mon 19th March 07

[Summer of 95]

Its not always true of february snow, I remember 1991 the snow then certainly stuck around for at least a week, and plenty of it. I also believe that in 1947 the bulk of the snow was during february and early march. And come to think of it I remember 1986 when there was some snow around all month. The sun does melt snow, in marginal situations yes where humidity is high but if the conditions are right snowfall in february can be every bit as disruptive and long lasting as at any other time of year.

It's something that's been really noticeable in the last 5 years or so, the way February snow struggles to stay on the ground for any length of time. March and April- yes, we know they tend to melt quickly, but February always used to stick around.

1991, 1994, 1996 February snow hardly had any thawing during the day, only went once the temp got to about 5C and/or rained. 2005 it barely settled, when it did it lasted a maximum 6 hours. Even Feb 2009 it really struggled to stay around, the falls on the 2nd (1cm) 5th (3cm) 6th (1cm) were all gone by at the latest 6pm. The 5cm overnight 2nd-3rd lasted till about midday on the 4th. 2010 as well- as a previous poster pointed out even the snowfalls of 30 and 31 Jan melted in the day, as did that of 1st Feb. The ionly other time snow stuck that month- 21st Feb- it melted in the sun by noon in temps of 1-2C.

In Feb 2007 though, a very mild month, it did manage to stay on the ground for 3 whole days. Strange.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It's something that's been really noticeable in the last 5 years or so, the way February snow struggles to stay on the ground for any length of time. March and April- yes, we know they tend to melt quickly, but February always used to stick around.

1991, 1994, 1996 February snow hardly had any thawing during the day, only went once the temp got to about 5C and/or rained. 2005 it barely settled, when it did it lasted a maximum 6 hours. Even Feb 2009 it really struggled to stay around, the falls on the 2nd (1cm) 5th (3cm) 6th (1cm) were all gone by at the latest 6pm. The 5cm overnight 2nd-3rd lasted till about midday on the 4th. 2010 as well- as a previous poster pointed out even the snowfalls of 30 and 31 Jan melted in the day, as did that of 1st Feb. The ionly other time snow stuck that month- 21st Feb- it melted in the sun by noon in temps of 1-2C.

In Feb 2007 though, a very mild month, it did manage to stay on the ground for 3 whole days. Strange.

I remember the 21st Feb, yeah classic example that the 'time of year' thaws the snow, I had around 2 inches, no mild air arrived, clear sky, my snow thawed. If that synoptic situation had been 21st Dec, there would have been no thawing, only on S and W facing roofs

feb 07 did well, slight thaws, but thaw arrived on 10th when Atlantic rolled in.

Dec 2010 charts up now on wetterzentrale archives!

Edited January 5, 2011 by snow? norfolk n chance

[Strider]

Ironically the biggest snow event of the last 2 years for this neck of the woods was very early March for 09/10, and end of Nov for this winter so far.

I.e. not in the winter months at all!

[andy_leics22]

Ironically the biggest snow event of the last 2 years for this neck of the woods was very early March for 09/10, and end of Nov for this winter so far.

I.e. not in the winter months at all!

Over the last 6 years or so... The best snow events we have had here have occurred during March/April!

[Summer of 95]

I remember the 21st Feb, yeah classic example that the 'time of year' thaws the snow, I had around 2 inches, no mild air arrived, clear sky, my snow thawed. If that synoptic situation had been 21st Dec, there would have been no thawing, only on S and W facing roofs

feb 07 did well, slight thaws, but thaw arrived on 10th when Atlantic rolled in.

Dec 2010 charts up now on wetterzentrale archives!

On 21st Feb the sun's altitude here at noon is almost exactly the same as on Jan 5th in New York- why don't they get the quick thawing in early January like we do in late Feb?

Look forward to checking those charts for years to come!