Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[Isolated Frost]

Mild and wet I understand. Dry and cold I understand. I just don't get how the winter ahead can be forecast to be mild and dry? (relatively)

Surely the latter combo is more or less mutually exclusive? What weather pattern can give us milder and drier weather in winter?

South Easterlies, Euro/Bartlett High?

[Guest]

South Easterlies, Euro/Bartlett High?

South Easterlies would be dry/cold and Euro/Bartlett would be wet/mild.

[Isolated Frost]

South Easterlies would be dry/cold and Euro/Bartlett would be wet/mild.

SSE, S'ly?

[damianslaw]

Mild and wet I understand. Dry and cold I understand. I just don't get how the winter ahead can be forecast to be mild and dry? (relatively)

Surely the latter combo is more or less mutually exclusive? What weather pattern can give us milder and drier weather in winter?

The dreaded 'barlett high' with a pronounced ridge northwards would give a dry mild winter meaning fronts would be deflected far to the NW with only the far NW seeing any appreciable rain. This or the extension of the euro high northwards to cover the south of the country where mean central heights are over south France as opposed to central europe - the former would ensure milder air aloft, the latter incidentally would bring colder continental air to south east parts and probably allow for a wet north.

Neither of these two synoptics I would like to see dominating the winter.

[Cheese Rice]

The dreaded 'barlett high' with a pronounced ridge northwards would give a dry mild winter meaning fronts would be deflected far to the NW with only the far NW seeing any appreciable rain. This or the extension of the euro high northwards to cover the south of the country where mean central heights are over south France as opposed to central europe - the former would ensure milder air aloft, the latter incidentally would bring colder continental air to south east parts and probably allow for a wet north.

Neither of these two synoptics I would like to see dominating the winter.

I was always under the impression that a Barlet high -if too far north- would allow cold surface air of the continent, and if too far south would bring mild wet conditions. So I'm not too sure how you can get mild & dry without either a large swathe of the country under wet weather or under cold surface air. 

[knocker]

It would appear there are a number of contrasting factors which will come together to produce either a notably cold winter or notably mild winter...................

Such as? As it stands it doesn't tell the uninitiated a great deal. All options are open.

Edited October 29, 2010 by weather ship

[Weather-history]

Mild and wet I understand. Dry and cold I understand. I just don't get how the winter ahead can be forecast to be mild and dry? (relatively)

Surely the latter combo is more or less mutually exclusive? What weather pattern can give us milder and drier weather in winter?

Mild and dry winters are possible and have happen but they are more likely south of the Border

1975-76 and 1991-92 are recent examples of winter that were overall drier and milder than normal.

1963-64 was a very dry winter for Scotland and was not particularly cold overall.

As has been mentioned, high pressure to the south with a broad SWly airstream but enough influence by high pressure so that it not wet.

For England and Wales, February 1998 is an an example of an exceptionally mild winter month that was also very dry.

Edited October 29, 2010 by Mr_Data

[johnholmes]

an explanation of a Bartlett High(note the spelling folks!) at this link, their definitions are usually as good as anywhere on the web.

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/117

as to the possible winter type we all have to wait and see. The major consensus does seem to suggest below average by a small amount in the SE becoming average or a touch above in the far NW. Dry overall.

As others have said neither of these preclude mild SW'lys nor cold northerlies or easterlies. Nor that there will be no snow and frost. Just that the average over the 90 day period seems to fit as suggested above?

Edited October 29, 2010 by johnholmes

[Thundery wintry showers]

Wasn't 2005/06 quite a dry mild winter over much of Scotland? High pressure was centred further north which gave the south-east fairly cold weather while many parts of Scotland were often under a mild south-westerly flow on the high's northern flank, but with fronts displaced so far north that many parts saw little rain. Not exceptionally mild by any means though.

The winter quarter of 1988/89 ended up exceptionally dry and mild over most of England plus eastern Scotland, due to persistence of "Bartlett"/Euro Highs.

[EML Network]

Howdy Folks

Been Doing a lot of research about the prospects of the coming winter, and my conclusion is that it was pointless trying to figure out what the weather will be more than a month ahead of the current date.

the NAO charts keep switching from positive to negative, the La Nina probably wont make much of a difference due to the fact that were so far away from the pacific , the gulf stream according to some has stalled, some say it's gone south , some say it's in it's normal position, personally I think it has moved south a bit, and I think that will have an effect.

Sunspot activity I think has a lag effect on the weather, and so I think this might tend to lean us towards a globally cooler few years ahead, this winter included, because of low activity over the past several years...but there's no real way to prove the effect of sunspot activity , but common sense would say it should have some kind of effect

So I think one can predict if it is LIKELY or Probable to be warmer or colder, but that's about all, obviously there is much more to consider, when it comes to making a detailed prediction, but it's all about probability's when making a ''forecast'' so far ahead, and the probability is , that some will get it right, some will nail it, some will be wrong, and some will be wayyyy out.

I think this is probably why forecasts more than a month ahead of the current date, can be open to interpretation, and are sometimes vague.

So once were at the beginning of December, We'll have a better understanding of what is likely to happen, based on probability, and of course by researching the past trends, however, I'm really not convinced that studying what has happened previously and comparing it to the current is an effective method as the sheer amount of variables involved means that you are highly unlikely to find a year that has followed the exact same pattern.

Personally I think were due for an average winter this year, in pretty much everything from temperature, to precipitation, and My basis for that conclusion is that, that is what I FEEL

Time will tell

[Isolated Frost]

Howdy Folks

Been Doing a lot of research about the prospects of the coming winter, and my conclusion is that it was pointless trying to figure out what the weather will be more than a month ahead of the current date.

the NAO charts keep switching from positive to negative, the La Nina probably wont make much of a difference due to the fact that were so far away from the pacific , the gulf stream according to some has stalled, some say it's gone south , some say it's in it's normal position, personally I think it has moved south a bit, and I think that will have an effect.

Sunspot activity I think has a lag effect on the weather, and so I think this might tend to lean us towards a globally cooler few years ahead, this winter included, because of low activity over the past several years...but there's no real way to prove the effect of sunspot activity , but common sense would say it should have some kind of effect

So I think one can predict if it is LIKELY or Probable to be warmer or colder, but that's about all, obviously there is much more to consider, when it comes to making a detailed prediction, but it's all about probability's when making a ''forecast'' so far ahead, and the probability is , that some will get it right, some will nail it, some will be wrong, and some will be wayyyy out.

I think this is probably why forecasts more than a month ahead of the current date, can be open to interpretation, and are sometimes vague.

So once were at the beginning of December, We'll have a better understanding of what is likely to happen, based on probability, and of course by researching the past trends, however, I'm really not convinced that studying what has happened previously and comparing it to the current is an effective method as the sheer amount of variables involved means that you are highly unlikely to find a year that has followed the exact same pattern.

Personally I think were due for an average winter this year, in pretty much everything from temperature, to precipitation, and My basis for that conclusion is that, that is what I FEEL

Time will tell

Seems like a very good analysis of the current situation.

[knocker]

How on earth can the Gulf Stream move south?

[Thundery wintry showers]

The phrase "wishful thinking" springs to mind- the Gulf Stream may or may not slow down but I think it's no trivial task to get it to "move south"!

[Isolated Frost]

How on earth can the Gulf Stream move south?

Haha, just noticed. Perhaps he meant the Jet Stream?

[blitzen]

Another read:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/29/spencer-bottom-falling-out-of-global-ocean-surface-temperatures/#more-27131

[EML Network]

How on earth can the Gulf Stream move south?

Ha Ha did I say the gulf stream..oops I meant the Jet stream...Ha Ha...doh !!!

[EML Network]

The phrase "wishful thinking" springs to mind- the Gulf Stream may or may not slow down but I think it's no trivial task to get it to "move south"!

Yes Indeed I was referring to the stream of Jet, as opposed the Gulf.

On average the Jet stream is further south than in previous years although I know it does shift massively from one day to the next

here's where it'll be tomorrow :

[UV-RAY]

The phrase "wishful thinking" springs to mind- the Gulf Stream may or may not slow down but I think it's no trivial task to get it to "move south"!

Actually I'll think you will find that the Gulf stream as moved South during the LIA. Plenty of evidence to suggest that this happened many times before.

[New Ice Age]

The Gulf Stream is dead. Don't know why you's are talking about it!!

[Marcus_surfer]

Met Office going for another mild winter

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8090325/Met-Office-data-suggests-mild-winter-but-dont-forget-last-year.html

Although the Met Office no longer issues long-term forecasts, their latest data suggest a high probability of a warmer winter for London, the East of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The South West, Wales and most of the North of England are less likely to enjoy such relatively pleasant temperatures but still have a 40 to 60 per cemt chance of being mild.

This is rubbish! So where does the cold air come from for SW parts, the Azores?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Since it doesn't remotely match the data I saw from the Met Office's maps (the likelihood of a mild winter decreased towards the SE), I have a suspicion that someone hasn't been reading the maps properly...

But the official forecasters have said that this winter could be unusually mild and dry, with temperatures at least 2C more than last year’s big freeze in which snow and ice caused travel chaos across much of Britain.

"At least 2C more than a winter which was 2 to 3C below average across large areas of the country" doesn't exactly equate to "unusually mild"!

[camiscool]

Talks of a January 1987 on the weather outlook

[cooling climate]

Talks of a January 1987 on the weather outlook

LOL thats nothing, one of the posters on the winter forcast online thread is talking

of a winter worse than 1683-84.

Icebergs in the channel it is then.

[EML Network]

IT'SJET STREAM .LOL

The Gulf Stream is dead. Don't know why you's are talking about it!!

Anyway All this talk about the gulf AND Jet stream takes you WELL away from my main point which was to do with the larger picture in terms of forecasting, predicting, or making probabilities on the current ''run''.

Essentially forecasting the weather pattern in the uk more than 4 weeks in advance is just that..I.E it is using data from the current ''run'' to make a prediction about what is likely to happen, the more ''probable'' the prediction is at that current time, then that's the one you will go with.

I'm not a forecaster but I am sure that there are more than likely several different likely outcomes as to how the weather might be one + month ahead of the current date, perhaps someone , somewhere should make 2 predictions for a long range forecast and add a *confidence* rating to each ??

Just an idea !!

[ZONE 51]

perhaps someone , somewhere should make 2 predictions for a long range forecast and add a *confidence* rating to each ??

Just an idea !!

chance meter..britain

-temperature-

above average.. 10%

average.... 25%

below average.. 65%

-rainfall-

above average.. 5%

average.... 20%

below average.. 75%

-frost-widespread-

severe frosts...75%

normal frosts...25%

snow showers from east and ne

85%

battle ground set ups

50%

snow potential in general

75%

rain 25%

dry 75%

wet 25%

high pressure dominating in december

atlantic blocked 85%

atlantic getting in at times 15%