Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[cyclonic happiness]

TBH dont think it was anywhere near -25c in Nuneaton.

I recorded -16c in Coventry and a few parts of Warwickshire had -20c, that being in 1981/82 twice.

It was Newtown, Powys that managed the record breaking -26c.

I could be wrong, it was the front page on the nuneaton tribune or something back then, I remember reading it as a kid and getting really excited lol!

[Methuselah]

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Month-Ahead-Forecast.php

Fairly reasonable this time, probably because it's only a few days to go, I'm sure if this was September 27th, the November Forecast would be freezing and blizzards!

But, as for their winter forecast?

At this stage (October!) little more than guesswork would be my impression...

[R.P. McMurphy]

It depends on what you are comparing it to. You can move into a period of higher solar activity as in relation to what has gone on just previous ie the minimum but just not as high as past solar maxima. Remember it was only 2 years ago we were predicted to be having one of strongest if not the strongest solar maximum ever recorded. That doesn't look the case now.

It's not even at peak yet so how is that not the case?

[MR EXTREMES]

http://www.positivew...ad-Forecast.php

Fairly reasonable this time, probably because it's only a few days to go, I'm sure if this was September 27th, the November Forecast would be freezing and blizzards!

if thats the picture of the forecaster then forget the freezing temps & blizzards hype she will do lol.

but at this moment in time i suspect novembers forecast will be totally the oposite.

im not a fan of pws.

i think this year is going to be hard to pin down due to la nina thats not to say cold wont come it will but its looking likely pm air being the favourate source this winter,

its also possible joe b might be wrong aswell but this does not stop me from think hes brillant fella.

It's not even at peak yet so how is that not the case?

and the peak interms of maximum will be very low and cycle25 even lower if you go to the solar thread theres plenty in there we are absolutely in a minimum compaired to 90s and early 2000s nasa had to have revised there solar forecast 3 times.

next cycle could turn out to be of maunder style and this cycle has been like dalton minimum.

Edited October 27, 2010 by badboy657

[Weather-history]

It's not even at peak yet so how is that not the case?

2008 Mar 28: predicted peak: 130-140 range

Latest: predicted peak down to the 60-70 range, expected in July 2013

http://www.appinsys.com/NASASolar.htm

Edited October 27, 2010 by Mr_Data

[TonyH]

Not sure about in Leicestershire but in my neck of the woods, in Edgmond, Shropshire, on 10 January 1982, the English lowest temperature weather record was broken (and is kept to this day): −26.1 °C (−15.0 °F). I remember that cold spell well. It was bloody freezing.

From 'Monthly Weather Report' of January 1982:

-18.5c Caldecott = lowest In Leicestershire

-21.0c Stratford upon Avon= lowest in Warwickshire.

Shropshire was most affected:

-26.1c Newport

-22.6c Preston Montford

-22.0c Shrewsbury!

Didn't somewhere in Leicestershire get down to about -21 in the 80's or 90's? Bloody cold lol. I was born in 1988 so I can never remember it being as cold as that. I think the coldest I remember it here was about -11 or -12 at the end of 2000, around 28-31st of December I think.

Loughborough -7.2c 31/12/2000

However various parts of the MIdlands were below -10c on the 29th, including Churchover, Warwickshire, -10.8c, . No doubt in parts of Leicestershire too.

( ref: COL)

Edited October 27, 2010 by Tonyh

[Radiating Dendrite]

if thats the picture of the forecaster then forget the freezing temps & blizzards hype she will do lol.

but at this moment in time i suspect novembers forecast will be totally the oposite.

im not a fan of pws.

i think this year is going to be hard to pin down due to la nina thats not to say cold wont come it will but its looking likely pm air being the favourate source this winter,

its also possible joe b might be wrong aswell but this does not stop me from think hes brillant fella.

and the peak interms of maximum will be very low and cycle25 even lower if you go to the solar thread theres plenty in there we are absolutely in a minimum compaired to 90s and early 2000s nasa had to have revised there solar forecast 3 times.

next cycle could turn out to be of maunder style and this cycle has been like dalton minimum.

Is that a pic of her? That is what we all want to know.

She is hot............I think a spot on national weather bulletins would be great!

Sorry for being off topic!

[Methuselah]

The quote I read says this

The Arctic blast predicted by experts – with a worst case scenario of minus 25C – will be even worse than last year’s cold snap, putting severe strain on the NHS.

Am I missing something here? Where does it say MET OFFICE?

BFTP

I wonder who the 'experts' are, Fred - Piers Corbyn? Positive Whitter Solutions? Or just some nameless people invented by the media?? :unsure:

[R.P. McMurphy]

2008 Mar 28: predicted peak: 130-140 range

Latest: predicted peak down to the 60-70 range, expected in July 2013

http://www.appinsys.com/NASASolar.htm

Sure it was off to a delayed start but still within the bounds of long-cycle variations. I'm one of those with the opinion that you cant really predict the sun anyway. Our observation of it is way to short-lived for that.

Solar Scientists Agree That the Sun's Recent Behavior Is Odd, but the Explanation Remains Elusive

The most recent solar minimum was both long and pronounced. But why?

MIAMI—In very rough terms, the sun's activity ebbs and flows in an 11-year cycle, with flares, coronal mass ejections and other energetic phenomena peaking at what is called solar maximum and bottoming out at solar minimum. Sunspots, markers of magnetic activity on the sun's surface, provide a visual proxy to mark the cycle's evolution, appearing in droves at maximum and all but disappearing at minimum. But the behavior of our host star is not as predictable as all that—the most recent solar minimum was surprisingly deep and long, finally bottoming out around late 2008 or so.

Solar physicists here at the semiannual meeting of the American Astronomical Society this week offered a number of mechanisms to shed light on what has been happening on the sun of late, but conceded that the final answer—or more likely answers—remains opaque. . . . .

So far, 65% of the days in December have brought sunspots--a sharp increase in percentages compared to earlier months of 2009 when sunspots were surpassingly rare. All six of December's sunspot groups have been members of new Solar Cycle 24. These numbers could herald the sun's awakening from the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century and a livelier sun in 2010.

[Cheese Rice]

Am I missing something here?  Where does it say MET OFFICE?

I did a direct copy and paste, they must have changed it later. 

Edit: Yep they changed it from Met office to experts. If you Google News Met office it shows a caption of the article at the time it was uploaded to the web. 

http://www.google.co...og&sa=N&tab=wn 

Edited October 27, 2010 by 10123

[Yorkshiresnows]

<br />poor old Joe B often gets either rave or the opposite, smething of a reputation for always forecasting cold/very cold winters for Europe and the UK.<br />I've just been looking on the free blog site he has and this is an excerpt<br /><br /><P itxtvisited="1">United Kingdom: London: Temps: .2F below normal. Precip: 90% of normal. Snowfall: normal. <P itxtvisited="1">Glasgow: Temps: .5F above normal. Precip: below normal. Snowfall: below normal. <P itxtvisited="1">Ireland: Dublin: Temps: .2F above normal. Precip: 90% of normal. Snowfall: below normal. <br /><br />Is that why his name seems to be featuring less often on Net Wx?<br /><br />sorry about the odd signs its how it copied from his blog <br /><br />tried to post his link but its not worked, anyway just google for joe b blog<br />

<br /><br /><br />

John, I think you need to look at a fairly recent post by Mr Data.

Joe B does not forecast a cold Europe / UK every winter, that has been clearly shown to be a myth.

You should also look a little more closely on what he is predicting for the UK and Northern Europe this winter... which is as a whole a normal to slightly milder than normal winter.

He has posted a video on the main Accu-weather site (expert video blogs), which provides his rationale for his forecast.

For me, he's been spot on for a fair while now, so like him or hate him.

Y.S

[Cheese Rice]

I did a direct copy and paste, they must have changed it later. 

Edit: Yep they changed it from Met office to experts. If you Google News Met office it shows a caption of the article at the time it was uploaded to the web. 

http://www.google.co...og&sa=N&tab=wn 

bump

Edited October 27, 2010 by 10123

[egret]

http://www.positivew...ad-Forecast.php

Fairly reasonable this time, probably because it's only a few days to go, I'm sure if this was September 27th, the November Forecast would be freezing and blizzards!

Interesting - I am not sure of the relevance of the photo attached to the link which would tend to indicate warmand summery (hot even?) rather than frosty ;-)

[Isolated Frost]

Interesting - I am not sure of the relevance of the photo attached to the link which would tend to indicate warmand summery (hot even?) rather than frosty ;-)

They have that on all their articles, very weird and amateur-like, can't figure out why.

[johnholmes]

<br /><br /><br />

John, I think you need to look at a fairly recent post by Mr Data.

Joe B does not forecast a cold Europe / UK every winter, that has been clearly shown to be a myth.

You should also look a little more closely on what he is predicting for the UK and Northern Europe this winter... which is as a whole a normal to slightly milder than normal winter.

He has posted a video on the main Accu-weather site (expert video blogs), which provides his rationale for his forecast.

For me, he's been spot on for a fair while now, so like him or hate him.

Y.S

I did not, as far as I was aware, either praise or knock him. I simply suggested that people should look at his latest blog, the one I referred to was less than 3 days old, rather than comment without reading or watching what he says.

.

[andy_leics22]

Morning Andy.

The coldest temps we have seen around our area was Dec 1981 when max temps struggled to rise above -12C. However when it comes to coldest upper temps this would be Jan 1987. The Dec 81 cold spell really was remarkable if you look at the archives. The upper temps were not especially cold compared to say Jan 87 but they wouldn't be because Dec 1981 was from the N rather than the E. The main cause for such low temps was a combination of calm winds, deep snow cover, clear skies and the very short days.

The effect deep snow cover has on temps really is remarkable. Take for example last winter when Oxford witnessed temps dropping to -16C by 9pm. This again was due to the very deep snow cover. What I have found is the deeper the snow cover the greater effect this will have on temps. Now only a covering of 1 inch doesn't have much effect. However if you have nearly 1ft of lying snow this can dramatically effect the temps if the winds are calm with clear skies.

That is awesome TEITS! I remember when I went to meet my auntie at Luton Airport on the 22nd December 2009 (last year) there was a slight dusting of snow on the ground when I left Leicester but when I arrived in Luton there was a 5-6 inch covering! I had to wait for her till around 7pm and by the time we got out the terminal I can safely say it was the coldest I have ever experienced. Luton Airport is a bit out in the open as it is, with that deep snow cover and clear skies by 7pm it felt extremely cold. It must have been around -8 or -9 at that point.

[The watcher]

I would actually agree of a normal - slightly mild winter...I wouldn't even rule out a chance of a very mild winter yet.

Don't get me wrong, I envisage cold spells and snow aswell, but I think this time the emphasis will be on Westerly and SW winds for the most part of the Winter with periods of Cold and Snow at times.

Thats not my forecast by the way, it'll be released in late November along with the finer details and explanatory reasons for my conclusion.

[andy_leics22]

<br /><br /><br />

John, I think you need to look at a fairly recent post by Mr Data.

Joe B does not forecast a cold Europe / UK every winter, that has been clearly shown to be a myth.

You should also look a little more closely on what he is predicting for the UK and Northern Europe this winter... which is as a whole a normal to slightly milder than normal winter.

He has posted a video on the main Accu-weather site (expert video blogs), which provides his rationale for his forecast.

For me, he's been spot on for a fair while now, so like him or hate him.

Y.S

Didn;t Joe B forecast an Armageddon Winter a few years ago that turned out to be absolute nonsense? :lol:

[Tom Quintavalle]

Joe B's thoughts on video for the upcoming European winter.

Pretty much in line with GPs initial thoughts,from what I can tell.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/646598930001/the-euro-winter-lets-not-get-too-carried-away.asp?channel=vbbastaj

Regards,

Tom.

[Cheese Rice]

 

The effect deep snow cover has on temps really is remarkable. Take for example last winter when Oxford witnessed temps dropping to -16C by 9pm. This again was due to the very deep snow cover. What I have found is the deeper the snow cover the greater effect this will have on temps. Now only a covering of 1 inch doesn't have much effect. However if you have nearly 1ft of lying snow this can dramatically effect the temps if the winds are calm with clear skies.

Location seems to play a big factor as well. Despite snow depths of over 20cm in Jan, Leeds never once went below -5.c. Infact the lowest ever recorded temperature for Leeds is -6.c, which is surprising considering parts of the city are as low as 30m asl.  

Edited October 27, 2010 by 10123

[Ben_Cambs]

Regarding TEITS point, very true. The snowfall from the 17-18th December gave a 5-6 inch covering here. Uppers were around -7C. The 19th and 20th provided some very cold maxima's. Temperatures pretty much struggled to get above -4C and thats in the centre of Cambridge! But only having about 4cm's from a trough on the 6th January, temperatures never got especially low, (-7.2C) was the lowest.

Being quite young, I've never experienced any particularly deep snowfall. I do hope we get a Easterly blast of some kind this winter coming! Though I have experienced some very low temperatures in the Alps(-20C), it would be lovely to see some of the very cold spells like you recall from the 70's and 80's in the UK.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It's not even at peak yet so how is that not the case?

Glenn

You need to look on. the solar activity thread and read up on the links there. There'll always be maxima and minima within the 11 year cycle but the Solar cycles vary in strength and length. The overall sunspot number this cycle is low, indeed darn low and cycle 25 forecast to be even lower. Cycles don't start this low and explode into action, it won't work that way.

BFTP

I wonder who the 'experts' are, Fred - Piers Corbyn? Positive Whitter Solutions? Or just some nameless people invented by the media?? :unsure:

Hi Pete..it has to be

Positive 'twitter' solutions...I mean PWS! Lol

BFTP

[kippure]

Joe B's thoughts on video for the upcoming European winter.

Pretty much in line with GPs initial thoughts,from what I can tell.

http://www.accuweath...hannel=vbbastaj

Regards,

Tom.

It was not what i was expecting. My heart sank. but i hope we get some snow at least.

[Glacier Point]

Joe B's thoughts on video for the upcoming European winter.

Pretty much in line with GPs initial thoughts,from what I can tell.

http://www.accuweath...hannel=vbbastaj

Regards,

Tom.

I think you could just fit a cigarette paper between us - I have the coldest departure further south-west than Joe but that's about it.

[in the vale]

I think you could just fit a cigarette paper between us - I have the coldest departure further south-west than Joe but that's about it.

Thanks GP - that's the first post of yours where I have understood every single word! I was slightly surprised that you didn't specify which particular weight of cigarette paper you mean... (all meant with respect, of course)