Met O Self Appraisal Of Big Freeze

[LomondSnowstorm]

I guess it depends where you live? There was never any forecast for widespread heavy snow that I saw, and even when snow was, initially, mentioned it was obvious this would be turning to rain. The basics of the forecast was precipitation followed by mider conditions. The MetO are not snow obsessives - their tick is for the synoptic change in weather from cold to mild, accompanied by rain. This is what they forecast to happen, this is what happenned. The fact the rain was not preceded by snow as initially suggested is neither here nor there in turns of overall synoptic development. However, had there been widespread heavy snow and no change to milder conditions then they would have been wrong.

Clearly they are not. The number of times in the last few years they've failed to pick up on a major snowfall event in Scotland until snow was accumulating is ludicrous, and most of the time it was evident from mere radar watching a few hours prior to it making landfall that it was going to produce a large amount of snow.

[Essan]

Clearly they are not. The number of times in the last few years they've failed to pick up on a major snowfall event in Scotland until snow was accumulating is ludicrous, and most of the time it was evident from mere radar watching a few hours prior to it making landfall that it was going to produce a large amount of snow.

Ah, I see, we back to the time machine issue.

The MetO issue a forecast at 04.00am and at 09.00am it's snowing heavier than they forecast in your back garden, therefore why can't they go back and re-issue the forecast in the light of new information?

The MetO do not issue a rolling half hourly updated internet forecast. Maybe they should? But until they do you cannot critiscise them because the 12 hourly updated forecast does not always reflect unexpected changes subsequent to the forecast time. That said, I never saw anything in indicate a certainty of snow at low level in this part of the world in any forecast. I admit I did not pay attention to the forecasts issued for other regions.

(I agree that BBC TV forecasts ought to better reflect current conditions/latest data but that's a wholly different issue)

Incidently, are we all agreed then that in most cases the MetO did very well :winky: Shouldn't we be congratulating them on that, rather than nit-picking over slight details concerning otherwise accurate synoptic predictions?

Edited January 3, 2011 by Essan

[NorthernRab]

Ah, I see, we back to the time machine issue.

The MetO issue a forecast at 04.00am and at 09.00am it's snowing heavier than they forecast in your back garden, therefore why can't they go back and re-issue the forecast in the light of new information?

The MetO do not issue a rolling half hourly updated internet forecast. Maybe they should? But until they do you cannot critiscise them because the 12 hourly updated forecast does not always reflect unexpected changes subsequent to the forecast time. That said, I never saw anything in indicate a certainty of snow at low level in this part of the world in any forecast. I admit I did not pay attention to the forecasts issued for other regions.

(I agree that BBC TV forecasts ought to better reflect current conditions/latest data but that's a wholly different issue)

Incidently, are we all agreed then that in most cases the MetO did very well :winky: Shouldn't we be congratulating them on that, rather than nit-picking over slight details concerning otherwise accurate synoptic predictions?

Actually, what LSS is referring to is that only light snow was forecast, - 2-5cm for most of lowland Scotland. What fell was closer to 10-15cm and the warnings were not updated causing much of the Central Belt to suffer from some very difficult travel conditions. They certainly should not get a tick for being some 200% off in terms of forecasted snowfall.

Also, many people have praised the Met Office for their long-range accuracy.

[cuckoo]

29 Nov-3 December 2010

Relentless snow showers over much of the North and East giving 20-30 cm of lying snow in South Yorkshire and around 40 cm in Lincolnshire.

Well there was 38cm even in the centre of Sheffield and many places had in excess of 40cm e.g. Chesterfield and I heard reports of Dronfield having in excess of 50cm.

I think they got the general areas affected well forecasted but underestimated the amount of snow that fell. A bit generous giving themselves a tick on that one.

26-27 December 2010

A marked change to milder weather pushed across the UK from the west preceeded by rain falling on frozen surfaces.

That certainly wasn't what was forecast for my area (even with the rain band about 1 hour away the BBC 10:30pm forecast still went for snow). Maybe the person who scored the Metoffice performance could also do my performance review at work.

On the whole I think the MetOffice did well, especially with the cold snap predictions, but in this article they overestimate their local snowfall performance IMO.