November CET

[Optimus Prime]

CET mean for the 4th was 13.3c....a new November record?

[DAVID SNOW]

CET mean for the 4th was 13.3c....a new November record?

Nah,way back in 1272 on the same day it was 32.7

[suffolkboy_]

Nah,way back in 1272 on the same day it was 32.7

Huh!?

[Stu_London]

CET mean for the 4th was 13.3c....a new November record?

15.4C on 5th November 1938.

4th November 2010 might be ranked in the top 30 november days, however 13.3C is not that remarkable even in historic times (November 1772 had 2 days that exceeded that value)

[Weather-history]

15.4C on 5th November 1938.

4th November 2010 might be ranked in the top 30 november days, however 13.3C is not that remarkable even in historic times (November 1772 had 2 days that exceeded that value)

I think the 3rd or 4th November 1996 reached 15.0C

And on the 22nd November 1947 the CET minimum was 13.5C!!

[Isolated Frost]

12.1C (+3.8C) to the 5th

Lots of cooling days coming up it seems, 9C to the 10th?

EDIT: Is this Max only?

Edited November 7, 2010 by Isolated Frost

[Stu_London]

12.1C (+3.8C) to the 5th

Lots of cooling days coming up it seems, 9C to the 10th?

EDIT: Is this Max only?

Yes 12.1C is almost certainly the peak value for the month.

Some hints on the modelling of pressure rising later in the month, which at this time of year could herald a sustained period of below average temperatures as inversions start to come into play

[Isolated Frost]

Yes 12.1C is almost certainly the peak value for the month.

Some hints on the modelling of pressure rising later in the month, which at this time of year could herald a sustained period of below average temperatures as inversions start to come into play

I'm rather shocked at this change, from 15C highs, to 5C ones. If this is sustained, it could take a hell of a lot of the CET. I went from 10.2C to 9.4C on my provisional running mean last night, down a massive 0.8C, and it looks like dropping below 9C tonight. If the CET sees these drops regularly, it could easily managed a below average month, and the models are showing below average temperatures until the end of their sequences, and with low pressure and a polar airmass, no shocks if snow fell on low ground during a certain event. If pressure rises as you say, some very frosty nights towards the end of the month could occur.

I seem to remember, during the end of October, we had a SW'ly, and there was no signs of cool, or infact wintry weather. Out of nowhere, we got a NW'ly, low pressure, and a mad storm track, along with great possibility of widespread Wintry weather, you can't ever be too sure of anything, it seems.

[Snowyowl9]

The patteren we have now is reminding me of 2 years ago,so cooling down on average is what I can see this month.

[Optimus Prime]

GFS 0Z has the 7th-11th period at 5.4c. 2.2c below the average for that period. CET by the 11th should be around 8.7c.

Edited November 7, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[BornFromTheVoid]

The 06z GFS would have us at 10.6C by the 7th, 9.5C by the 9th, 8.7C by the 11th and 8.6C by the 13th.

I'd say somewhere between 8.3C and 8.9C by mid month

[BornFromTheVoid]

10.6 to the 7th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 5.5C. The minimum for today is 3.6C, and maxima look around 5C or 6C so a drop back to about 9.9C looks likely.

After that the GFS 06z would have us at 8.8C to the 10th, 8.5C to the 12th, 8.1C to the 14th and 7.9C to the 15th.

If we end up on 8.0C by the 15th, we would need to average 5C for the remainder of the month to reach the 61-90 average...

[Stu_London]

If we end up on 8.0C by the 15th, we would need to average 5C for the remainder of the month to reach the 61-90 average...

Certainly by no means impossible, in fact probably not that far below average for the second half on November.

[Roger J Smith]

The GFS 18z run looks chilly indeed for most of the period beyond this weekend. I'm not too worried (yet) about my low CET prediction, these charts would take a lot of the surplus away. As we know, FI tends to be more useful for overall trends than actual events. Would not take much imagination to see arctic cold descending on the UK some time in the period with all that deep cold banked up between Greenland and Norway for such an extended period, and a weakening storm track dropping south in the Atlantic.

[Stu_London]

CET to the 8th November

10.0C

Still 2.0C above the running average, although that is going to get eaten away fairly quickly over the next week or so.

In the reliable timeframe, only Saturday looks like bucking the daily falling trend.

[damianslaw]

CET to the 8th November

10.0C

Still 2.0C above the running average, although that is going to get eaten away fairly quickly over the next week or so.

In the reliable timeframe, only Saturday looks like bucking the daily falling trend.

To be honest Saturday is not looking particularly mild neither. Forecast highs for Thursday are fast tumbling now as well - only way is down for the CET in the coming days..

[Stu_London]

CET to the 9th November

9.6

Today looks quite a bit colder than yesterday (perhaps sub 4C)

If 4C or less then we will be down to 9.0C or less tomorrow.

Forecast modelling is a bit all over the place at the minute, so it is difficult to be confident in the medium to long term, but the immediate trend for the next few days is down - probably about 8.2 by mid month.

[Isolated Frost]

My local average is 8.1C to the 9th, but after today, it's projected to be at just 7.2/7.3C, so an incredibly quick withdrawal of the early mildness!

[summer blizzard]

CET to the 9th November

9.6

Today looks quite a bit colder than yesterday (perhaps sub 4C)

If 4C or less then we will be down to 9.0C or less tomorrow.

Forecast modelling is a bit all over the place at the minute, so it is difficult to be confident in the medium to long term, but the immediate trend for the next few days is down - probably about 8.2 by mid month.

There is certainly a cool outlook until mid next week, with both friday and saturday now looking near average followed by cool weather afterward.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm not sure if the Hadley CET uses the standard 0900-0900 recording system, but if it does, we may well find that today's maximum gets exceeded at 8-9am tomorrow morning, with tomorrow morning's figure attributed to today's maximum as a result.

[Paul T]

It will be 9.1 to the 10th i think, still could go either way this month, anything between 6.5 to 8.5 is a possibility.

Paul

[Isolated Frost]

9C to the 11th, 1.1C above the normal average after the first eleven days.

Here in Washington, the mean is 7C to the 11th (using 0000-0000 method), but should hit 7.1C to the 12th. Anyone know when the temps. will be back below average?

[Stu_London]

9C to the 11th, 1.1C above the normal average after the first eleven days.

Here in Washington, the mean is 7C to the 11th (using 0000-0000 method), but should hit 7.1C to the 12th. Anyone know when the temps. will be back below average?

The next 5 days will be fairly close to average I think. thereafter there are some signals that suggest a spell of below average conditions.

[Isolated Frost]

After checking the METO, projections here are:

7.1C to the 12th

7C to the 13th

6.8C to the 14th

6.6C to the 15th

6.4C to the 16th

Slow and steady, with forecasts currently, I'm expecting around 6C or over for the 20th here, and around 8C for the CET. Currently, I think anyone between 7C and 7.5C has the best chance, but if the cold spells towards the end occur, 6.5C to 7C is very much possible.

What's interesting is, here at Durham, we're normally 0.75C to 1.5C below the CET figures, but we are a full 2C below, and the gap is widening... Could this be a month were the North will be slightly below average, and the south above? It seems that the mild days at the start of the month were more marked in Southern and Central areas. However, we did hit 15.9C during the spell.

[damianslaw]

After checking the METO, projections here are:

7.1C to the 12th

7C to the 13th

6.8C to the 14th

6.6C to the 15th

6.4C to the 16th

Slow and steady, with forecasts currently, I'm expecting around 6C or over for the 20th here, and around 8C for the CET. Currently, I think anyone between 7C and 7.5C has the best chance, but if the cold spells towards the end occur, 6.5C to 7C is very much possible.

What's interesting is, here at Durham, we're normally 0.75C to 1.5C below the CET figures, but we are a full 2C below, and the gap is widening... Could this be a month were the North will be slightly below average, and the south above? It seems that the mild days at the start of the month were more marked in Southern and Central areas. However, we did hit 15.9C during the spell.

There has been a fair north-south split so far this month in terms of temperatures. Scotland and the far north of england has seen a fair amount of polar maritime air which has kept maxes at or just above average (discounting the opening 4-5 days). Whereas the south has been in more tropical maritime air with mostly very mild nights. I suspect the final CET Scotland will show a below average month for them.