Rjs And Bftp Winter 2010/11 Lrf

[Gavin P]

Good effort guys.

I think the two things that have done you in are;

1. It got so severe in December. When you have such a depth of cold at the start of winter, the only place to go is milder. You look at many of the severe Decembers from the past and they nearly all end up swinging back to much milder in January and February. I think Joe B'astardi described it as being a bit like an elastic band being streched as for as it can go and then pinging back the other way.

2. The moderate La Nina has ultimately been the main driver globally. Overall you were right to look at for blocking, especially over Scandinavia. But in the end the La Nina just proved too dominant in the later half of winter to allow that blocking to get a look in for our little corner of the north-east Atlantic.

Nevertheless, well done for having a go and getting many of the signals broadly correct, if not the overall outcome. As we look ahead to next winter lets hope we don't get a "double dip" La Nina as that will spell trouble for our winter prospects again. Hopefully we'll have a weak La Nina continuing to fade or even trend towards a slight El Nino.

Edited February 18, 2011 by Gavin P

[If Wishes made Weather]

I'll go with that. It was a good shout in terms of an LRF. The signals were broadly correct and it does seem that the La Nina was what scuppered things a little. In any event an LRF is about indicating the predominant patterns, not micro-forcasting, and like it or not, this little island is a just that when looked at globally. I understand some of the very early predictions for next winter are showing some very low temp anomolys.

Good effort guys.

I think the two things that have done you in are;

1. It got so severe in December. When you have such a depth of cold at the start of winter, the only place to go is milder. You look at many of the severe Decembers from the past and they nearly all end up swinging back to much milder in January and February. I think Joe B'astardi described it as being a bit like an elastic band being streched as for as it can go and then pinging back the other way.

2. The moderate La Nina has ultimately been the main driver globally. Overall you were right to look at for blocking, especially over Scandinavia. But in the end the La Nina just proved too dominant in the later half of winter to allow that blocking to get a look in for our little corner of the north-east Atlantic.

Nevertheless, well done for having a go and getting many of the signals broadly correct, if not the overall outcome. As we look ahead to next winter lets hope we don't get a "double dip" La Nina as that will spell trouble for our winter prospects again. Hopefully we'll have a weak La Nina continuing to fade or even trend towards a slight El Nino.

[mountain shadow]

This forecast has simply become worse the further we have travelled from the forecast date, it would be wrong to say otherwise.

The December forecast was good, but the signs were already there for a cold start to the winter in the models and from the Met Office when the forecast was made.

Clearly there are terrestial signals which can over ride extra-terrestial ones and these need to factored into future forecasts.

I personally appreciate the hard work that has gone into the forecast and hopefully we will get another attempt next winter.

[cheeky_monkey]

Just my take quickly...RJS assessment of the north american winter was even better if anybody read that one? Not sure if the two were linked in anyway? or being very accurate this side of the pond threw things off on your side?

[chionomaniac]

I think that this forecast has become more derailed as winter has progressed. However it is still extremely difficult to make any long range forecast and as ever if the Siberian block had traversed westwards then we could be looking at a completely different story. With this type of forecasting it is always interesting to hear the forecasters views in the debriefing. Though I do think when relying on lunar forecasting it is always difficult to say that the moon didn't quite make it to the position we thought it would! Lunar events are probably significant, but only in as much that they may become overridden by other factors in much the same way as stratospheric events and El Nino events can. The difficulty, as always, is marrying all these events up into one accurate forecast.

Good luck guys for next year.

c

[yamkin]

The only thing I've tried to do on the model thread is pick up on specific developments and if it came off or was heading that way I would always add onto a post as per LRF...as this is what stands. Nothing ever overrode the LRF. My Feb update...nothing in the model thread has altered one iota from that...but it could well be wrong. At the end of the day Piers, what comes to stand up to scrutiny is the LRF....nothing else and that is what we are here for?

Sorry if it got your goat, but one thing I have learned is that it isn't worth doing this. And this isn't meant at all as a direct response to you but it is as a general feeling but the bitterness on this site this winter has been woeful...and it just ain't worth it mate....oh OK, well apart from your comments sometimes

It seems odd how posts I made saying that Jan didn't come out as I called it are easily and clearly forgotten. Perceptions? B)

Anyway, I will hang around to see the smacked backside this LRF deserves...

kind regards

Fred

BFTP & RJS, Your LRF has been great. If there were no ups and downs, I would be sceptical. I and many others will look forward to more LRF's. By the way, here's a LRF by Exacta Weather for 2011/2012 http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/68787-exacta-weather/page__view__findpost__p__2052405

[stewfox]

FEBRUARY - 2.0C

A second wave of arctic cold and blocking highs is considered quite likely for February, and the mild spell will probably fade out with some mixed precip storms as retrograde motion sees a Scandinavian high pressure reasserts itself which will link across to Greenland. As the month progresses HP retrogrades to Greenland and southern Scandinavia will be subject to troughing. We could foresee some very cold weather in February as a result of the renewed blocking as the strong initial easterly flow becomes a north and then NE'ly. We're speculating that a very low CET value could be observed in February, perhaps the lowest in recent years (we'll say 2.0 as a conservative estimate but would not be surprised by something quite lower) as to our east will be in the grips of a severe winter. We'll issue some more detailed predictions on snowfall dates in the second half of the winter if the pattern seems to be on course but a generally unstable airflow from over the North Sea is anticipated so periods of heavy snow likely.

RJS and BFTP

We are hopeful

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Any stats for places like Poland and even Germany. Did they have a colder the average February ?

There was alot of cold air to our East and North East (How did Southern Sweden come out , temp wise ? below average). My collegue in Berlin had a lot of 0c days in Feb

It would have been intersting to see the CET had we shifted that cold 500 miles West

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Overview to come soon. Am in proceeds of busy time at work and also consulting with RJS. Although Feb had the ingredients to our NE in Febit didn't come off for the UK. I personally underestimated the influence of La Nina I suspect.

BFTP