Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[beng]

Something else to throw into the mix for this winter and that's the potential for a major volcanic eruption in the tropics - apparently the scientists in Indonesia are expecting an explosive eruption - and the signs are that it's very imminent.

http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/home/mount-merapis-swelling-signals-huge-eruption-scientists-warn/403039

Should this happen imminently and the ash be thrown high enough into the atmosphere, there is might well increase (to some degree anyway) the strength of the winter polar vortex further by warming the tropical stratosphere.

Here's a live webcam for anyone interested - http://merapi.bgl.esdm.go.id/view-r.php?id=1&587

Edited October 24, 2010 by beng

[summer blizzard]

QBO is +ve (westerly) and growing in strength in the middle stratosphere. Any easterly component has more or less been flushed out now. Westerly QBO is illustrated as the positive anomaly in the tropical atmospheric chart below

Indeed, anologues indicate that we will mature +QBO conditions this winter. (slight weakening followed by the peak)

[cheeky_monkey]

Follow on link from yesterday's PDF article:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/WINTER_201011.pdf

i think this an old article i remember reading this here in Canada on the farmers almanac site back in August..dont know how relevant it is now 2 months on?

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Something else to throw into the mix for this winter and that's the potential for a major volcanic eruption in the tropics - apparently the scientists in Indonesia are expecting an explosive eruption - and the signs are that it's very imminent.

http://www.thejakart...sts-warn/403039

Should this happen imminently and the ash be thrown high enough into the atmosphere, there is might well increase (to some degree anyway) the strength of the winter polar vortex further by warming the tropical stratosphere.

Here's a live webcam for anyone interested - http://merapi.bgl.es...-r.php?id=1

It looks like it is going. I have neen watching the webcam now for a couple of days and there has been little activity. Just smoking a little. But every night indonesian time there is low cloud therefore i cant see anything. But there is now reports on the news that they are evacuating and the volcano is spewing ash. So it wont be long before it blows.

[blitzen]

Some more bed time reading:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100415080848.htm

[beng]

It looks like it is going. I have neen watching the webcam now for a couple of days and there has been little activity. Just smoking a little. But every night indonesian time there is low cloud therefore i cant see anything. But there is now reports on the news that they are evacuating and the volcano is spewing ash. So it wont be long before it blows.

http://bigthink.com/blogs/eruptions

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD41290.shtml

There's now an ash advisory at 60000 feet issued by the Australian Government.

[Cheese Rice]

Ohh maa gosh 

The Arctic blast predicted by the MET Office – with a worst case scenario of minus 25C – will be even worse than last year’s cold snap, putting severe strain on the NHS

Now while I would love to believe in 'Coventry News' journalists. I just think, that on this occasion, they have got there facts mixed up.

http://www.coventryt...92746-27543846/

Edited October 26, 2010 by 10123

[The watcher]

Ohh maa gosh

The Arctic blast predicted by the MET Office – with a worst case scenario of minus 25C – will be even worse than last year’s cold snap, putting severe strain on the NHS

Now while I would love to believe in 'Coventry News' journalists. I just think that on this occasion, they have got there facts mixed up.

http://www.coventryt...92746-27543846/

Don't think the UK has ever seen an Arctic blast bringing -25c, when temps like that are recorded they are in Scotland and usually under clear skies and snow fields in an Easterly blast. Definitely a bit of lieing through teeth going on there.

[johncoolj]

Don't think the UK has ever seen an Arctic blast bringing -25c, when temps like that are recorded they are in Scotland and usually under clear skies and snow fields in an Easterly blast. Definitely a bit of lieing through teeth going on there.

they should have said -2

[cyclonic happiness]

that would be great....mind you we did get to -25'c in 1980 in nuneaton.

the worst i can remember was -16'c in 1991 omg, that was so cold, makes me wonder why no-one in the town where i was brought up, ever mentioning such cold temps???

[johnholmes]

poor old Joe B often gets either rave or the opposite, smething of a reputation for always forecasting cold/very cold winters for Europe and the UK.

I've just been looking on the free blog site he has and this is an excerpt

<P itxtvisited="1">United Kingdom: London: Temps: .2F below normal. Precip: 90% of normal. Snowfall: normal. <P itxtvisited="1">Glasgow: Temps: .5F above normal. Precip: below normal. Snowfall: below normal. <P itxtvisited="1">Ireland: Dublin: Temps: .2F above normal. Precip: 90% of normal. Snowfall: below normal.

Is that why his name seems to be featuring less often on Net Wx?

sorry about the odd signs its how it copied from his blog

tried to post his link but its not worked, anyway just google for joe b blog

Edited October 26, 2010 by johnholmes

[TonyH]

that would be great....mind you we did get to -25'c in 1980 in nuneaton.

the worst i can remember was -16'c in 1991 omg, that was so cold, makes me wonder why no-one in the town where i was brought up, ever mentioning such cold temps???

TBH dont think it was anywhere near -25c in Nuneaton.

I recorded -16c in Coventry and a few parts of Warwickshire had -20c, that being in 1981/82 twice.

It was Newtown, Powys that managed the record breaking -26c.

Edited October 26, 2010 by Tonyh

[Fozfoster]

Ohh maa gosh

The Arctic blast predicted by the MET Office – with a worst case scenario of minus 25C – will be even worse than last year’s cold snap, putting severe strain on the NHS

Now while I would love to believe in 'Coventry News' journalists. I just think, that on this occasion, they have got there facts mixed up.

We could be sent to Coventry!

Edited October 26, 2010 by fozfoster

[Cheese Rice]

 

Yeah I posted the entire forecast a few days ago on this thread and it didn't garner any responses. Says alot -really- about some of the posters on here who only sing to one tune. On the video blog (1) he has released a forecast, I don't think it's the full one as there isn't as much detail as last year (although he did say this year he is busy). 

On a side note his video forecast is similar to what I forecast back on the 28th July, will be interesting to see if it comes of. 

(1) http://www.google.co...l=&oq=&gs_rfai=  (First search result) 

Edited October 26, 2010 by 10123

[andy_leics22]

Didn't somewhere in Leicestershire get down to about -21 in the 80's or 90's? Bloody cold lol. I was born in 1988 so I can never remember it being as cold as that. I think the coldest I remember it here was about -11 or -12 at the end of 2000, around 28-31st of December I think.

Edited October 27, 2010 by andy_leics22

[swipe]

Not sure about in Leicestershire but in my neck of the woods, in Edgmond, Shropshire, on 10 January 1982, the English lowest temperature weather record was broken (and is kept to this day): −26.1 °C (−15.0 °F). I remember that cold spell well. It was bloody freezing.

[Weather-history]

will be even worse than last year’s cold snap

Last winter had a cold snap?! You would think journos would have at least some understanding of English words and their meanings.

Edited October 27, 2010 by Mr_Data

[TEITS]

Didn't somewhere in Leicestershire get down to about -21 in the 80's or 90's? Bloody cold lol. I was born in 1988 so I can never remember it being as cold as that. I think the coldest I remember it here was about -11 or -12 at the end of 2000, around 28-31st of December I think.

Morning Andy.

The coldest temps we have seen around our area was Dec 1981 when max temps struggled to rise above -12C. However when it comes to coldest upper temps this would be Jan 1987. The Dec 81 cold spell really was remarkable if you look at the archives. The upper temps were not especially cold compared to say Jan 87 but they wouldn't be because Dec 1981 was from the N rather than the E. The main cause for such low temps was a combination of calm winds, deep snow cover, clear skies and the very short days.

The effect deep snow cover has on temps really is remarkable. Take for example last winter when Oxford witnessed temps dropping to -16C by 9pm. This again was due to the very deep snow cover. What I have found is the deeper the snow cover the greater effect this will have on temps. Now only a covering of 1 inch doesn't have much effect. However if you have nearly 1ft of lying snow this can dramatically effect the temps if the winds are calm with clear skies.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

Yeah I posted the entire forecast a few days ago on this thread and it didn't garner any responses. Says alot -really- about some of the posters on here who only sing to one tune. On the video blog (1) he has released a forecast, I don't think it's the full one as there isn't as much detail as last year (although he did say this year he is busy). 

On a side note his video forecast is similar to what I forecast back on the 28th July, will be interesting to see if it comes of. 

(1) http://www.google.co...l=&oq=&gs_rfai=  (First search result) 

He is forecasting core of cold towards the Balkans and southern Europe, SE UK to just get in colder than norm but rest of UK and Ireland norm to just above...sounds familiar that set up,

BFTP

Ohh maa gosh 

The Arctic blast predicted by the MET Office – with a worst case scenario of minus 25C – will be even worse than last year’s cold snap, putting severe strain on the NHS

Now while I would love to believe in 'Coventry News' journalists. I just think, that on this occasion, they have got there facts mixed up.

http://www.coventryt...92746-27543846/

The quote I read says this

The Arctic blast predicted by experts – with a worst case scenario of minus 25C – will be even worse than last year’s cold snap, putting severe strain on the NHS.

Am I missing something here? Where does it say MET OFFICE?

BFTP

[Methuselah]

poor old Joe B often gets either rave or the opposite, smething of a reputation for always forecasting cold/very cold winters for Europe and the UK.

I've just been looking on the free blog site he has and this is an excerpt

<P itxtvisited="1">United Kingdom: London: Temps: .2F below normal. Precip: 90% of normal. Snowfall: normal. <P itxtvisited="1">Glasgow: Temps: .5F above normal. Precip: below normal. Snowfall: below normal. <P itxtvisited="1">Ireland: Dublin: Temps: .2F above normal. Precip: 90% of normal. Snowfall: below normal.

Is that why his name seems to be featuring less often on Net Wx?

sorry about the odd signs its how it copied from his blog

tried to post his link but its not worked, anyway just google for joe b blog

Aye John. Sometimes, it's easy to think that the 'best' forecasters are those who most-often predict what's desired, and not what actually transpires...Hardly a measure of accuracy??

[R.P. McMurphy]

Hi Pete

Some more bed time reading:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100415080848.htm

A new report published on April 15, in IOP Publishing's Environmental Research Letters, describes how we are moving into an era of lower solar activity which is likely to result in UK winter temperatures more like those seen at the end of the seventeenth century.

Huh? Moving into an Era or lower solar activity? I don't think so.... Were actually entering a period of Higher Solar Activity, which will peak in May 2013. So for starters, that statement is wrong.

He said: "If we look at the last period of very low solar activity at the end of the seventeenth century, we find the coldest winter on record in 1684 but, for example, the very next year, when solar activity was still low, saw the third warmest winter in the entire 350-year record.

Talk about contradiction. It rather isn't or it is.

All in all, it's pretty much Hog Wash.

Edited October 27, 2010 by Glenn W

[Methuselah]

Hiya Glenn.

[Weather-history]

Huh? Moving into an Era or lower solar activity? I don't think so.... Were actually entering a period of Higher Solar Activity, which will peak in May 2013. So for starters, that statement is wrong.

It depends on what you are comparing it to. You can move into a period of higher solar activity as in relation to what has gone on just previous ie the minimum but just not as high as past solar maxima. Remember it was only 2 years ago we were predicted to be having one of strongest if not the strongest solar maximum ever recorded. That doesn't look the case now.

Edited October 27, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Isolated Frost]

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Month-Ahead-Forecast.php

Fairly reasonable this time, probably because it's only a few days to go, I'm sure if this was September 27th, the November Forecast would be freezing and blizzards!

[Strider]

http://www.positivew...ad-Forecast.php

Fairly reasonable this time, probably because it's only a few days to go, I'm sure if this was September 27th, the November Forecast would be freezing and blizzards!

I struggle to read anything on their site with that picture on every page