December CET

[A Winter's Tale]

How about 3.1c

I am predicting a cold - very cold start to the month.

Around the 4th I expect slightly less cold conditions.

From around 8th -16th or something - I expect wet and milder conditions

Christmas Time - Colder and possibly very cold

New Year Time - Getting colder.

[reef]

A cold month due to the first week, but rather close to average overall afterwards.

3.8C

[stewfox]

3.2c

[jonboy]

Very cold 10 days daytime temps to be near normal following 7days but low overnights then cold end.therefore 2.9 for me

[Norrance]

3.0c for me please.

[Weather-history]

Also, what are the top 10 coldest starts to December in the 20th century, looks like we have a big shot at being right close to the top I'd imagine.

Here are some cold December CETs up to the 7th

2008: 2.1

1998: 2.4

1976: 1.6

1962: 0.1

1957: 2.7

1952: 0.0

1950: 1.6

1947: 2.1

1933: 1.5

1925: -0.3

1916: 1.1

1903: 1.4

1902: 0.8

1894: 2.7

1892: 1.6

1890: 2.7

1889: 0.8

1886: 2.6

1882: 2.1

1879: -3.6

1878: 1.8

1875: 0.1

1874: 2.4

1871: 0.6

1870: 1.2

1869: 0.5

1867: 1.6

1846: 0.7

1844: -0.7

1839: 1.3

1837: 2.1

1816: 2.6

1807: 2.6

1804: 2.7

1803: 1.9

1801: 2.2

1800: 2.3

1796: -1.9

1791: 2.1

1788: 0.9

1784: 2.4

1782: 0.6

[Snowstorm1]

2.4c

[summer blizzard]

Upping my prediction to 3.6C, 1.5C below average as my previous prediction was OTT.

[virtualsphere]

I think it was 1963

Thanks, that would be quite a feat then - thought it might have been as recently as 1996 after I'd posted the question!

Sub 3C will still be a good effort if it came off, not sure how long the Atlantic is going to be delayed as we head into the second half of December mind you...

Yes, I notice after posting my guess of 2.7 yesterday both GFS and ECMWF now introduce milder air next week!

Still it's a long way off yet, so I'll stick with my guess.

[shuggee]

3.3ºC

[damianslaw]

Here are some cold December CETs up to the 7th

2008: 2.1

1998: 2.4

1976: 1.6

1962: 0.1

1957: 2.7

1952: 0.0

1950: 1.6

1947: 2.1

1933: 1.5

1925: -0.3

1916: 1.1

1903: 1.4

1902: 0.8

1894: 2.7

1892: 1.6

1890: 2.7

1889: 0.8

1886: 2.6

1882: 2.1

1879: -3.6

1878: 1.8

1875: 0.1

1874: 2.4

1871: 0.6

1870: 1.2

1869: 0.5

1867: 1.6

1846: 0.7

1844: -0.7

1839: 1.3

1837: 2.1

1816: 2.6

1807: 2.6

1804: 2.7

1803: 1.9

1801: 2.2

1800: 2.3

1796: -1.9

1791: 2.1

1788: 0.9

1784: 2.4

1782: 0.6

Every chance we will see our coldest first week to December since at least 1976 but doubt we will manage to beat 1963. 1998 stands out, many would probably be surprised to see this on the list, in fact it was the coldest bit of the winter for many thanks to quite a potent northerly.

[Duncan McAlister]

3.2C, but I think it could go lower

[Don]

3.7C for me please. After a very cold opening, I can see temps becoming close to normal after the 1st week and remain so for much of the rest of the month.

[Roger J Smith]

0.8 C

(expect a second and a third arctic blast later)

[Cymro]

3.6 for me.

[Stationary Front]

3.9 getting milder as the month progresses

[coram]

2.4 please

[Milhouse]

3.1c

Temperatures recovering but nothing really mild.

[Mark Bayley]

3.4c please

[TonyH]

2.5c please.

[AderynCoch]

Well here we are at the end of November and I was hoping by now to have a clearer picture regarding the breakdown of the cold spell, but there seems to be just as much uncertainty as ever! What is certain is that December will hit the ground running with significantly below average temperatures, and whenever the cold does relax its grip there's no guarantee that it will be mild (or even average). The tendency for mild temperatures also declines as December draws on, so any mildness later in the month shouldn't be as potent as that which can often be seen early in the month (but which definitely won't this time round!).

So I'm going to stick my neck out and go for 1.7C. Very cold first half, less so second half.

Edited November 30, 2010 by AderynCoch

[DR Hosking]

I will go for 4C

[Tom D]

I'll go with a cold start but turning much milder mid-month towards Christmas. 4.9c.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like the first 7 days could average around -1.8C going by the GFS 12z. Even if we had just average conditions for the rest of the month after that, we'd end up at just 3.2C. To get to the 61-90 figure, we'd need to average about 6.45 for the remainder of the month...

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

3.2C please