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paul tall

Met O Self Appraisal Of Big Freeze

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/how/case-studies/big-freeze

I'm sorry but giving themselves a tick for December 26-27th is as wrong as their forecast for widespread heavy snow was. Look at the table on the link. Are they serious?

Who fancies writing them an e-mail?

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I thought they handled the cold spell quite well, however they didn't do so well with the heavy snowfall that hit South Yorkshire, North Derbyshire, North Nottinghamshire and Linconshire at the end of November. They definitely underestimated the amount of the snow that fell, and the fact they did not give a red warning was bizarre. Especially as many roads where blocked with people stuck in there homes.

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The buggers gave themselves a tick for the central belt snowfall on that Monday rush hour where they said 2-5cm in places where around a foot fell. Bloody disgrace.

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They also don't mention the substantial snowfall across NW England on 17th?

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The tick for 26-27th of December is a joke. They (and the BBC) got that very wrong from a fairly short range. However, their long range forecasts were superb for picking out both cold spells.

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The tick for 26-27th of December is a joke. They (and the BBC) got that very wrong from a fairly short range. However, their long range forecasts were superb for picking out both cold spells.

I would certainly credit them with that!

A marked change to milder weather pushed across the UK from the west preceeded by rain falling on frozen surfaces.

As far as i was aware they predicted quite a bit of snow on the leading edge, at least if the weather warnings where to be believed! :cc_confused:

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I wondered if that might raise a few comments when I saw the tick for the 26th-27th Dec the other day. Also the 20th Dec I think they were generally going for 'slight to moderate' accumulations for the SW in the forecasts rather than the 15-25cm that fell (and BBC/MetO warnings going for 5-10cm) Though that may be being picky as I think they did quite well overall and I think the snow was more intense here than anyone/ any model thought.

Though I did think that the intensity of the central belt snowfall was un-forecast as well.

I agree that there longer range forecasts were very good for picking out the cold spells.. and the shorter range forecasts were often quite good though not always of course.

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They have clearly put the one cross in there to make it look like everyone makes mistakes but were still brilliant. I hate the way they brag and try to pull the wool over everyones eyes. Utter disgrace.

However saying that they did predict the cold conditions before quite well i thought.

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I agree with the general sentiment here - they were hit and miss with snow forecasting on a day to day basis but they picked out the long range patterns absolutely brilliantly.

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They have clearly put the one cross in there to make it look like everyone makes mistakes but were still brilliant. I hate the way they brag and try to pull the wool over everyones eyes. Utter disgrace.

However saying that they did predict the cold conditions before quite well i thought.

I also thought the one cross on Dec 9th should be a tick, seemed right to me, I certainly had freezing rain that morning, then rain onto frozen surfaces

see that was updated on 29th Dec, hmmm wonder why Dec 28th isnt added, when they gave significant snow for North and East England, that never happened

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As far as i was aware they predicted quite a bit of snow on the leading edge, at least if the weather warnings where to be believed! :cc_confused:

They were predicting snow, absolutely. The BBC (who are supposed to represent the Met Office) called for "a lot of snow" - their words, not mine. There were flash warnings out for snow for my county even when rain was falling out of the sky. It was obvious snow was not going to occur when upper air temperatures were above freezing. Even the Staffs moorlands only saw sleet

I don't mind them getting things wrong, but to then say they got it right is a disgrace.

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This is exactly why I don't trust them re climate change.

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It's cringeworthy to read this. Unfortunately, I have, over & over, and it makes me mad. :diablo:

The MetO is a big beast and hell mend anyone should they at least question them.

Nice how they mention all the good feedback received, but omit anything remotely poor (and right!)

Sickening.

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26-27 December 2010

A marked change to milder weather pushed across the UK from the west preceeded by rain falling on frozen surfaces.

Maybe I missed something, I thought this is what happened down in balmy Watford.

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This is exactly why I don't trust them re climate change.

Do you trust anybody? Not from the posts I've seen. Anyway there is a big difference betwen weather forecasting re. models and the the Hadley centre and climate change. As a matter of interest could you explain your mistrust in more detail so that just posibly a counter argument can be presented.

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Do you trust anybody? Not from the posts I've seen. Anyway there is a big difference betwen weather forecasting re. models and the the Hadley centre and climate change. As a matter of interest could you explain your mistrust in more detail so that just posibly a counter argument can be presented.

I'm not Paul Tall, but I'll have a damn good go at it...(the mistrust, that is)

You'll need to wait until tomorrow. It's late.

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What was interesting was the way that several of the Beeb forecasters during the period were at pains to stress "This is just a forecast - there's no guarantee": they obviously didn't believe the computer models either.

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Reading between the lines, Julia's upset that Santa didn't bring her a new computer for Christmas:

http://www.nature.co...t=Google+Reader

Perhaps she was naughty. :)

The last para. also indicates that she also wants someone with a really thick skin to apply for the new MetOff. Serious Climate czar position, as the MetOff. distance themselves from the UEA.

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26-27 December 2010

A marked change to milder weather pushed across the UK from the west preceeded by rain falling on frozen surfaces.

Maybe I missed something, I thought this is what happened down in balmy Watford.

It is, hence why they are describing that period as such, but that is not what they forecast at the time, nor did they forecast the severity of snowfall across central Scotland on Monday the 6th December either in spite of the big tick they stick against it. To an extent this is propaganda, telling us how great they did and trying to pull the wool over our eyes in spite of the clear failings that occurred, which I would fully accept if they at least damn well admitted to them.

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I also thought the one cross on Dec 9th should be a tick, seemed right to me, I certainly had freezing rain that morning, then rain onto frozen surfaces

That is what happened but it is a cross because it wasn't forecasted. Roads were complete chaos in north west England that morning.

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Compared with the excellent Piers Corbyn who so accurately forecast the Christmas/Boxing Day blizzards - from only a few days ahead - and the later ones at the end of December, I'd say the MetO were absoutely rubbish :rofl:

Personally I think the Meto did pretty good, though I'm sure PC fans and the usual anti-science mob will continue to deride them for failing to get the forecast 100% right for their own back gardens despite having a multi milion pound computer. Those who know nearly as much about weather as a house sparrow knows about plate tectonics will appreciate that forecasting is simply that and it's impossible to be right all the time.

btw as regards 26-27 December: "A marked change to milder weather pushed across the UK from the west preceeded by rain falling on frozen surfaces." - what bit do people think they got wrong???? :cc_confused:

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Compared with the excellent Piers Corbyn who so accurately forecast the Christmas/Boxing Day blizzards - from only a few days ahead - and the later ones at the end of December, I'd say the MetO were absoutely rubbish :rofl:

Personally I think the Meto did pretty good, though I'm sure PC fans and the usual anti-science mob will continue to deride them for failing to get the forecast 100% right for their own back gardens despite having a multi milion pound computer. Those who know nearly as much about weather as a house sparrow knows about plate tectonics will appreciate that forecasting is simply that and it's impossible to be right all the time.

btw as regards 26-27 December: "A marked change to milder weather pushed across the UK from the west preceeded by rain falling on frozen surfaces." - what bit do people think they got wrong???? :cc_confused:

Again, that was a description of what happened, not what they forecast. By PC do you mean political correctness or Plaid Cymru out of interest?

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Compared with the excellent Piers Corbyn who so accurately forecast the Christmas/Boxing Day blizzards - from only a few days ahead - and the later ones at the end of December, I'd say the MetO were absoutely rubbish :rofl:

Personally I think the Meto did pretty good, though I'm sure PC fans and the usual anti-science mob will continue to deride them for failing to get the forecast 100% right for their own back gardens despite having a multi milion pound computer. Those who know nearly as much about weather as a house sparrow knows about plate tectonics will appreciate that forecasting is simply that and it's impossible to be right all the time.

btw as regards 26-27 December: "A marked change to milder weather pushed across the UK from the west preceeded by rain falling on frozen surfaces." - what bit do people think they got wrong???? :cc_confused:

Firstly, we are not angry they got it wrong, we are angry that they are claiming they got things right that they didn't

Secondly, they got it wrong because they forecasted widespread, heavy snow at quite short range, and never really fully backtracked. They did not predict it to be an all rain-event as they claim.

And LS - He is referring to Piers Corbyn (aka the guy who predicts a mega snow storm every single week and when he finally gets one right he is hailed as some kind of God).

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Secondly, they got it wrong because they forecasted widespread, heavy snow at quite short range, and never really fully backtracked. They did not predict it to be an all rain-event as they claim.

I guess it depends where you live? There was never any forecast for widespread heavy snow that I saw, and even when snow was, initially, mentioned it was obvious this would be turning to rain. The basics of the forecast was precipitation followed by mider conditions. The MetO are not snow obsessives - their tick is for the synoptic change in weather from cold to mild, accompanied by rain. This is what they forecast to happen, this is what happenned. The fact the rain was not preceded by snow as initially suggested is neither here nor there in turns of overall synoptic development. However, had there been widespread heavy snow and no change to milder conditions then they would have been wrong.

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I guess it depends where you live? There was never any forecast for widespread heavy snow that I saw, and even when snow was, initially, mentioned it was obvious this would be turning to rain. The basics of the forecast was precipitation followed by mider conditions. The MetO are not snow obsessives - their tick is for the synoptic change in weather from cold to mild, accompanied by rain. This is what they forecast to happen, this is what happenned. The fact the rain was not preceded by snow as initially suggested is neither here nor there in turns of overall synoptic development. However, had there been widespread heavy snow and no change to milder conditions then they would have been wrong.

I know it's not strictly the Met Office, but it was very similar to the Met Office website (1:50 onwards)

That forecast (for widespread snow I'm sure you'll agree) was there until pretty much the event began to unfold. It shows pretty much all snow for Midlands northwards - not limited to high ground either.

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