Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Recommended Posts

The hyperactive 2010 season continues! Recon data and satellite imagery have confirmed that invest 91L located near 10N 55W has become Tropical Storm Tomas. The formation of Tomas this far south and east at this time of year is unheard of. Near record breaking sea temps and abundant moisture have certainly played a factor in Tomas' unusual formation.

Tomas is close to the north coast of Venezuela and this could hinder development at first. If Tomas jogs to the north, this shouldn't be a problem. Tomas looks likely to enter the eastern Caribbean, but just where the storm goes after that is uncertain. There is a risk that Tomas could be pulled northwards to go on and hit Haiti, but this is uncertain at present as it is very early days.

What is certain is that waters are very warm in the region and could easily support a hurricane. Several of the models are forecasting Tomas to become a hurricane, but as always this is dependant on shear which is notoriously difficult to predict. Currently, shear is quite high to the northwest of Tomas but is showing signs of easing. We shall see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recon data suggesting Tomas may well be stronger than 35kts, we will see what NHC goes with in the first advisory. Looks very impressive on satellite, with spiral banding evident:

post-1820-083853400 1288383455_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like they've gone for 40mph (odd but no forecast discussion yet so no reason given). Forecast to become a Cat 3 within 4 days, unusual for November.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 292036

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010

500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE

WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.1N 57.5W

ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS

ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR

BARBADOS...AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING FOR

MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND GRENADA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR

DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT AND THE

GRENADINES...GRENADA...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...

* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN

24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. TOMAS IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS

THROUGH THE CENTRAL WINDWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND

TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8

INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD

ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING

WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY

LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yup, NHC being quite aggressive with the intensity forecast. There is a lot of moisture in the Caribbean, and with very warm waters, a major is of course not out of the question. NHC obviously expecting shear to be low.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

000

WTNT41 KNHC 300003

TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010

800 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF TOMAS...THE AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61

KT AND SFMR MEASUREMENTS AROUND 50 KT. THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED

FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND A SPECIAL

ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH

THE FIRST 48 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN

ACCORDANCE WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA.

BUOY 41101 IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS OF 13 FT WELL NORTH OF THE

CENTER...REQUIRING AN EXPANSION OF THE 12-FT SEAS RADII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0000Z 11.6N 57.6W 50 KT

12HR VT 30/0600Z 12.0N 59.5W 55 KT

24HR VT 30/1800Z 12.9N 61.8W 60 KT

36HR VT 31/0600Z 13.5N 64.0W 70 KT

48HR VT 31/1800Z 14.1N 66.2W 80 KT

72HR VT 01/1800Z 14.8N 70.4W 90 KT

96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.2N 74.0W 100 KT

120HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 76.0W 100 KT

$$

FORECASTER BERG/BROWN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tomas has continued to strengthen overnight and is now a 60kt tropical storm. Tomas should become a hurricane later today, and an eyewall appears to be forming within the central dense overcast. Tomas is delivering strong winds and heavy rains to Barbados, and is likely to be a hurricane by the time the storm approaches the Northern Windward Islands. As Tomas tracks generally westwards through the Caribbean, it should continue to intensify over warm waters. The main factor as I said before governing the intensity of the system will be shear which is expected to be in the low, and if not, moderate range through the next 5 days. This suggests continued intensification, which may be rapid over the next 24 hours as according to the NHC the SHIPS model is indicating a 60% chance of a 25kt increase in intensity in this time period.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ive been fascinated by this system from the moment it was first designated as 91L at such an unusually low latitude.

I suspect Tomas will experience some very rapid deepening as soon as it develops as decent inner core, and the eye begins to emerge.

IMO, the NHC really let their guard down with this one.

24hours ago it was still being downplayed as a tropical wave, with only slow development expected. Today we may see a hurricane bearing down on the Islands.

This was certainly a tropical cyclone well before yesterday's recon arrived.

Perhaps it was initially assumed land interaction with South America would inhabit development for a few days.

Hopefully it doesn't end up bringing yet more devastation and misery to the people of Haiti.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reports and first images from Barbados: Latest reports from Barbados

Observers in Barbados believe Tomas is already Cat1 hurricane, with roofs blowing off houses, trees coming down, widespread power outages.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We now have Hurricane Tomas, the 12th of the season, now tying 2010 with 1969 for the 2nd most hurricanes ever recorded in a season.

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN

HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010

1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TWELFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON BEARING DOWN ON ST. LUCIA

AND ST. VINCENT...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.3N 60.7W

ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF ST. LUCIA

ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF ST. VINCENT

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING

WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

* ST. LUCIA

* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BARBADOS

* DOMINICA

* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

* GRENADA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN

THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST. TOMAS IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF

TOMAS WILL PASS NEAR ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY TONIGHT.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...

120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A NOW CATEGORY ONE

HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING

IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO

175 MILES...280 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH...

85 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON ST. LUCIA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON ST. LUCIA...AND

WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGHOUT THE

DAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING

AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8

INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD

ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY

AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF

ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND

POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Special Advisory has just been issued, Tomas is up to 90mph (982mbar pressure) based on reports from St Lucia.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 302201

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE TOMAS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010

600 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...OBSERVATIONS FROM ST. LUCIA INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS

STRENGTHENED...

SUMMARY OF 600 PM AST...2200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.5N 61.6W

ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA

ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

* ST. LUCIA

* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* DOMINICA

* TOBAGO

* GRENADA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN

THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 600 PM AST...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION

IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE

CENTER OF TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM ST. LUCIA AND ST.

VINCENT THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST.

LUCIA. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175

MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON ST. LUCIA AND ARE ALSO

LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING

AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS

TOMAS MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ON THE OTHER ISLANDS WITHIN THE

TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8

INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD

ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY

AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF

ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND

POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The last full advisory indicated that 65kts could be a bit on the low side due to the damage reports on St. Lucia. So the intensity is now at 80kts, just shy of cat 2 status. I have a feeling NHC may be a little low on the intensity forecast late in the period if Tomas is a 80kts already; I think we could well see a cat 4 by day 5 if some more decent strengthening occurs before the shear increases between day 2 and 3, and if the shear eases as forecast after day 3.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

tomas is now a cat 2, and may make a 4, as somerset says. on the sat it still looks messy, with no eye as yet as far as I can see

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Back down to tropical storm status due to high wind shear. Major hurricane status is very much an outside bet now, though Tomas is still expected to restrengthen to at least Category 1 before likely impacting Haiti.

A very potent November storm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is expected to recurve northward and strengthen, could anybody post the model tracks because i would favour a shift west, with a much closer hit on Jamaca.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The shear was expected but not this strong. Intensity has fallen to 40kts, and Tomas could weaken further over the next 24hrs. The LLC is displaced much further west than the ball of deep convection which appears to be moving away from the LLC. The forecast still shows eventual strengthening, as shear is still expected to ease like in previous NHC forecasts. Tomas could regain hurricane strength near Haiti, so Tomas still is a dangerous storm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Somewhat worryingly, the latest GDFL run has Tomas as a Category 4/5 striking western Haiti (this means the strong NE quadrant of the Hurricane would hit the area affected worst by the earthquake). The likelihood of this actually occuring is probably fairly low, but nonetheless it is the last thing that Haiti needs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rapid strengthening is possible, as the air is becoming much moister (as evidenced by the increasing convection), shear is set to decrease further and waters are near 30C. Cat 4/5, IMO, is unlikely but there is a good chance of Tomas becoming a cat 3.

Jeff Masters Blog details how much destruction Tomas has caused the Lesser Antilles- with 14 dead and more missing in St. Lucia:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1681

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hurricane watched issued for Jamaica

204614w5nlsm.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tomas was downgraded to a tropical depression this morning, and has remained one this afternoon. The shear has persisted and caused the LLC to broaden and become ill defined. In addition, the convection became very disorganised. However, Tomas seems to be reorganising again looking at latest satellite imagery. The LLC has reformed to the northeast of the last known position, and convection is slowly consolidating around this centre. Tomas could become a tropical storm again by tomorrow- but this assumes the new centre can survive. If it does, Haiti could still be hit by a strong tropical storm/low end hurricane in a day or so. Tomas is still of great threat to Haiti.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Certainly is Cookie, and the NHC have re-upgraded Tomas to a tropical storm, with intensity rising back up to 40kts. Tomas is in a position to strengthen further now there is a defined circulation again. I think a cat 1 landfall on Haiti still appears likely. This is not good news at all for Haiti, who are very vunerable to even weak storms due to the vast deforestation throughout the country, increasing subsceptability to dangerous mudslides and flooding, which has and probably will in this case lead to loss of life. Where Tomas goes after Haiti is open to question, but with land interaction and increasing shear, weakening appears likely at days 3-5.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hopefully it should move through Haiti fairly quickly: the last thing a country in the midst of a cholera epidemic needs is flooding.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tropical storm Tomas is gaining strength as it approaches Haiti, where a hurricane warning is in effect. The Haitian government has urged the people forced into camps and tent cities after January's devastating earthquake to seek shelter with friends and families. "We are using radio stations to announce to people that if they don't have a place to go, but they have friends and families, they should move into a place that is secure," said civil protection official Nadia Lochard, who oversees the department that includes the capital, Port-au-Prince.
Tomas was upgraded back to tropical storm status Wednesday evening, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. By Thursday morning, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h, with some strengthening expected. "The forecast track this morning takes Tomas across the western edge of Haiti as a Category 1 hurricane tomorrow morning," CBC meteorologist Johanna Wagstaffe said. Wagstaffe said the exact track and intensity of the storm is still uncertain, but she noted that there is a risk of "high winds, flash floods and mudslides" in Haiti.

The storm was located about 510 kilometres southwest of Haiti's capital, Port-au-Prince, and about 255 kilometres south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Tomas was moving northwest at about 11 km/h, forecasters said. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said a hurricane warning is also in effect for southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. A tropical storm warning was issued for Jamaica, along with tropical storm watches for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba.

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2010/11/04/hurricane-warning-haiti-tomas.html#ixzz14JD42H4z

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just watching Channel 4 and Jon Snow's very troubling report from Haiti. Prospects are awful for those folks still living in rough camps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Some first weekend of Summer - even the pigeons don't fancy it

    Gusting winds, showers and persistent rain - not the type of weather you'd usually associate with the first weekend of summer. But there will be some improvement through the weekend and into next week. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-06-05 21:46:10 Valid: 06/06/2020 0600 - 07/06/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SAT 6TH JUNE 2020 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...