Rjs And Bftp Winter 2010/11 Lrf

[weather eater]

Hi Folks,

I'd just like to add what a great thread this is, ... ... and lets face it, its down to Roger and Fred's willingness to engage and discuss both plaudit and critical comments.

This is a fascinating area of LRF'ing and together with the 'teleconnection' side of things really underscores (in my opinion) what a complicated business forecasting weather ... and climate is.

For what its worth (and just my two pennith worth), the fact that we have seen (on average) a suppressed jet stream over a period of over two-three years ..... coinciding with low solar activity looks more than just chance.

Roger and Fred have been right up there with GP in regards accuracy .... and its all so very interesting. Its becoming clear to me that solar and quite possibly lunar factors do have a role to play.

Keep up the great work guys .... and please keep updating.

Y.S

I know I'm like a dog with a bone about this, Rodger and Fred have had some notable successes but they are not up there with GP, not even near it yet in my opinion. However, I'm sure they are doing the best that they can to hone their method and close the gap.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I know I'm like a dog with a bone about this, Rodger and Fred have had some notable successes but they are not up there with GP, not even near it yet in my opinion. However, I'm sure they are doing the best that they can to hone their method and close the gap.

I agree, I'm not in the same race as GP yet but my handicap is improving :lol: I would say RJS is though and not a biased comment from me, I believe they are in the same race and both I hold in high regard.

BFTP

[UV-RAY]

I agree, I'm not in the same race as GP yet but my handicap is improving :lol: I would say RJS is though and not a biased comment from me, I believe they are in the same race and both I hold in high regard.

BFTP

I think it's a case of some being reluctant to accept that natural forcings have, and will continue to be, the dominant factor governing our climate.

[weather eater]

I think it's a case of some being reluctant to accept that natural forcings have, and will continue to be, the dominant factor governing our climate.

Like whom, this is a thread about Rodger and Fred’s LRF, yours is about the 5th or 6th post to allude to climate change. Just for the record, I don't know of any AGW believers who don't accept that natural forcings play a crucial factor in our climate. So lets not drag this thread into that territory, there are plenty of other places to discuss climate change.

I agree, I'm not in the same race as GP yet but my handicap is improving :lol: I would say RJS is though and not a biased comment from me, I believe they are in the same race and both I hold in high regard.

BFTP

You have as I said had some notable successes, given this years forecast I hope that happens this winter. As for Rodger I guess I don't pay as much attention to his predictions as I should do, so I shall endeavour to tune in and get back to you.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/19/integrating-enso-multidecadal-changes-in-sea-surface-

This study demonstrates what I've chirped on about with regards to the Perturbation Cycle, a solar driven cycle...El Nino domination and La Nina domination. I have it as an approx 36 year cycle and is solar driven and has global impacts. It is also superimposed onto a bigger cycle [grand minima] and hence why I mention southward movement of the jet, a dominant -ve NAO state and of general cooling to occur. Just may help to show a bit of where I'm coming from.

BFTP

[weather eater]

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/19/integrating-enso-multidecadal-changes-in-sea-surface-

This study demonstrates what I've chirped on about with regards to the Perturbation Cycle, a solar driven cycle...El Nino domination and La Nina domination. I have it as an approx 36 year cycle and is solar driven and has global impacts. It is also superimposed onto a bigger cycle [grand minima] and hence why I mention southward movement of the jet, a dominant -ve NAO state and of general cooling to occur. Just may help to show a bit of where I'm coming from.

BFTP

Yes I guessed that was where you were coming from, time will tell as it usually does, If solar minima’s and a southward displacement of the jet are indeed linked, then it would be interesting to know just how and why it works. Unfortunately this is not really the place to discuss it, although you can always PM me with your ideas.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes I guessed that was where you were coming from, time will tell as it usually does, If solar minima’s and a southward displacement of the jet are indeed linked, then it would be interesting to know just how and why it works. Unfortunately this is not really the place to discuss it, although you can always PM me with your ideas.

No timescale but I will at some stage over coming months?

Fred

[Yorkshiresnows]

I know I'm like a dog with a bone about this, Rodger and Fred have had some notable successes but they are not up there with GP, not even near it yet in my opinion. However, I'm sure they are doing the best that they can to hone their method and close the gap.

That's your opinion. I have mine. All fair and no disrespect.

I am not dismissing G.P, but there is clearly a role in using solar amnd lunar factors in forecasting. Otherwise we would all be laughing at what is being suggested !!!

Lets see how this years pans out !!!

Y.S

[stormchaser1]

Afternoon everyone

Just had a quick read through RJS an BFTP winter forcast!, Nice read guys, {as usual} will have a good read through your forecast again properly when i am at work tonight! Hope everything Pans out for you,

As you know i usuallly do my forecasting using the Moon Theory, stopped posting my thoughts some time ago, because i was forever getting rediculed, some people used to laugh at my theories!, thats why i stopped , posting on here

[Rollo]

Afternoon everyone

Just had a quick read through RJS an BFTP winter forcast!, Nice read guys, {as usual} will have a good read through your forecast again properly when i am at work tonight! Hope everything Pans out for you,

As you know i usuallly do my forecasting using the Moon Theory, stopped posting my thoughts some time ago, because i was forever getting rediculed, some people used to laugh at my theories!, thats why i stopped , posting on here

Hi Nigel,Nice to see you back on NW,I do not seem to be able to PM you at present,I trust all is well and the winter does not disappoint,regards Mike.

[stormchaser1]

Hi Nigel,Nice to see you back on NW,I do not seem to be able to PM you at present,I trust all is well and the winter does not disappoint,regards Mike.

Hi Mike! yep its been a long time, hope everything is ok your way, i now work up in consett mainly on nites, so i will definately have fun and games, will try and email you at the weekend when im off

[virtualsphere]

A belated thanks to RJS & BFTP for this interesting forecast and all the work you've put in, an enjoyable read.

I'm interested in your thoughts for Feb, which seems to go against the more conventional forecasts I've seen. Am I correct in thinking that your method should work well over a longer timescale, as it isn't subject to model degredation (as RJS mentions on a previous post) so regardless of how your forecast for Dec pans out there is still an equal chance of your forecast for Feb verifying? If so, it will be worth reviewing the forecast at the end of winter given these differences.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Afternoon everyone

Just had a quick read through RJS an BFTP winter forcast!, Nice read guys, {as usual} will have a good read through your forecast again properly when i am at work tonight! Hope everything Pans out for you,

As you know i usuallly do my forecasting using the Moon Theory, stopped posting my thoughts some time ago, because i was forever getting rediculed, some people used to laugh at my theories!, thats why i stopped , posting on here

Hi Nigel

Persistence helps and when there appears to be some consistency in accuracy folk do start to be more open to it. I used to use lunar only but after seeing RJS theory and the roll of solar cycles I realised that in truth its the whole package that gives the full picture.

How about you look into the lunar phases and see what you come up with. Lunar phasing looks quite influential this winter.

Fred

A belated thanks to RJS & BFTP for this interesting forecast and all the work you've put in, an enjoyable read.

I'm interested in your thoughts for Feb, which seems to go against the more conventional forecasts I've seen. Am I correct in thinking that your method should work well over a longer timescale, as it isn't subject to model degredation (as RJS mentions on a previous post) so regardless of how your forecast for Dec pans out there is still an equal chance of your forecast for Feb verifying? If so, it will be worth reviewing the forecast at the end of winter given these differences.

Hi VS...thanks

In my position it helps if Dec verifies as it suggests I'm reading the signals correctly. So yes the signal 'generally' will remain the same now as in end of Jan.

Yes indeed the idea is to review at end of winter as like last year.

BFTP

Edited November 22, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Freezing-Point]

On the subject of Lunar Phasing being influencial.........

My Dad has sworn by this method all his life since being taught by his Dad (both farmers). I recall that a new moon would often coinside with a change in patterns.

What makes Lunar Phasing more or less incluencial in any given year?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On the subject of Lunar Phasing being influencial.........

My Dad has sworn by this method all his life since being taught by his Dad (both farmers). I recall that a new moon would often coinside with a change in patterns.

What makes Lunar Phasing more or less incluencial in any given year?

FP

I'll PM you over the next few days and provide some ideas

BFTP

[gottolovethisweather]

On the subject of Lunar Phasing being influencial.........

My Dad has sworn by this method all his life since being taught by his Dad (both farmers). I recall that a new moon would often coinside with a change in patterns.

What makes Lunar Phasing more or less incluencial in any given year?

My mother has read something similar to that too, in that 'whatever comes in on the new moon will set the pattern until the full moon'

Maybe it is something for a google search, whatever, some things should be taken on board, snowy coloured stoats being a portent of ice and lying snow appears to ring true for me.

Also, Roger's and Fred's and of course the odd similar style forecast have been 'on the ball' in general for the last 2 years at least, can't be bad.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited November 23, 2010 by gottolovethisweather

[SteveB]

Hi Roger/BFTP.

Any updates on your forecast. I ask, purely because GP has just posted in the in depth discussion, and is calling for a average Jan, slightly milder Feb

Edited November 28, 2010 by SteveB

[Roger J Smith]

I think we'll stick with our scenario, and personally I would have to say that a monumental severe winter is in the cards given this starting point -- I can also see the philosophy that would say eventually normal service would resume and this will fall into the rare category of early-ended winters. To some extent that was my conclusion back around October, at least to end the cold portion in mid-January, so we discussed that and I started to see other signs of a more severe prolonged regime with just the possibility of a brief reprieve in later January.

The way things are now setting up, a very severe winter could be developing. The retrograde index doesn't peak until around the 20th of December which coincides with northern max and full moon. What that means is that a very substantial blocking high could be pulled west out of deep Siberia at some point later next month and this current cold snap might be replaced at that point by something even more frigid.

Clearly the whole month of December isn't going to be sub-freezing, that would eclipse even the coldest months of December on record, and with energy peaks around the 13th and 20th-21st as discussed, these are times where the Atlantic may try to fight back -- the energy peak 4-6 Dec is already looking like an aborted warming of some kind with a renewed surge of cold. The GFS as we all know has a sort of in-built zonal default tendency that can often be viewed with a grain of salt in a cold spell like this. There have already been two phantom warming events in the 120-168h time scale during this cold spell. The dartboard low that had Paul Sherman threatening some sort of public display has thankfully taken a right turn near Seville and so the cold will continue this week, and Paul can maintain his decorum. Then we had some indications of a major warmup next weekend which are being scaled back with suggestions now (on ECM) of some sort of winter storm scenario.

Anyway, see what Fred has to say about all this, personally, I think there is some fairly good chance of a severe winter that might rival the big ones. What's already happened is pretty impressive and it's not technically winter yet although this is perhaps more winter than some regions saw from about 1988 to 2008.

Edited November 28, 2010 by Roger J Smith

[Gavin P]

Thanks Roger.

I'm really in a quandry about this, because I can see where GP (and Joe B'astardi) is coming from, but I can also see where you and Blast are coming from. The winter of 1916/1917 keeps nagging at the back of my mind.

[SteveB]

Thanks Roger, hope you are right

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Guys

been back to Swansea looking after my dad, severe back problems and needs care.

Writing this in a Redhill blizzard! I agree with Roger, our forecast remains and indeed I wish to add a little on this. Roger and I spoke that there is potential for a monster winter with the blocking signal...it has set in but on the colder limits of our parameters. This leads me to believe as per Roger that we will be talking of this winter against THE GREATS of the past, so for me possibility top 3 of last 110 years. There could be a slight less cold blip 6-9 but that is for far southern and SW areas before the cold quickly resets itself 9in truth the mild will be relative to the cold, so below average still likely]. Any model guidance for a total mild breakdown are IMO to be viewed as FI and not to believe unless within T48. I mused over the last 10 days on the model thread that record cold date temps in Dec could go.....well Nov Date temps have and I have a strong signal for Full Moon/northern max period that we'll see periods of both heavy snow and record cold temps.

GP could be right as Roger said he 'saw' similar BUT I foresaw that the frigid set up this NH winter will not give way and I think this cold will go on and on.....any milder set up will be more likely to be a 'relaxing' of the cold.

The jet is showing us where it wants to stay this winter.

BFTP

Edited December 1, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

A fascinating read! I can't really imagine this not being the coldest spell of winter!

[Northernlights]

Thanks for the update. I put a post on the Scottish thread saying that I thought you got the end of November spot on(encouraging us to start earlier than usual and to complete winter ploughing 2 days before thre snow arrived) and I felt that on the farm we had experienced a cooling trend in the last 3 winters and that it would probably carry on this winter. We have had three days now with a maximum temperature of -3c and lows of -10c with about 50 cm of snow on the ground unheard of at the end of November.

[johncoolj]

Thanks for the update. I put a post on the Scottish thread saying that I thought you got the end of November spot on(encouraging us to start earlier than usual and to complete winter ploughing 2 days before thre snow arrived) and I felt that on the farm we had experienced a cooling trend in the last 3 winters and that it would probably carry on this winter. We have had three days now with a maximum temperature of -3c and lows of -10c with about 50 cm of snow on the ground unheard of at the end of November.

hey how do you think this winter will be for east ireland dublin

[andy_leics22]

Well their forecast has been spot on so far