The Midlands - Cold Spell Discussion Part 20

[PolarWarsaw]

Odd sleety flake here this morning, mostly rain though. Shows height is everything in situtations of marginality.

[conor123]

Shawbury was on -5 at 10 last night, the ground was frozen solid this morning, and it was raining at 0C. Not a hint of sleet- it was freezing as it hit the roads. Never seen rain in conditions like that, and never seen so much black ice. Looking at the reports it seems to have been only Shrewsbury, Telford and north Shropshire that got it- Staffs and Birm got snow and sleet, Cheshire nothing at all, Manchester northwards snow- weird.

Indeed numerous reports of overturned cars this morning and seen a few crashes out and about earlier!

As you can see for the 06z chart the area which seemed to of had rain/freezing rain was around that pocket of -1 850hPa air whilst the rest of the region was under slightly colder uppers so im guessing that must of been the reason, it was rather frostless aswell surprisingly around these parts last night despite a low of -4c which seemed odd as skies were clear yesterday evening.

Anyway it certainly looks potentially very messy on Friday, temperatures falling widely to -4/-5c Thursday Night with Fridays low steaming in bringing heavy precipitation before the milder air has mixed down to the surface could well bring a repeat or even some heavy snow for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs818.gif

15z Friday for example has dewpoints and surface temps still just below freezing here with similar uppers to this morning!

Edited January 4, 2011 by conor123

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/wm_forecast_warnings.html

Friday weather warning out !!

Fingers crossed

[Strider]

Well it's an advisory not a warning.

Advisories are issued even when there is significant doubt of something occuring, just to "cover their backs" as it were.

When (or if) it gets upgraded to an orange Flash warning, then you can get excited as it means there's a greater than 60% chance of it occuring!

[Barbmac]

Quote MetO for the W.Midlands:

Heavy Snow Fri 7 Jan

A band of snow will move south to north turning to rain. Several centimetres of snow are possible, particularly over hills.

Issued at: 1119 Tue 4 Jan

:smiliz19: Although the turning to rain bit is pants.

@andy_leics: I'm surprised your Mum hasn't got strict instructions to wake you at the slightest appearance of a white flake!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think midlands has a good chance of snow on friday, seems to be being pushed back though, now due around midday, think someone in Welsh thread reckons it may stall? but I think it will reach and turn less cold on saturday. UKMO has a great chart for monday, cheshire gap

Edited January 4, 2011 by ajpoolshark
no need for constant sniping !

[ANYWEATHER]

Yes ,certainly a "risk" of some heavy snow for a short time,at some point on Friday even at low ground anywhere North of the M4 and of course even more so on the high ground , these situations need to be closely followed with every run, but an interesting situation nonetheless!! :smiliz23:

[Costa Del Fal]

Interesting that the meto have changed Friday nights rain to sleet now, suggesting the low further South and less warm air advancing north. Still, it seems the snow wont be too heavy if it occurs but better than nothing.

[Essan]

Advisories are issued even when there is significant doubt of something occuring, just to "cover their backs" as it were.

No, they're issued when there's a possibility of something happening that may cause disruption, so that authorities and other interested parties are aware of the possibility and know to keep an eye on updates and be prepared.

At present it does look like some parts of the Midlands could well see a spell of snow for a time - though it's too soon to say where (hence a general advisory covering most of the country).

Interesting that the meto have changed Friday nights rain to sleet now, suggesting the low further South and less warm air advancing north. Still, it seems the snow wont be too heavy if it occurs but better than nothing.

??? The W Midlands forecast only mentions snow, turning to rain on Saturday.

Edited January 4, 2011 by Essan

[andy_leics22]

I think Friday's event will be about as interesting as having a tooth pulled out with a pair of tweezers and no painkillers. Wet snow turning to rain and then 9c temps on Saturday? No thanks :lol:

[Strider]

No, they're issued when there's a possibility of something happening that may cause disruption, so that authorities and other interested parties are aware of the possibility and know to keep an eye on updates and be prepared.

Ummm... that's effectively what I said :blink:

Even if it does snow, it won't be around long as the weather looks set to return to average or slightly above average levels into Mid January.

[Gord]

I think Friday's event will be about as interesting as having a tooth pulled out with a pair of tweezers and no painkillers. Wet snow turning to rain and then 9c temps on Saturday? No thanks :lol:

I wouldn't say that it isn't interesting, but I do agree that it's not worth getting excited about the way its looking. However, had December not had happened, and this was our first real shot at snow this winter, I'm sure it would have been a different story.

Edited January 4, 2011 by Gord

[Costa Del Fal]

No, they're issued when there's a possibility of something happening that may cause disruption, so that authorities and other interested parties are aware of the possibility and know to keep an eye on updates and be prepared.

At present it does look like some parts of the Midlands could well see a spell of snow for a time - though it's too soon to say where (hence a general advisory covering most of the country).

??? The W Midlands forecast only mentions snow, turning to rain on Saturday.

Sorry i should of said the map symbols. Not that i trust them! Friday doesnt excite me anyway. Will melt straight away if it does snow.

[conor123]

Yes it looks like any snow on Friday will get washed away but the 18z moves it in much quicker bringing fairly heavy snow for a few hours Friday Morning which has the potential for being disruptive before the mild air arrives, hopefully something nearer to the UKMO solution will happen with lower uppers staying over us for longer.

[kar999]

Sorry i should of said the map symbols. Not that i trust them! Friday doesnt excite me anyway. Will melt straight away if it does snow.

Agreed. I was only half watching but I'm sure the 10:35pm BBC forecast showed the rain/snow band on Thursday/Friday moving North with +9C just to the south of it and +4C in the snow section and just to the north of it. ....

[Arctic Hare]

I think Friday's event will be about as interesting as having a tooth pulled out with a pair of tweezers and no painkillers. Wet snow turning to rain and then 9c temps on Saturday? No thanks :lol:

I'm just being mischievous here, as I know the setup is different, but I seem to remember an event when that looked likely, but against most of the forecasts the cold fought back and we had another day of snow, giving a weekend that before the last few winters was a real highlight. Yes, I'm talking about Feb 2007...

Edited January 4, 2011 by Arctic Hare

[Strider]

Felt very modern out there this morning, mild and wet although at least not too windy.

[Serendipity]

Felt very modern out there this morning, mild and wet although at least not too windy.

That's interesting because I just came on to post about how windy it is!

[mozza81]

can see it being a cold slushy and blustery friday tbh...................

where are all the big snowfall likes of the 80s and early 90s....................................OK the snow didnt hang around for too long after but the intensity and the depths were great. This is what im waiting for.

[andy_leics22]

I'm just being mischievous here, as I know the setup is different, but I seem to remember an event when that looked likely, but against most of the forecasts the cold fought back and we had another day of snow, giving a weekend that before the last few winters was a real highlight. Yes, I'm talking about Feb 2007...

I'd like you to be right of course, I think the writing is on the wall for Friday's event now though, it could possibly be an all rain event, not even sleet or snow on the leading edge.

[frozencanals]

just driven from Northampton to Nottingham (up the M1) and went through a couple of quite heavy wintry showers, mostly rain & sleet but it did turn to wet snow for a minute or 2. Did not expect that today

Cheers

FC

Edited January 5, 2011 by frozencanals

[andy_leics22]

just driven from Northampton to Nottingham (up the M1) and went through a couple of quite heavy wintry showers, mostly rain & sleet but it did turn to wet snow for a minute or 2. Did not expect that today

Cheers

FC

It was probably around North Leicestershire, Coalville area, it's higher up there, about 150m in parts.

[Exile from the North]

While we await the next opportunity for significant snow (not holding our collective breath) here is a song about a colder time

[A.J]

What a thoroughly dismal day today...Heavy rain off and on all day, it's absolutely belting down now, however I have noticed a hint of sleetyness in the latest batch of rain

[Arctic Hare]

A pretty grotty day here as well. It's been around 5-6 °C since the early hours, with no sun, but plenty of murk and light rain. Feels cold, but isn't actually cold; the worst type of winter weather. A nice northerly with bright, cold days seems very attractive just now... shame we're not getting one

Edit: some interest regarding Friday with this afternoon's output. The updated MetO regional forecasts now suggest wintriness on Friday morning -- and the NAE +48 follows suit, with snow shown over most of Wales and the Midlands for the 06-12h segment:

NAE +48 (Fri morning)

Edited January 5, 2011 by Arctic Hare