Methane Gas And Climate Change

[knocker]

UC Santa Barbara scientist studies methane levels in cross-continent drive

 

(Santa Barbara, Calif.) –– After taking a rented camper outfitted with special equipment to measure methane on a cross-continent drive, a UC Santa Barbara scientist has found that methane emissions across large parts of the U.S. are higher than currently known, confirming what other more local studies have found. Their research is published in the journal Atmospheric Environment.

 

 

http://(Santa Barbara, Calif.) –– After taking a rented camper outfitted with special equipment to measure methane on a cross-continent drive, a UC Santa Barbara scientist has found that methane emissions across large parts of the U.S. are higher than currently known, confirming what other more local studies have found. Their research is published in the journal Atmospheric Environment.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think this is the most suitable thread for this...

 

 

Renewable Energy will Overtake Natural Gas by 2016 - IEA

 

At its second annual Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report, the International Energy Agency, (IEA) said that by 2016 clean energy will overtake natural gas to become the second largest source of energy in the world behind coal.

 

In 2012 global renewable energy generation grew by 8%, far exceeding expectations. This rate of growth is predicted to continue, leading to an overall increase of 40% over the next five years, and meaning that they will account for 25% of the global energy mix by 2018.

 

 

 

More here http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Renewable-Energy-will-Overtake-Natural-Gas-by-2016-IEA.html

[knocker]

Cost of Arctic methane release could be 'size of global economy' warn experts

Economic modelling shows that the methane emissions caused by shrinking sea ice from just one area of the Arctic could come with a global price tag of 60 trillion dollars -- the size of the world economy in 2012

 

Researchers have warned of an "economic time-bomb" in the Arctic, following a ground-breaking analysis of the likely cost of methane emissions in the region.

 

Writing in a Comment piece in the journal, Nature, academics argue that a significant release of methane from thawing permafrost in the Arctic could have dire

 

 

implications for the world's economy. The researchers, from Cambridge and Rotterdam, have for the first time calculated the potential economic impact of a scenario some scientists consider increasingly likely – that methane from the East Siberian Sea will be emitted as a result of the thaw.

 

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-07/uoc-coa072313.php

Edited July 24, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

Some pertinent comments on the above.

 

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/07/how-likely-is-a-massive-arctic-methane-pulse-we-find-disagreement-amongst-scientists

[4wd]

This says something entirely different
http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/methane-hydrates-and-contemporary-climate-change-24314790

 

 

Conclusions

 

Catastrophic, widespread dissociation of methane gas hydrates will not be triggered by continued climate warming at contemporary rates (0.2ºC per decade; IPCC 2007) over timescales of a few hundred years. Most of Earth's gas hydrates occur at low saturations and in sediments at such great depths below the seafloor or onshore permafrost that they will barely be affected by warming over even 10³ yr. Even when CH₄ is liberated from gas hydrates, oxidative and physical processes may greatly reduce the amount that reaches the atmosphere as CH₄. The CO₂ produced by oxidation of CH₄released from dissociating gas hydrates will likely have a greater impact on the Earth system (e.g., on ocean chemistry and atmospheric CO₂concentrations; Archer et al. 2009) than will the CH₄ that remains after passing through various sinks.

Contemporary and future gas hydrate degradation will occur primarily on the circum-Arctic Ocean continental shelves (Sector 2; Macdonald 1990, Lachenbruch et al. 1994, Maslin 2010), where subsea permafrost thawing and methane hydrate dissociation have been triggered by warming and inundation since Late Pleistocene time, and at the feather edge of the GHSZ on upper continental slopes (Sector 3), where the zone's full thickness can dissociate rapidly due to modest warming of intermediate waters. More CH₄ may be sequestered in upper continental slope gas hydrates than in those associated with subsea permafrost; however, CH₄ that reaches the seafloor from dissociating Arctic Ocean shelf gas hydrates is much more likely to enter the atmosphere rapidly and as CH₄, not CO₂. Proof is still lacking that gas hydrate dissociation currently contributes to seepage from upper continental slopes or to elevated seawater CH₄ concentrations on circum-Arctic Ocean shelves. An even greater challenge for the future is determining the contribution of global gas hydrate dissociation to contemporary and future atmospheric CH₄ concentrations.

 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

This says something entirely different

http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/methane-hydrates-and-contemporary-climate-change-24314790

 

 

 

 

Really? What's entirely different?

 

Contemporary and future gas hydrate degradation will occur primarily on the circum-Arctic Ocean continental shelves (Sector 2; Macdonald 1990, Lachenbruch et al. 1994, Maslin 2010), where subsea permafrost thawing and methane hydrate dissociation have been triggered by warming and inundation since Late Pleistocene time, and at the feather edge of the GHSZ on upper continental slopes (Sector 3), where the zone's full thickness can dissociate rapidly due to modest warming of intermediate waters.

 

Seems to be in agreement to me? That nature article says widespread disassociation won't occur, but that the Arctic continental shelve deposits are at risk. 

[Gray-Wolf]

I think that the other thing to note is how rapidly the East siberian sector is changing? We had out first 'heads up' in 2010 when this paper was being peer reviewed ( released in 2011)  so it's info may well have been in keeping with the early noughty papers it cites but is now out of step with the unfolding reality on the ground.

 

 

This appears to be an 'new trick' for the climate misleaders ? we see them even parading the TAR4 as proof that things will not be as bad as more recent studies suggest even after the so savagely dismissed it at it's release? There appears to be no consistancy in their behaviours allowing them to grab at anything that serves their purpose even when it is quite aged and superceded?

 

With the Arctic as a whole the changes are way ahead of predictions and the pace of change is very fast so we need be wary of papers that have been superceded by events on the ground? It's like holding up a Whitestar press release for the Titanic claiming it's unsinkable as it breaks it's back before diving to the depths behind you?

 

We saw papers claiming that the Greenland melt had peaked in 2010 paraded by a few members on here even as 2012 was in full swing??? Who , apart from themselves, are they fooling?

Edited July 25, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[keithlucky]

I think that the other thing to note is how rapidly the East siberian sector is changing? We had out first 'heads up' in 2010 when this paper was being peer reviewed ( released in 2011)  so it's info may well have been in keeping with the early noughty papers it cites but is now out of step with the unfolding reality on the ground.

 

 

This appears to be an 'new trick' for the climate misleaders ? we see them even parading the TAR4 as proof that things will not be as bad as more recent studies suggest even after the so savagely dismissed it at it's release? There appears to be no consistancy in their behaviours allowing them to grab at anything that serves their purpose even when it is quite aged and superceded?

 

With the Arctic as a whole the changes are way ahead of predictions and the pace of change is very fast so we need be wary of papers that have been superceded by events on the ground? It's like holding up a Whitestar press release for the Titanic claiming it's unsinkable as it breaks it's back before diving to the depths behind you?

 

We saw papers claiming that the Greenland melt had peaked in 2010 paraded by a few members on here even as 2012 was in full swing??? Who , apart from themselves, are they fooling?

Unprecedented changes in the Arctic  lets take a look No panic calm down Grey Wolf.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Unprecedented changes in the Arctic  lets take a look No panic calm down Grey Wolf.

 

What on Earth is that supposed to show?

[knocker]

Oh no unprecedented changes in the Arctic

Edited July 25, 2013 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Unprecedented changes in the Arctic  lets take a look No panic calm down Grey Wolf.

Aye, keith...What is it!

[Gray-Wolf]

Whatever he wants it to be? Very Monkton-esque......

[knocker]

Large, Troubling Methane Pulse Coincides With Arctic Heatwave, Tundra Fires

 

During a murder investigation, sometimes you find traces of smoke from a gun fired in relation to the crime. In other cases, sometimes you find the gun itself. Even more rarely, do you find a smoking gun dropped at a still fresh crime scene. Such was the case with the Arctic today.

 

The crime scene: another anomalous Arctic heat wave. The suspect: human caused climate change. The accessory: Arctic amplification. The smoking gun: major methane emission in the Arctic.

 

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2013/07/24/large-troubling-methane-pulse-coincides-with-arctic-heatwave/

Edited July 28, 2013 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

I've been reading that the Russian researchers that did the studies over the east Siberian shelf ( and found the km wide 'chimneys') suddenly went on extended leave and then came back without putting out the findings of their 2011 expedition??

 

Anyone got any more info on the validity of this 'tale'?

 

I remember some newspaper reports on the trip as they were heading back to compile the findings ( hence the growth from 10m chimneys into km wide structures in a years time span) but nothing since?

 

If you recall seas Capt.s were reporting 'boiling oceans' over the deposits and there was a hastily assembled international study team sent off to investigate.

 

Emmisons are still seeming to increase over the peak output periods but nothing reported nor any 'return trips'???

 

Maybe if you don't look you don't find worrying changes in the deposits?

[knocker]

What is the deal with Methane?

 

Recently a comment published in Nature made the case for a catastrophic release of the methane (a very potent GHG) in the Arctic which in turn could cause sudden warming and cause massive economic damage in the trillions of dollars.

 

Scary stuff! But before you panic it would be worth reading through a series of tweets by Gavin Schmidt who does an excellent job of putting the methane bomb in some much-needed context:

 

http://planet3.org/2013/07/26/what-is-the-deal-with-methane/

Edited July 29, 2013 by knocker

[knocker]

I find this quite well balanced.

 

Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate

Here at Skeptical Science, there is an ongoing effort to combat disinformation from with those who maintain that climate change is a non-issue or non-reality. From time to time, however, individuals or groups overhype the impacts of climate change beyond the realm of plausibility.  Some of this is well-intentioned but misguided.  For those who advocate climate literacy or for scientists who engage with the public, it is necessary to call out this stuff in the same manner as one would call out a scientist who doesn’t think that the modern CO2 rise is due to human activities.

 

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=2130

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/jul/31/artic-methane-catastrophe-empirical-evidence

 

I knowe it's snooze paper but the ref's are good. I am notreasured that we can ignore the contribution we are now getting from both land based permafrost meltdown and the East Siberian submerged permafrost.

 

Much later down the line we are best not to ignore the River Delta cathrates as the ocean warmth becomes an issue to the depth the reside at? We already see the Bermuda triangle releases and we can see how warm the anoms around the gulf are becoming each summer?

[Interitus]

A follow-up Guardian article to the one above - http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/aug/05/7-facts-need-to-know-arctic-methane-time-bomb

[Gray-Wolf]

It increasingly appears that the 4th ice age included a massive ice sheet that entered the Arctic ocean from the Siberian side and was present throughout the Eemian warm spell? This means that the troubling permafrosts were never exposed to the warming that they currently see so we cannot rely on their past stability in temp/GHG concentrations that mimic those of today.

 

It appears self evident that this is their first melt out by the surface deformations that recent studies had discovered growing at alarming rates. Any past destabilisations would have left scars from those eruptions on a scale ( over km's across) of those we see evolving today?

 

I'm sure the plots from this years emissions will once again be an increase on past years but we hear nothing of the alleged 'ongoing' scientific study of the region? If 'm missing an expedition then I'd be grateful of it's details and itinerary ( still awaiting the Sharakova report from 2011??).

 

As for the Delta deposits in front of the planets major river delta's ( mainly Nile and Amazon ) we would need to either see ocean depth become shallower ( not seemingly likely) or ocean temps take a leap upwards? With what we have seen with deep ocean temps over this alledged 'warming pause' I can see ocean currents enabling a rapid temp rise as warmed deep ocean currents return to the surface allowing more heat to be taken up ( and not spent on as much warming of  the cold upwelling waters) at the depths where the deposits reside?

 

'Definates' are good when running simple calcs but the planet is a far more dynamic place than the economists 'all other things being equal' pre-requisit. We only need to see a short term rise in ocean temps in a particular location to suddenly see big eruptions made possible?

 

Looking at the Amazon I have to wonder what occurs to river temps themselves when the land alters from forrest to grassland and the rains become merely seasonal? Does a warmer river discharging over the deposits at the Delta  pose a threat to the stability of those deposits?

 

Anyhow my concerns are with the permafrosts ( terrestrial and submerged ). The climate report from 2012 shows a record high temp from the north slope permafrosts ( Alaska ) so I wonder how they fared this summer through Alaska's heatwave? Siberia is also again heat blighted and burning so what of the permafrosts there?

[Gray-Wolf]

And then I wonder why some folk appear to remain blissfully unaware of all that is studied whilst claiming there is no such evidence........

 

Jump over to the manmade thread where I posted the link to the current research looking at where our ice sheets resided through the last major glacial epoch. We all know about the one that crawled across the north Sea to envelop us and the U.S. equivalent but we were missing the info from eurasia ( were we not?) .We could see that the Majority formed the habitat for the Mega Fauna ( whose remains are now melting out in quantities so fast as it to form the basis of the current Ivory trade) but not the home of a vast ice sheet.

 

Happy juice? Look at the international study of the Submerged permafrost and the 'discovery' of those 'chimneys' venting methane at such a rate as to allow it free passage through the ocean overburden ( rather than disolving into the waters) then jump forward to the last mutterings from the lead scientists about the growth of those 'Chimneys' from features 10's of metres across to in excess of 1 km across over the space of one year ( 2010/2011).

 

What is your understanding of the future of the amazon rainforrest? The fact that we have seen it undergo 2 " 1 in 100yr" droughts in the past 10yrs may bring you a hint? Couple that with the movement of the Tropics toward their respective poles and the blanks fill in further.

 

Hheck the NOAA report card for the global climate in 2012. you will find the north slope records in there.

 

Happy hunting!

[Gray-Wolf]

Looks like we are destined to break ,and then re-break, the levels of atmospheric CH4 this year? We 'peaked' last at 1811ppb and so wonder if that is us done for the year?

 

The media seemed to get embroilled in the costs of methaneto the global ecconomy but have skipped over the record levels of CH4 in our atmosphere this year?

 

Seeing as some of the'denials' of the cost ofmethane releases were based on pre-07' data I'm not surprised that they shied away from the increases since if arguing for 'no problem'?

 

EDIT: Also found this;

 

http://phys.org/news/2013-08-permafrost-carbon.html

 

which shows that we are now 'mining' the old permafrost reserves.

 

Things will change fast. You might see little change whilst temps rise from minus 8c to minus 2c but when the change runs from minus 2c to plus 21c ( as much of the permafrost regions have seen at some point over this summer) then you have to accept that change will occur?

Edited August 19, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

Latest graph I've seen GW

 

 

[knocker]

Response to 'Arctic methane bomb' paper by Nisbet et al at Nature (online)

 

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v499/n7459/full/499401a.html#comment-59763

 

And in more depth.

 

http://equianos.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/Response-to-Whiteman_et-al-Comment.pdf

[Gray-Wolf]

Found this from back in 2010 ( before she dropped her studies???)

 

http://climatestate.com/2013/08/26/methane-release-from-the-east-siberian-arctic-shelf-and-the-potential-for-abrupt-climate-change/

[fishthekiller500]

Thought I would bring up an Arctic News article which describes, what they describe, the possible beginnings of Runaway Global Warming with high levels of Methane over the Laptev Sea and East Arctic Shelf. 

 

 

We could be watching the beginnings of this. If the red on the 1750 ppb and the yellow on the 1950 ppb setting on the methanetracker.org keeps spreading and intensifies, we are watching it happen. I hope this is an anomaly and these areas return to little or no activity.

 

 

http://arctic-news.blogspot.ie/2013/10/epic-methane-releases-from-east-siberian-arctic-shelf.html#comment-form

 

If I am right we had levels similar to these Methane levels last year over that location, but I could be wrong on that. The best evidence I have for this comes from a past article from Arctic News: http://arctic-news.blogspot.ie/2012/12/high-methane-levels-persist-in-december-2012.html

 

 

 

Here is what is on Methane Tracker for October 24th 2013. 

 

Edited October 25, 2013 by fishthekiller500