Rjs And Bftp Winter 2010/11 Lrf

[Cal]

Good luck with it RJS & BFTP. Sounds a tad chilly that one .

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Well done Chaps. Well worth getting up early for !!!

[camperstron]

A very interesting read! Thank you!

[Evening thunder]

Thank you and well done for the effort into making this forecast, I hope something like this happes, however I do hope that it is not completely right as I see the dreaded phrases such as

'The southwest may escape this phase of the cold to some extent and see chilly rainfalls at least near sea level'

Edited November 16, 2010 by StormMad26

[SteveB]

That sounds like a proper Winter, & like the one we used to get.

Hope it comes of like you predict.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well done RJS and BFTP.

As ever, some great detail in there, indicating specific periods to look out for. Note the dates down guys and see what happens.

November will be heading for a below average CET at this rate too, will it not?

21st November looks set to be the first key date with an upcoming full moon.

I like the scientific method of these forecasts, that way, they stand out from the others and were well predicted last winter too.

Best of Luck Roger and Fred.

gottolovethisweather

Edited November 16, 2010 by gottolovethisweather

[Dublin Novice]

Thank you both RJS and BFTP for your insight and very informative forecast. For some of us it truly "opens the latch" on the door into Christmas and Winter itself!

Well done indeed - now for the hard bit............the waiting game, the rollercoaster rides, fingernails bitten to the quick, "ramp" signs being erected on forum replies.........all part of what makes this Netweather forum site so interesting.

Good luck and steady as she goes!

Incidentally, some serious cold pooling now appearing over NE Europe and Scandanavia.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

[Jayces]

Yes per-lease!

Great read BFTP & Roger, let's hope you are right again!

I haven't seen past LRF's by them, how reliable are they based on past LRF's they have done?

It's exciting to read and what everyone wants to hear.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

May I also offer my thanks guys, a lot of work goes into your forecasting methods that I won't even pretend to understand, even if we get a winter in between your forecast and GP's then it could be another interesting one!

We had lying snow from the week before christmas right through until the end of January - Iooks like we could be in for something similar again then going by your forecast!!

The wife won't be happy - but the children will:drinks:

[Radiating Dendrite]

Wow..............have you two been smoking something again?

Seriously, great forecast guys and I hope it happens!

If it is half as good as what you expect then it will be memorable.

Thanks for the hard work and your continued great contributions to this forum!!

[azores92]

It's sure going to be interesting seeing how the first half of january pans out, seeing if you or GP are closer to the mark(a mid latitude high or continuation of the snowy cold weather), or something completely different perhaps? Once again though, snow lovers will adore that forecast

[artfularshavin]

i do see it as a good forecast a bit dramatic but all in all its how i se things this winter! i cant stress how cold it may get this winter.. it could well be that we end up with a winter like europe had last year,i.e sustained cold 10-14 day severe spells where temps are like -2 /-4 in daytime and minus 10-15 c!overnight even when we dont get these spells,thigs will be cold at the least,more like 2-5c. my analaysis has given me that the coldest parts will be. from around the 10th DEC,to all the way too early january when things will be bitterly cold! we will hav joined in with europe,a brief less cold spell january midmonth.then watch out for february,i belive will be exceptionally cold! almost extreme..yes i know!! wowww

on that basis and just ideas and developments of what i can see coming.i have figures like these...

DEC-2.5 C

JAN-2.8 C

FEB-1.5 C BRRR!!!

[Backtrack]

Brilliant forecast, had the draft copy e-mailed to me early. I hope it's as accurate as last years.

Good job!

[BARRY]

A nice balanced view with no drama queen set ups, Keep up the good work it sounds about right for my neck of the woods, Mostly rain

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A nice balanced view with no drama queen set ups, Keep up the good work it sounds about right for my neck of the woods, Mostly rain

To be honest I believe you are going to get snow. Sometimes there is a boundary and further SW one is then the boundary becomes more real so its covering that angle.

re NW flows mentioned, well what I see as an example is LPs dropping down from E of greenland as per the ECM 00Z. The block is in place but further west and the western flank of the LP covers the UK/Ireland in a NW'ly flow but the air is of arctic origin so snow is very likely from a NW'ly wind direction. It then becomes a NE'ly again. A general pattern one may see recurring.

Trust me, we have tried not to be extreme here....

BFTP

Edited November 16, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[WhiteXmas]

Thanks for this detailed insight into the forthcoming winter you two . It truly is an exciting prospect. Whilst I agree with your forecast many members should remember that even the slightest factor changes can make a big difference in winter therefore try not to see this as set in stone.

It could however be even more severe than what they are forecasting but this is the excitement of winter; we'll just have to wait and see! The general theme that I would gather from this winter will be that it will be more severe than last year.

Once again thank you for the time taken to produce these predictions.

[artfularshavin]

oh really whitxmas? so how bad do you think this winter will be in terms of cold?

[Tom Quintavalle]

Well done, Roger and Fred, tremendous amount of work put in there, with a lot of detail. So hope your LRF is correct.

I have to say, I'm very concerned about the strengthening La Nina this winter (mind you I said the same about El Nino last year!), with a strong northern arm to the jet and the polar vortex setting up close to Greenland, blocking to our NW, N, NE could be very hard to come by. Dare I say it, we might well have to make do with "faux cold" scenarios, courtesy of mid-latitude highs that wander across us this winter.

Anyway, I wasnt christened Thomas for nothing, doubtings' my game!

Well done again and please be right. I'll buy you both a snowball!

Regards,

Tom.

[artfularshavin]

ok then thomas..so your not very confident about this winter? how do you think temperatures will come in? also the weather is acting quite strange i feel.moscow is actually quite mild.whilst oslo is freezing cold! very strange

Edited November 16, 2010 by artfularshavin

[Fozfoster]

Well ithink its all been said. Well done guys,now lets see what happens.

[artfularshavin]

Well ithink its all been said. Well done guys,now lets see what happens.

i read on another site,that possibly come end of nov early dec we could be experiencing FRIGID TEMPERATURES!!

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi art,

I'm always very pessimistic when it comes to snow but my views changed somewhat re. getting the right synoptics for snow during Feb.2005, when we saw a lot of northern blocking in the 2nd half of the month and my area saw snow falling (albeit mostly in flurry form) for 13 consecutive days.

Regarding this winter, I dont think it will be as cold as the last 2 and will come in at around average to slightly above with any cold spells mostly attributable to cold inversion highs, with not a great deal of snow about due to the reasons stated in my post above.

That's just my opinion but I'll admit I certainly hav'nt put as much work and thought into that opinion as Roger and Fred have into their LRF and I sincerely hope they're correct!

Regards,

Tom.

[WhiteXmas]

oh really whitxmas? so how bad do you think this winter will be in terms of cold?

It is still too far out to know with any accuracy really artful. I would imagine however that we will have numerous sub zero days and these could be consecutive and sustained. If there is early snowfall this will greatly enhance the likelihood of this happening.

Well done, Roger and Fred, tremendous amount of work put in there, with a lot of detail. So hope your LRF is correct.

I have to say, I'm very concerned about the strengthening La Nina this winter (mind you I said the same about El Nino last year!), with a strong northern arm to the jet and the polar vortex setting up close to Greenland, blocking to our NW, N, NE could be very hard to come by. Dare I say it, we might well have to make do with "faux cold" scenarios, courtesy of mid-latitude highs that wander across us this winter.

Anyway, I wasnt christened Thomas for nothing, doubtings' my game!

Well done again and please be right. I'll buy you both a snowball!

Regards,

Tom.

If that was to happen I think I would be saying for faux sake! :lol:

Edited November 16, 2010 by WhiteXmas

[Fozfoster]

i read on another site,that possibly come end of nov early dec we could be experiencing FRIGID TEMPERATURES!!

Going by some of the more knowledgeable on here you could be right.

Edited November 16, 2010 by fozfoster

[Heisenberg]

i read on another site,that possibly come end of nov early dec we could be experiencing FRIGID TEMPERATURES!!

Thanks for the LRF boys. So want this to happen

What do you mean by FRIGID temps though?