Tropical Cyclone Tasha

[Somerset Squall]

A tropical cyclone has rapidly spun up in the western Coral Sea in the South Pacific, northeast of Cairns, Queensland. The invest it has formed from, 94P, has not shown any signs of development over the last day or so, but convection substantially increased today and the LLC tightened quickly. Tasha has an intensity of 40kts, but does not have all that long to strengthen as landfall will occur tomorrow (Christmas Day!).The cyclone is over warm water, low shear and is experiencing good poleward outflow. It's small size could mean that Tasha may attain a max windspeed of around 60kts if it makes good use of the environment, IMO.

[Somerset Squall]

Tasha moved inland this morning, and did not have time in the end to become any stronger than 40kts. Giving the Cairns area a good soaking though by the looks of things. Rains should gradually ease as Tasha moves further inland and dissipates.

[Somerset Squall]

Jeff Masters' new blog details how a week of heavy rains and Tasha's landfall has brough severe flooding to Queensland:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1718

[Cookie]

Blimey that's some rainfall!!