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A Winter's Tale

January CET

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Just thought I would start this. I've heard over in the Weather Outlook that Nothern Blocking could happen again in January. I'm going for a cold month but nothing spectacular.

2.7c

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I'll post my guess nearer the time, but here's a (tongue in cheek) thought just in case we have any lurkers from Streeton, West Yorkshire looking in.

Is it possible to get a winter month above 3C - not sure I will see one in my lifetime.

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0.1c but will probably be changed nearer to January.

That's very low. For that to happen you would need a very potent cold spell. If that were to happen we would have a classic winter on the cards.

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I will hold my guess right off till the last possibility this year, because I feel it will all depend on how the outcome of the disagreement between GFS, ECM and UKMO. If the UKMO is to believed then there is no reason January will not stat exceptionally cold. Time will tell.

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That's very low. For that to happen you would need a very potent cold spell. If that were to happen we would have a classic winter on the cards.

Ive got a feeling we might but confidence is very low so thats why I said will probably be changed nearer the time :)

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I'll come in nice and early for bonus points. even larger teapot is over, it's going to be a very mild month at 4.1c.

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4.5c, assuming the blocking breaks down at some point. If not then something below about 2.5c is probably more likely, but 4.5c is my guess. After all, we would be spoilt having three winter months below average.

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That's very low. For that to happen you would need a very potent cold spell. If that were to happen we would have a classic winter on the cards.

Do we not already? (wasn't sure if you were being sarcastic or not!)

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I'm might revise this before I go skiing... CPC (Or is it CFS?) charts indicating strong Northern blocking in January, so for now I will go for 1.4C

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Think HP will dominate for much of the month and I think we may well see a pretty cold start. Whether or not we get northern blocking is looking uncertain, I think we may well get a northerly shot before mid month.

I'm going to hold back for now though...

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-3.9, coldest month ever.

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Will wait till nearer the time however i can see HP being close by for much of the month. So drier and colder than average would be my guess at the moment. Nothing like December though. In the long term there are indications of heights rising over Greenland. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw another shot from the North during the first half of January. After that i reckon high pressure would be close by, if not over the UK.

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2.5c and see how many miles off I am.

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With cold sst's around the UK and little end in sight for the blocked pattern (I just don't buy the model's "default FI mode" to bring the atlantic in at all), I can't see Jan being anywhere near average. However, some milder incursions should float around the top of any high pressure systems at time, bringing nearer average temps (like the beginning of last week)

1.6 is my punt :)

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In these post-modern winters it seems the synoptics for an above 3C month have to be just right. We almost managed it in February but fell just short. You have to wonder if we'll ever see one again....

I think we will fall just short of the milestone at 2.8C

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I just can't see anything other then a cold, maybe very cold first 10 days to Jan. Whilst its uncertain whether its just faux cold or real deep cold...

so already it may well be a tough ask to get above average for where I think we will be by mid month...

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I'll go for -0.5C because that would make this winter about right for a long lasting good one, which IMO it will be remembered for.(totally illogical I know)

If a volcano erupts in Iceland VE 5 or above I'll go -2C.(damn logical, but please don't worry or get underwear in a twist about it) :smiliz19:

Have a good Boxing day everybody.

Russ

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