Stratosphere Temperature Watch

[summer blizzard]

Perhaps we should archive this thread and create a new one for this year?

[chionomaniac]

Perhaps we should archive this thread and create a new one for this year?

I normally start a new thread on the first of November.

The Berlin site is already up and running this year :-

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php?alert=1&lng=eng

and also note this excellent retrospective analysis ECM site

http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/index.html

some brilliant animations available there.

[sebastiaan1973]

I tend not to look at the stratospheric temperature directly over the north Pole as I do not think that this gives a true accurate picture. I prefer to look at the average temperature from 60 degrees north as I feel that this gives a clearer picture. As one can see from the following link the average stratospheric Arctic temperature is rapidly cooling in line with what is expected.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc..._2011_merra.pdf

Of note is that Nasa have upgraded their modeling of this data so it will be interesting to see whether this is responsible for any variance this winter.

What are your expectations? This year there is probably a (weak) negative QBO and a weak or moderate La Nina. My guess is the stratosphere is cooler than normal?

[chionomaniac]

What are your expectations? This year there is probably a (weak) negative QBO and a weak or moderate La Nina. My guess is the stratosphere is cooler than normal?

Distinctly average. I will be watching how the Brewer Dobson Circulation is affected by the increasing solar flux during the easterly QBO. If we can achieve good ozone transport from the tropics during November then my expectations will increase.

[sebastiaan1973]

Well Chionomaniac, last month recorded 123.01 (solar flux), the highest score since november 2003. ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/monthly_averages/solflux_monthly_average.txt

[summer blizzard]

Well Chionomaniac, last month recorded 123.01 (solar flux), the highest score since november 2003. ftp://ftp.geolab.nrc...hly_average.txt

Quite normal considering that we are 1-3 years away from solar maxima.

[sebastiaan1973]

Well If I understand Chionomaniacs view the increasing number of solar flux is a good development for the winter lover

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data reveals september had a QBO of -2.3

[Radiating Dendrite]

http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data reveals september had a QBO of -2.3

What's the significance of this??

Edited October 6, 2011 by Radiating Dendrite

[sebastiaan1973]

Distinctly average. I will be watching how the Brewer Dobson Circulation is affected by the increasing solar flux during the easterly QBO. If we can achieve good ozone transport from the tropics during November then my expectations will increase.

An increasing transport of ozon from the tropics

[chionomaniac]

For me, the way the QBO works is less obvious than negative =good and positive = bad for those hoping for cold weather. I think it could have been you Sebastiaan that put a link in the winter thread from HM on americanwx. I agree with these thoughts about the complexity of the QBO and that we need to look at the overall state of the stratospheric QBO to get a better understanding. It is not just the ozone transport that we need to consider here. We actually need to look at how the stratospheric mean zonal tropical winds can transfer to the polar stratosphere and polar troposphere.

This can be illustrated by looking at a graphic on Mark Baldwin's homepage.

http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/

This shows 40 years worth of filtered QBO analysis. Look at how the negative/ positive anomalies interact with the troposphere around the poles. There is a pattern but it looks difficult to predict and in some years the positive or negative anomalies hardly affect the polar tropospheres whereas in others the affect is a lot greater. Certainly not easy to predict.

Edited October 6, 2011 by chionomaniac

[knocker]

One of authors of this paper, Markus Rex, was discussing it on the world service earlier. I listened carefully but obviously, my memory being what it is, can only remember a few salient points. One was, although obviously not as large as the Antarctic, that it had a much greater propensity to move around, even as far as southern Europe. Basically it's down to CFCs remaining for many years in the stratosphere and the cooling of latter that has been ongoing for a number of years.

Chemical ozone destruction occurs over both polar regions in local winter–spring. In the Antarctic, essentially complete removal of lower-stratospheric ozone currently results in an ozone hole every year, whereas in the Arctic, ozone loss is highly variable and has until now been much more limited. Here we demonstrate that chemical ozone destruction over the Arctic in early 2011 was—for the first time in the observational record—comparable to that in the Antarctic ozone hole. Unusually long-lasting cold conditions in the Arctic lower stratosphere led to persistent enhancement in ozone-destroying forms of chlorine and to unprecedented ozone loss, which exceeded 80 per cent over 18–20 kilometres altitude. Our results show that Arctic ozone holes are possible even with temperatures much milder than those in the Antarctic. We cannot at present predict when such severe Arctic ozone depletion may be matched or exceeded.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature10556.html

[chionomaniac]

Ozone forecasts just showing tentave signs of a slight increase in ozone levels. Here is T+120:

I will be keeping a close eye on this over the coming weeks as this is the timeframe that the BDC will be increasing.

New Stratosphere watch thread starts November!

Edited October 14, 2011 by chionomaniac

[sebastiaan1973]

chionomaniac do you have an update of the Ozon levels?

[knocker]

This any good?

[cooling climate]

http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/

This shows 40 years worth of filtered QBO analysis. Look at how the negative/ positive anomalies interact with the troposphere around the poles. There is a pattern but it looks difficult to predict and in some years the positive or negative anomalies hardly affect the polar tropospheres whereas in others the affect is a lot greater. Certainly not easy to predict.

Do you not mean the equator as the graphic does not show the poles only the equator.

I agree with what you say, I wish it was that simple though.

[chionomaniac]

Do you not mean the equator as the graphic does not show the poles only the equator.

I agree with what you say, I wish it was that simple though.

Yes - that graphic only goes up to 30 degrees south or north apologies for misleading over that.

Back to the ozone levels I have re-checked and can see no great amounts of ozone building or forecast in the polar stratosphere as of yet.

In fact I see good reason to believe that the more blocked pattern being experienced and forecast presently may be down to reduced mean zonal mean winds experienced in the stratosphere recently.

u60n_30_2011_merra.pdf

If one looks at the graph above there appears to be a sharp rise recently and this is set to continue when looking at both the ECM and GFS stratospheric forecasts. These suggest an increase in mean zonal mean winds in the stratosphere and these are bound to transfer through to the troposphere during November.

So things will need to be monitored but my guess is that we are likely to see more blocked conditions throughout the rest of this month ( but with no major freeze) followed by an increasing zonal pattern during November. The stratospheric output will need to be monitored over the coming month, however, if the increase in upper mean zonal winds continues unabated, then those hoping for a repeat of last years November freeze may be sorely disappointed.

[knocker]

Probably of no particular interest but I have been looking at the total ozone for today going to 2007. Not quite sure why exactly. Certainly a difference between today and 2007.

Edited October 20, 2011 by weather ship

[chionomaniac]

Probably of no particular interest but I have been looking at the total ozone for today going to 2007. Not quite sure why exactly. Certainly a difference between today and 2007.

Comparing the above images, the most striking feature is the low ozone content above the pole this year. This could lead to a cooler core and strong vortex developing as I have suggested above.

Edited October 20, 2011 by chionomaniac

[knocker]

Thanks for confirmation of that, I was wondering, but not that confident I'm anywhere near on top of this subject.

[jethro]

Came across this article about a hole in the Arctic Ozone Layer, thought some of you may find it interesting:

http://www.livescience.com/16337-arctic-ozone-hole.html

[chionomaniac]

Closing this thread now.

New thread here:

If someone could archive and save this thread and possibly pin the new thread I would be very grateful.