Rjs And Bftp Winter 2010/11 Lrf

[Typhoon John]

Great forecast guys!

I'd be happy if the Winter pans out like that.

[Thunder Snow]

I do tend to agree with OON, yes its a great forecast and one we all wish would come off. Although we can't say its a great forecast until we are end the end of dec/jan/feb and march, as no ones knows what's oing to happen.

So at the moment im going to say great work on the forecast guys, and lets hope its come off

[NorthantsSnow]

Well, whilst it's accuracy is of course yet to be determined, just like any prediction, it is a good forecast in my view.

Why? It is well explained, easy to understand and provides sufficient levels of detail including key dates and events to watch out for.

By contrast, too many forecasts I read these days are very loosely worded and paper-thin in terms of proper detail. It was refreshing to read something a bit more specific.

So when people are using positive adjectives to describe this forecast I don't think it necessarily means they are doing so because they like what they hear, more that it was a good attempt. The accuracy will of course prove itself one way or another over time, and I haven't read any comments which suggest otherwise.

For those reasons I find some of the criticisms made to be very unfair. It is a very brave thing to do putting out a bold forecast like this, especially when you have a proven track record to maintain like BFTP and RJS. It would be a bit different if it was some amateur like me putting out a forecast based on nothing more than my hopes and dreams and it was as well received as this, but actually BFTP and RJS have come up with something a bit more scientifically sound than that, so they deserve nothing but credit in my view and I await with interest the final outcome.

Good luck with your forecast BFTP & RJS. I, like many others am sure, have my fingers crossed that this one comes true!

[full_frontal_occlusion]

BFTP and RJS. Thank you for the efforts taken to put together your LRF.

You and the others who take the time to produce unorthodox LRF's and present them in such a public forum are akin to presenting a paper for peer review. That takes courage. Thank you.

Staying professional in ones approach is a laudible aim. I'm sure the authors would be the first to acknowledge that it takes a very, very long time for such prediction methodologies to become accepted as an accurate tool

That means an accuracy significantly better than chance, measured objectively over decades. One cannot rush the seasons any more than one can hold back the tide.

I wish you success in the outcome for the season ahead.

ffO.

[Met4Cast]

Sounds like a great forecast, I hope it comes off

Just out of interest, how accurate are you guys normally? I haven't really been following the forum until the last couple of weeks so I don't know what your track record is, thanks

[Coast]

Just out of interest, how accurate are you guys normally? I haven't really been following the forum until the last couple of weeks so I don't know what your track record is, thanks

You can catch up and compare all of last years winter forecasts from members here:

[johnholmes]

this link shows how they and every other lrf posted within Net Wx for winter 2009-2010 compared

http://forum.netweat...nter-forecasts/

beat me to it Coast!

Edited November 16, 2010 by johnholmes

[snowdrifter]

Many thanks guys for your hard work in producing this forecast. A while back I saw

on youtube and thought it perhaps a bit too 'out there'. After reading your forecast I wonder if what comes to pass might be somewhere in between. I'm also aware of the danger of slipping into the 'how much snow will I get' zone. Atm I'm just pleased that there are good indicators for cold/snow, and intend to let things take their course.

[Stu_London]

I'd echo some of the other recent comments in that it was an interesting forecast with explanations as to how conclusions were reached pretty well set out.

I'm more dubious about some of the science behind parts of it than other parts but am willing to keep an open mind at this stage and look for evidence to prove or disprove.

My only slight critisism is the level of detail that has been given of certain events in terms of pinning regional areas that might be prone to certain types of winter weather. As we all know from last winter, quite often things popped up at very short notice and nowcasting was the only effective method of detailing certain winter weather events. I think the further you are prepared to forecast in the future, the more vague a forecast should be (I remember one LRF that went down very well on the old BBC forums a few years ago because it forecast snow in Carlisle on Christmas day. It was neither a good forecast nor proved to be accurate, but it certainly was the most popular effort that year).

However, I do applaud the authors for the effort put into it and it will be fun monitoring how it goes.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Why am I saying this? Two reasons; 1. I do think there is a lot of self-publicity going on here, with things like one of the authors requesting his thread be pinned. If it's popular, it will stay at the top on its own.

Let's not go over the top eh?!

To pin an LRF enables it to readily accessed to objectively assess its accuracy or not as the case may be. No more no less OON. That last sentence...yep, will you too?

it isn't great...but one can hope.

BFTP

Edited November 16, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Coast]

Maybe we could put all the LRF's for this Winter in one thread and contrast and compare as the season moves on?

[A.J]

'This is a rubbish forecast, as it simply doesn't show what I want it to show, I want it mild, so anything else in a forecast bar that is absolute tosh if you ask me!'....... ...Now, I hope the moderators read between the lines and see the ironic sarcasm in my words before they delete this post....Unfortunately the above kind of narrow minded quote is all too familiar not just in this thread, but more especially the model discussion thread....All credit to BFTP & RJS for providing a detailed forecast for the weeks/months to come...A lot of hard work has obviously been done, indeed a lot of knowledge has gone into the forecast, thanks chaps....but, OON has very valid points of view, too many cold rampers on this forum hang on every word of forecasts of wintry weather etc thus the numerous 'fawning' replies, and as Paul mentioned, how many 'plus' reputation points would the forecast have if it was full of atlantic zonal rain, mild temps and wind for the next 3 months??

In summary, top marks to the thread authors for forecast, and top marks to OON for having the balls to post what many think, but wouldn't dare post

[Backtrack]

I don't really see how people can criticise someone for using the term 'great'.

It has more than one meaning; I.e- It was greatly written rather than just than it's great because it forecasts cold. I used the term great myself, but even if the forecast called for a seriously mild winter like Ian Brown's last year, I would still use the term 'great' because it was greatly written.

Thanks again for taking the time to produce this forecast.

[The watcher]

Nice forecast guys....very wintry indeed.

Mine will be out this weekend, a contender for the golden snowglobe. :ph34r:

Edited November 16, 2010 by The watcher

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

To coin a phrase 'enjoy the weather whatever it is....

BFTP

Edited November 16, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Geordiesnow]

I won't say its a great forecast to read because according to some, its apparently means we only use that term because it says what we want to read so i'll say its an interesting forecast and certainly a bold prediction.

However like Ian Brown's forecast, you have to be dubious when we are basing our forecasts on quite complex science, at the end of the day, i don't believe we were in the "Modern" winter because of years of fairly mild winters and the jet stream most of the time being to the North of Scotland. Remember in some previous years, we had pressure charts showing what could easily be quite a severe event in terms of cold(Feb 2005 is a good example) so thats one of the reasons why i never believed his theory. I don't equally believe we are in a run of cold winters because the jet stream has been quite far South for a few years now and whilst i realise that Roger & BFTP are not just basing there cold winter prediction on the jet stream being further South than usual, i think sometimes we always look at too many signs what can trigger cold winters like the gulf stream shutting down because we wish for it to be a cold and snowy winter.

Basically i'm saying, surely there are as many signs that this winter could be mild? I for one hope that whilst their forecast is the dream cold snowy scenario is not based on there preference and a little bit of wishful thinking.

Edited November 16, 2010 by Geordiesnow

[The watcher]

Basically i'm saying, surely there are as many signs that this winter could be mild? I for one hope that whilst their forecast is the dream cold snowy scenario is not based on there preference and a little bit of wishful thinking.

I agree Geordiesnow, I don't see anything that rules out either mild or cold. I love snow and extreme weather but I won't let that cloud my judgement on the outcome. I don't think BFTP and RFJ have either, they are clearly seeing signals to lead them to their forecast and for that reason I don't think it's a prefered forecast. Mine will be not completely different, but different. Definitely not so extreme on the cold and snow front, but we'll reserve talk for its release.

Again, good work lads.

[Lewis]

Very nice, interesting read. I can't do my LRF now as it would have been along the same lines

thanks for the good read

lewis

[Gray-Wolf]

I think we just need sit back and wait to see how well the Guys have done with their 'understanding'.

I must also lend agreement to Oon's take on things and can't quite understand why so many chose to misinterpret what he had to say?

As for me I see us past Solar min with a Nina in the Pacific. I'm also interested to see how the 'New Arctic' interacts with the weather patterns we have become used to.

If Mr Overland's take on the Arctic Amplification is half way right then we are due some interesting 'cold plunges' over winter (and warm surges into the Arctic Basin) that we need to factor into any future predictions of how winter will pan out.

[shuggee]

Maybe we could put all the LRF's for this Winter in one thread and contrast and compare as the season moves on?

Yes we'll put all members' forecasts together in one pinned and locked thread come the start of December, and have a Members' Forecasts Comments thread for members to chat in - as in previous years

[Weather-history]

Good luck with your forecast. I have read Victorian articles on how the Moon may affect the weather but they never have really convinced me.

[Guest mycroft]

I think we just need sit back and wait to see how well the Guys have done with their 'understanding'.

I must also lend agreement to Oon's take on things and can't quite understand why so many chose to misinterpret what he had to say?

As for me I see us past Solar min with a Nina in the Pacific. I'm also interested to see how the 'New Arctic' interacts with the weather patterns we have become used to.

If Mr Overland's take on the Arctic Amplification is half way right then we are due some interesting 'cold plunges' over winter (and warm surges into the Arctic Basin) that we need to factor into any future predictions of how winter will pan out.

Could you elaborate as to this "New Arctic" and the weather patterns we have become used to???

Edited November 16, 2010 by mycroft

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I contribute to this place, as do you....both in our own special ways.

Hopefully as do we all. To echo your point, it is a forecast, it will be wrong, it may be closer than some, but it will be wrong, perhaps by weeks, perhaps totally. Also we have quite a potential clash with GP saying a mild January via teleconnections and RJS/BFTP saying very cold.

Enjoy the weather whatever we get

[Bristawl Si]

Thanks to BFTP and Roger for the forecast.

It's always interesting to compare the different methodologies used in LRFs - be interesting to see who's are correct when Winter 10/11 is over.

I, for one, valued Roger's updates last winter and the year before, in the days leading up to the main snow events of the last couple of winters.

As for their forecast for this winter i'm all for a cold, snowy one usually - but my enthusiasm is tempered somewhat this year as my company has recently shifted 'home' from North BTL (10 minutes walk from my home) to Central Bristol - a 40 minute bus ride or 10 minute train journey away! Too much snow disruption to the travel network this winter will now disrupt me!

[gottolovethisweather]

Also we have quite a potential clash with GP saying a mild January via teleconnections and RJS/BFTP saying very cold.

Enjoy the weather whatever we get

Indeed, it'll be a clash of the Titans of Netweather.

You guys are good and somebody's forecast will be bang on in the end. IMO whoever gets over 50% of the ingredients correct should, I believe, be deemed the winner! Not forgetting the MetO have given up on LRF's so they don't even trust their supercomputers. Afterall, the climate changes constantly from one day to the next and can make fools of the pros too, it's nature's way.

Time will tell when and how winter will unfold but I prefer the discussions of NW members to that of any tabloid crap or so called news. I do however, believe the weather could soon be creating its own news once again, some time soon!

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited November 16, 2010 by gottolovethisweather