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Paul Sherman

Better Than The Models ?

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Or just plain Luck ??

Been following the thread attached below on Ukww and would like some of your comments on here as to how this guy/girl came to this prediction, please read all 7 pages of the thread as there are some interesting comments and replies. Amazing to think this was predicted exactly 1 month prior to the event, might even give BFTP A run for his money Mwahaha.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=39682&posts=133 - 1st Post 28/10/10

Btw found the original post from the 12th October on another forum, the Ukww was posted on the 28th but they amount to the same thing.

http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&t=468933&d=11269.29108&nmt - 1st Post 12/10/10

Pretty amazing stuff eh ??

Discuss

Paul S

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Or just plain Luck ??

Been following the thread attached below on Ukww and would like some of your comments on here as to how this guy/girl came to this prediction, please read all 7 pages of the thread as there are some interesting comments and replies. Amazing to think this was predicted exactly 1 month prior to the event, might even give BFTP A run for his money Mwahaha.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=39682&posts=133 - 1st Post 28/10/10

Btw found the original post from the 12th October on another forum, the Ukww was posted on the 28th but they amount to the same thing.

http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&t=468933&d=11269.29108&nmt - 1st Post 12/10/10

Pretty amazing stuff eh ??

Discuss

Paul S

Hi Paul

Yep not bad....I like to think though my call for the unusual track of the 1st LP was better???? :lol:

BFTP

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Or just plain Luck ??

I'm going to take a punt on complete luck. He missed Monday's storm, which I think had a deeper low and the call was for today not yesterday when the bulk of the adverse weather has passed through, although I'll give them that the low is still lurking. I guess another chart analyser who got lucky, lets see if they can do it every month based on the 'DNA technique'.

I think the argument has been made in several posts, if this was an accurate system, how can it be that science hasn't found it yet - the data has been there for years! Am I a terrible sceptic? - probably.......

More to the point, there are so many more great threads and articles on Pistonheads to be viewing!!! http://www.pistonheads.com

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I'm going to take a punt on complete luck. He missed Monday's storm, which I think had a deeper low and the call was for today not yesterday when the bulk of the adverse weather has passed through, although I'll give them that the low is still lurking. I guess another chart analyser who got lucky, lets see if they can do it every month based on the 'DNA technique'.

I think the argument has been made in several posts, if this was an accurate system, how can it be that science hasn't found it yet - the data has been there for years! Am I a terrible sceptic? - probably.......

More to the point, there are so many more great threads and articles on Pistonheads to be viewing!!! http://www.pistonheads.com

I thought today/yesterdays low was deeper than the Monday storm? Didn't the current one drop as low as 957?

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Robin

Well we will know in a few weeks as he/she has taken up the offer to predict Xmas Day by the 20th November so we will see how that goes. Think the prediction also entails Pressure in 5 UK Cities as well.

Paul S

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I thought today/yesterdays low was deeper than the Monday storm? Didn't the current one drop as low as 957?

Not checked so good call! (still say its a guess! :unsure: )

Well we will know in a few weeks as he/she has taken up the offer to predict Xmas Day by the 20th November so we will see how that goes.

:clap: I am very interested and if they can prove the theory and how it transpires to a forecast, then I'll be the first to congratulate them.

I am a terrible sceptic on a lot of things like this though, I think its too many years of watching Uri Geller, David Icke and Paul McKenna!! :ph34r: :lol:

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Very interesting thread that (UKWW). Skeptical as i am his results were quite stunningly accurate but with only one successful forecast under his belt has a lot more to prove until credibility can be reached . I think i read/heard of a system/model designed to forecast economic stability/instability and reference was made to weather forecasting:cc_confused: i wonder if this is what he has been working on and incorporated some of the findings to his way of determining future weather conditions.

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Good luck to him, a good call on his first prediction, as others have said, an open mind is needed, let's see if he can consistently come up with the goods.

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Well not a full forecast yet but some hints at what he/she is expecting on Xmas Day and quite frankly I am amazed at the prediction, and if this one comes off we really must sit up and take notice.

Pressure of 1040-1046 across the West Country - That in itself Is quite a rare beast :good:

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Well not a full forecast yet but some hints at what he/she is expecting on Xmas Day and quite frankly I am amazed at the prediction, and if this one comes off we really must sit up and take notice.

Pressure of 1040-1046 across the West Country - That in itself Is quite a rare beast :good:

Yes, its good to see he isn't afraid to put himself out there and really put his theory to the test. He seems genuinely interested in whether it will work out or not and in my opinion its a very welcome and fresh perspective to see. By making a prediction of such a rare occurrence means there can't be any ifs, buts of maybes as often is the case when forecasters give out vague thoughts or percentages of chance. Genuinely excited by the prospects on offer but still a long way to go as it stands. As many have already noted, one correct forecast could be purely down to luck, although it seems unlikely given what happened, but it could be that his methods are only useful as a general guide and he was just fortunate at how accurately this particular forecast turned out...

Anyway, very interested in how this develops and would appreciate if someone would keep this thread updated in the coming months as I don't visit the forums he uses.

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Yes certainly a good result on his first prediction.

It seems like a form of pattern matching but god knows how he manages to get hold of sypnotics for way back--i believe he said that his prediction had the same dna,as he put it,as a day 100 years ago!

Impressive first call thats for sure but was it pure luck?, More evidence needed before we can take him seriously i think.

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Interesting read, made more interesting since he's actually forecast Christmas day - he was prevaricating a bit too much for me, prior to that.

He keeps saying he needs more historical info to complete more requested forecasts, if you fancy throwing down the gauntlet a bit more Paul, you could offer him this site - it has lots of historical info but no pressure charts.

http://www.booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/histclimat.htm

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Yes very interesting, can he join NW please! invite him over..

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Interesting stuff and good luck to the person involved but one old saying comes to mind.

One swallow doesn't make a summer.

Predicting deep low pressure in mid November or a slightly displaced barty at Christmas in what is generally a mild country is hardly rocket science.

This system needs to be able predict an out of the normal extreme event ie extreme severe winter weather or extreme hot summer weather in an extended time frame to prove that is the equal or better than other forms of long range forecasting.

Most present day long range forecasting systems as the Meto have discovered to their cost will work fairly well in this country provided they only have to forecast something relatively close to the mean. Yet the whole point of long range forecasting being of any use is to be able to predict the unexpected OR unusual. ie last years coldest winter for thirty years scenario.

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And here is that Forecast for Xmas day some 42 days beforehand :whistling:

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=39976&posts=11

If you click that thread you will see how many times London has fallen into that 1040mb and above, Interestingly never out of the Months of December, January and February.

Think this guys system relies heavily on Statistics and Pattern Matching tbh

Paul S

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I'm more inclined to think he is into astro-meteorology...

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Paul

The Christmas day forecast is not too off the mark for what I would forecast at this point.

I believe that we are about to enter a period of high latitude blocking which will last until mid December before dropping and forming a mid latitude block from this point onwards until the end of the year.

So my guess for Christmas day is a pressure around 1025 mb with a frosty morning and temps around 7ºC during the day (for Chippenham!)

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And here is that Forecast for Xmas day some 42 days beforehand :whistling:

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=39976&posts=11

If you click that thread you will see how many times London has fallen into that 1040mb and above, Interestingly never out of the Months of December, January and February.

Think this guys system relies heavily on Statistics and Pattern Matching tbh

Paul S

Whatever method it shows similar to RJS and me but I'll add some more into it. Full moon on 21st is a peak energy period so a deep depression will affect the UK/Ireland followed quickly by HP building in behind. The track will determine temp but before 21st we'll have been in aprolonged cold set up. Is this peak energy period a synoptic changer? That is the question but I think not. Christmas, cold calm and crisp.

BFTP

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And here is that Forecast for Xmas day some 42 days beforehand :whistling:

http://www.ukweather...=39976&posts=11

If you click that thread you will see how many times London has fallen into that 1040mb and above, Interestingly never out of the Months of December, January and February.

Think this guys system relies heavily on Statistics and Pattern Matching tbh

Paul S

Paul, does it matter how he achieves his forecast? I'll measure him on his results. If he can pull this one off, I'll start to pay more attention. Fair play to him for sticking his head above the parapet.

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I really do like to hype the weather at times when something major looks to be coming,as it`s my passion.

The last 2 storms were so very different,it`s just the different tracking,but they were both very deep storms for november

And 1 person was killed from a falling tree which was a non leaved tree.

Around 45 folk were killed during the burns day storm 1990 daytime storm,this novembers was an evening storm.

Still it was 945mbs close to Ireland.

This needs to go into the hype thread.

If one of the mods could put this into the hype thread it would be much apprentiated.

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Interesting read Paul.

I'd like to know what method he's using. As is rightly said over there, we've seen these things said before. Certainly confident enough to offer up forecasts and possibly has one verification. Case of wait and see.

Anyway. Back to my tarot cards and joint pain studies for the winter forecast*. It should be a good one this year as I'm using tea leaves too.

*which I have the right to modify at any point should it look like going pear shaped.

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There is one glaring problem when dealing with alternative forecasts method without control, access to the whole range of conventionnal methods so how can the veracity of the alternative method can be verified? Up to what point that alternative method plays a part as opposed to good knowledge of orthodox methodology?

Short of locking up in a room those people, with only their chosen alternative method to forecast, no one can be sure...

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Very interesting read Paul, thanks.

Looks like his colours being firmly nailed to the mast there. Fair play to him for sticking his neck out and painting a fairly confidently clear picture of how things will pan out at this range with very little vagueness!

Of course the proof is in the pudding and we will soon be able to follow and see how this pans out with Xmas day charts soon appearing on the GFS....i for one will be watching avidly.

Paul, is'nt pattern matching slightly dubious game to play when considering many other influencing external factors (teleconnections, solar cycles etc) would need to factored in. Unless, like he seems to be suggesting, that EVERYTHING moves in a rhythmic cycle!

Definitely one to watch.

PS BFTP where can i find yours and RJS winter forecast please

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Really interesting reading and one to keep an eye on..... I've given up on that bloke who used to get visited by the dead :D

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