Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

[beng]

I'm no doubt being very thick here but could you go into a little more detail as to how ozone aids blocking. Ta.

It helps traps out-going heat in the stratosphere causing it to warm - which can help disrupt the polar vortex by warming the stratosphere in high latitude regions (assuming there is some in those regions). The downside of a la nina is that the stratosphere in equatorial regions tends to be warmer - which enhances the differences between the equator and the poles and leads to a more intense polar vortex. That's the basic principle as I understand - but I'm sure there's a lot more chaotic variables that can impact on how things ultimately turn out.

The ozone feedback from snow cover reflecting sunlight, ought to happen in the latter half of the winter - that's if you have deep snow cover to sufficiently southerly latitudes (where there will be sufficient sunlight). Oxygen breaks down in a photo-chemical reaction (i.e. in sunlight) to produce oxygen ions which can join with other oxygen atoms to produce ozone - that's if I remember my chemistry - which was a long time ago now!

[Don]

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

Not too keen on the way the CFS is trending as it seems to be moving away from a colder outlook for the UK with both January and February now showing warmer than average conditions. I know these charts chop and change and these months are still a long way off, but I don't like the current developing trend. However, for January at least the cold is still nearby.

Edited October 23, 2010 by Don

[bobbydog]

yes, interesting, well reasoned, to be continued!

thank you

It might be an idea if we could persuade Paul to put at the top of this thread?

No one, professional or amateur, has ever found any correlation of significance in sufficient of the many drivers/teleconnections/past charts, that suggests that the weather pattern in October has any relevance to what winter may bring, or indeed any relevance to winter from what November is.

Just to highlight to people new to the forum.

Have a look at what the end of November/early December showed in 2009 and how much relevance that had to the very cold and snoy (for some) spell in December and January.

Or have a look at early December 1962 and how that winter turned out?

That is only two instances and for it to be scientific one must take those occasions where it did the opposite but I can assure everyone that in 40 years in the Met O I never found any correlation of one month in autumn to winter nor did I ever read of anyone finding different.

thanks for the post john, very informative. btw, i just realised, i think the 'irrational' comment was aimed at me! (no offence taken however) i wasnt suggesting that november would necessarily influence december, its just that earlier LRFs for the winter months which included november were showing a cold november. this has recently turned around to a mild november. my question was really just about how this could affect the bigger picture of winter and how the overall weather patterns could change from the original forecasts

[knocker]

It helps traps out-going heat in the stratosphere causing it to warm - which can help disrupt the polar vortex by warming the stratosphere in high latitude regions (assuming there is some in those regions).

I thought it was the other way around. Ozone traps shortwave radiation (UV at certain wavelengths) which causes the warming of the stratosphere. One of the problems in the arctic stratosphere in recent years is that it has become colder (GW) allowing the formation of PSCs which act as a catalyst for the destruction of ozone. I just wondered whether it was about greater transport of ozone into the arctic stratosphere. I vaguely see your point about the vortex but the role of ozone still illudes me. Not to worry.

[blitzen]

A link here which lets us know what is going on in other parts of the world:

http://www.iceagenow.com/2010_Other_Parts_of_the_World.htm (You have to hit the translate button for the Norwegian article.)

Edited October 23, 2010 by Blitzen

[stewfox]

http://www.cpc.noaa..../glbz700Mon.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa....s3/euT2mMon.gif

Not too keen on the way the CFS is trending as it seems to be moving away from a colder outlook for the UK with both January and February now showing warmer than average conditions. I know these charts chop and change and these months are still a long way off, but I don't like the current developing trend. However, for January at least the cold is still nearby.

Would anyone wish for the old old days when people 'looked out of the window' for the 'forecast'.

Two weeks into my winter forcast and spot on so far.

[summer blizzard]

Just a little peice of information here..

The Atlantic Hurricane Season now has 17 named storms making it the 4th most active on record, the years ahead of it were 2005, 1995 and 1969, all the following winters had below average Decembers were all below average winters, food for thought.

[Isolated Frost]

Just a little peice of information here..

The Atlantic Hurricane Season now has 17 named storms making it the 4th most active on record, the years ahead of it were 2005, 1995 and 1969, all the following winters had below average Decembers were all below average winters, food for thought.

And delicious food aswell! Wouldn't mind a 1995 type December, was very good up here in the NE, even though I was only 8 for it!

[Cheese Rice]

Semi forecast issued by Joe at Accu. 

SATURDAY NOON:

HERE WE GO, A MORE DETAILED OUTLOOK

I hope to have a detailed European video on the free site this upcoming week. We have a pro site, where people pay for my day to day commentary and videos, and I think some of the misunderstanding here is that many of you dont understand that what you see here on the free site is the tip of my iceberg..in other words, work I volunteered to do because I wanted to show folks in Europe that I could forecast for you.. and that was to attract business interests in Europe as well as some of the altruistic motives. However a marked increase in my work demands in other areas has curtailed that idea, and so I have not been able to weigh in as much, and it pains me. Still the moving emails to me not only got me to do this, but, and if you are going to read my column you'll have to put up with my ideas ( if you don't like what I say, dont read it) really illuminated Luke 7:9 to me. Being that I am into things like, I felt to say thank you, I should make sure I get this out to you!

So here is what I have done. I have gone into much more detail in regions or countries. Please take no offense is your country is not mentioned specifically, you may just fall into the weather region I have you in. I have my map of Europe in front of me ( notice I even included Iceland!) and so I have really upped the ante here so to speak.

The analog package is much warmer than I have over the north. In fact, the analogs of La Ninas coming off el ninos the previous year is for major warmth north of 40 north, which is much of europe, centered over Scandinavia where winter temps approach as much as 7 above normal ( f)! Some of you, especially my readers in the United Kingdom are really chafing at my less than enthusiastic winter forecast there. Sorry, I just dont believe its going to be that cold.. a bit above normal in the north, near normal in the south, and while I am sure there will be times winter comes calling, there is more danger of it being warm than cold this winter. Its not last year. 

That being said, from Italy and the Alps through the Balkans and Turkey, through the Ukraine and into the south of Euro Russia, this looks to be a cold winter and one with more than normal snowfall. So here it is Temps are in F

Iceland temps 1.5 above normal precip near normal snowfall near normal/

United Kingdom.. London Temps -.2f below normal precip 90% of normal snow normal Glasgow temp plus .5 precip below normal snowfall below normal/ 

Ireland Dublin Temp plus .2F precip 90% of normal snow below/ 

France Paris temp -.2F precip 90% of normal snow near or a little above normal/ 

Spain...Madrid temp -.6F precip normal snow near or a little above normal/ 

Portugal Lisbon temp -.8F temp precip near normal snow near or a little above normal/ 

Switzerland. Geneva temp -1 f precip normal snowfall above normal/ 

Italy. North temp -1 precip near normal snowfall a bit above Italy south temp -1 precip above normal snow a bit above/ 

Austria Vienna temp -1.5 precip a bit above normal snowfall above normal/ 

Germany north temps .2 to .4 above normal precip below .. snowfall below normal Germany south temps .2 to .4 BELOW normal precip normal snowfall a bit above Benelux Same as northern Germany/ 

Scandinavia. 1 above normal south, 2-4 above normal north, precip below normal, snowfall much of Scandinavia below normal/ 

Poland temps 1 above normal north, 2 below normal south. precip below normal north, above south. snowfall near or below normal north, above normal south/ 

Czech republic temps 1-2 below normal precip slightly above snowfall above/ 

Balkans bounded by Slovakia and Hungary on north, Albania to Bulgaria on south, and eastward into the Ukraine temps 2-4 F below normal precip above normal snowfall above normal/ 

Greece temps 1-3 below normal north, 1 below normal south, precip above normal, snowfall above normal/

Turkey temps 1-3 below normal precip above, snowfall above/ 

Belarus Temps 1-2 below normal precip below snowfall near normal/ 

Lithuania.. normal across the board./ 

Latvia, Estonia temps around 1 above normal, precip below normal snowfall below normal/ 

Eurorussia. North : same as Scandinavia Central Same as Belarus South Same as Ukraine/ 

Now, if you agree or disagree, lets simply see how things turn out. But that is my idea in more detail now. 

Again, you are wonderful. I cant tell you how moved I was by the email, and you know something I brought up a spiritual aspect of it, but it gives me faith also that in spite of what looks to be a world spinning out of control, the basic goodness of people means there is hope for our children.

Sometimes in the weather, if you look hard enough, you can see that there is more at play than just the weather.

Edited October 23, 2010 by 10123

[blitzen]

Not the updated link I am waiting for but an interesting read none-the-less:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter2010playthattuneonemoretime.pdf

[blitzen]

Follow on link from yesterday's PDF article:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/WINTER_201011.pdf

Edited October 23, 2010 by Blitzen

[chionomaniac]

I remember GP commenting on the ozone in the upper atmosphere aiding blocking last winter, this winter with La Nina in play the blocking may be harder to come by, but what do people make of the current ozone situation - I'm certainly no expert on this - so would be really interested to hear some thoughts from those that have look into this in more depth.

The link below shows the ozone situation at the moment - which on the face of it may be looks promising for Scandinavian blocking?

http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/dailyMaps

http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/dailyMaps?language=e&today=20101022&srcf=0&ago=1&source=all&mvdt=-1&analysis=de&region=n

This is a good point, beng.

Currently the ozone levels towards the pole are similar to this point last year.

This year

Last year

The only difference that I can see is that there is more ozone in the tropical regions compared to last year. This is not surprising as the placement of polar/tropical ozone level placement depends upon the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The Brewer-Dobson circulation is a slow process where tropical ozone is redistributed to the poles in winter hemispheres. If I remember rightly GP posted a link to a paper last year that suggested that the Brewer-Dobson circulation has been shown to be enhanced in low solar, negative QBO situations, but reduced in low solar, positive QBO times (such as this winter).

Already I am seeing differences in the stratospheric temperature profile compared to last year - the polar stratosphere is colder and the tropical stratosphere is warmer. If this continues as expected over the winter months then we are likely to see an enhanced temperature gradient and stronger polar vortex as a result.

c

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Follow on link from yesterday's PDF article:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/WINTER_201011.pdf

Good to see that he hasn't changed his mind from 2 months ago, using the same presentation.

BFTP

[beng]

This is a good point, beng.

Currently the ozone levels towards the pole are similar to this point last year.

This year

Last year

The only difference that I can see is that there is more ozone in the tropical regions compared to last year. This is not surprising as the placement of polar/tropical ozone level placement depends upon the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The Brewer-Dobson circulation is a slow process where tropical ozone is redistributed to the poles in winter hemispheres. If I remember rightly GP posted a link to a paper last year that suggested that the Brewer-Dobson circulation has been shown to be enhanced in low solar, negative QBO situations, but reduced in low solar, positive QBO times (such as this winter).

Already I am seeing differences in the stratospheric temperature profile compared to last year - the polar stratosphere is colder and the tropical stratosphere is warmer. If this continues as expected over the winter months then we are likely to see an enhanced temperature gradient and stronger polar vortex as a result.

c

I think we'll have a significant vortex this winter - but if it splits, or doesn't sit over Greenland, then it won't necessarily preclude a cold UK winter. At the moment, I can see a strong zonal flow across the Atlantic for a lot of the winter - but possibly on a very southerly jet stream - which could make things quite interesting and allow some blocking to develop at a higher enough latitude for battle ground warm/cold scenarios to play out.

[chionomaniac]

I think we'll have a significant vortex this winter - but if it splits, or doesn't sit over Greenland, then it won't necessarily preclude a cold UK winter. At the moment, I can see a strong zonal flow across the Atlantic for a lot of the winter - but possibly on a very southerly jet stream - which could make things quite interesting and allow some blocking to develop at a higher enough latitude for battle ground warm/cold scenarios to play out.

I think that too. I am concerned that unless there is a SSW, we will see that the polar vortex will override other factors and I cannot see any prolonged cold spells. The best that I feel we will see is temporary mid Atlantic ridging into Greenland allowing northerly shots that will quickly topple. The other chance of cold from the east will depend upon the angulation of the jet. If we see early signs this winter that it is dropping south again and not angulated towards Scandinavia then we will have a shot, especially if the Siberian snow cover keeps increasing this Autumn.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think that too. I am concerned that unless there is a SSW, we will see that the polar vortex will override other factors and I cannot see any prolonged cold spells. The best that I feel we will see is temporary mid Atlantic ridging into Greenland allowing northerly shots that will quickly topple. The other chance of cold from the east will depend upon the angulation of the jet. If we see early signs this winter that it is dropping south again and not angulated towards Scandinavia then we will have a shot, especially if the Siberian snow cover keeps increasing this Autumn.

I think there is plenty of that to see already.

BFTP

[Kentish Kiwi]

I think there is plenty of that to see already.

BFTP

I think he probably means more towards the start of the winter, as opposed to mid-Autumn, as there will be a lot of change in the atmosphere in the NH between now and then (as I'm sure you already know). Although I do agree with your thoughts on the long term signal for a southerly tracking jet-stream (three years or so now) and it would seem unlikely for this to change too drastically by winter time.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think he probably means more towards the start of the winter, as opposed to mid-Autumn, as there will be a lot of change in the atmosphere in the NH between now and then (as I'm sure you already know). Although I do agree with your thoughts on the long term signal for a southerly tracking jet-stream (three years or so now) and it would seem unlikely for this to change too drastically by winter time.

Indeed but I'm suggesting the heads up is already in view.

BFTP

[damianslaw]

I think he probably means more towards the start of the winter, as opposed to mid-Autumn, as there will be a lot of change in the atmosphere in the NH between now and then (as I'm sure you already know). Although I do agree with your thoughts on the long term signal for a southerly tracking jet-stream (three years or so now) and it would seem unlikely for this to change too drastically by winter time.

I posted a few weeks back that the big player this year will be the jet in terms of dictacting the strength and depth of cold this winter. It has been in southerly mode for well over two years now - we saw it trending southerly as far back as winter 07/08 though not enough to prevent that winter being very mild. Whilst there are signs it will not be quite as southerly as last winter , I foresee a continuation of a southerly tracking jet and this will help aid the development of 'battleground situations' - we may well see a winter punctuated by alternating cold and mild weather with lots of snow where the two meet but with an emphasis on the cold being in greater residence than the mild. I do not foresee synoptics like last year, teleconnections and La Nina state are very different.

I have lost count the number of times over the past 2 years when the jet just as it looks like setting up shop northwards has suddenly drastically buckled - there is nothing to suggest this pattern will be broken anytime soon.

[beng]

Indeed but I'm suggesting the heads up is already in view.

BFTP

I agree BFTP. I had been thinking this winter was likely to be pretty mild up until a few days ago (due to the strong la nina), but I took a look in more detail at the Atlantic sea surface temps the other day - and these IMO at least, are currently quite supportive of the northern arm of the jet (there won't be much of a southerly one this winter) diving to the South of the UK. If we see charts like the ECM FI coming true during Nov, then this will help lock in the SST pattern for the winter months and enhance the chance of the jet staying South through the winter. When the jet moves North at times, there's going to be a high chance of some notable wind events too given all the energy going into the jet.

[Roger J Smith]

By the way, Fred (BFTP) and I have had one conversation about the winter forecast -- we won't commit to a scenario until November, but I could mention that indicators are all over the place suggesting that we might be facing a battle between the Siberian high into Scandi later, with blocking moving west, and the La Nina trying to energize the jet stream across the Atlantic. So I am leaning towards quite a cold December and part of January then milder. The main question we are trying to resolve is what to say about February. If that went back to more cold then it could be quite a winter indeed. Some time remains for a re-think and so I would label this as a preliminary forecast suggestion on my sole account, our joint effort will come out in November.

[Gavin P]

Follow on link from yesterday's PDF article:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/WINTER_201011.pdf

Thats very interesting. Suggests the winter gets colder and colder as it goes on.

[ZONE 51]

It seems everything is un-balanced and chaotic with the outputs, its amazing how many interactions their are to decide upon our winter, the La-Nina becoming a potential record breaker, low solar activity not seen for 100+yrs, NAO in a remarkably sustained negative (mostly) period (longest period in negative phase ever known?)12+months! and jet stream south of uk. -were in new times

now-

All connected in one way or another. i can only see COLD ,looking at other teleconnections i cant see mild, im not an expert and maybe ive missed something, its an exciting journey into winterland, when the Russian/Siberian winds come and at times sely flow we shall have snow, the cold building up waiting for attack of the atlantic, snow snow more snow..

Edited October 24, 2010 by nimbilus

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

By the way, Fred (BFTP) and I have had one conversation about the winter forecast -- we won't commit to a scenario until November, but I could mention that indicators are all over the place suggesting that we might be facing a battle between the Siberian high into Scandi later, with blocking moving west, and the La Nina trying to energize the jet stream across the Atlantic. So I am leaning towards quite a cold December and part of January then milder. The main question we are trying to resolve is what to say about February. If that went back to more cold then it could be quite a winter indeed. Some time remains for a re-think and so I would label this as a preliminary forecast suggestion on my sole account, our joint effort will come out in November.

Quite cheekily a while ago I posted that a cold Dec and early Jan was in the bag! Typical of my bulishness

Just for the record our first half agrees and RJS prelim is not a sole account as I concur.

For those that are up on this, what is the state of the QBO currently ie strong +ve/westerly, trending that way or what.

regards

BFTP

[chionomaniac]

Quite cheekily a while ago I posted that a cold Dec and early Jan was in the bag! Typical of my bulishness

Just for the record our first half agrees and RJS prelim is not a sole account as I concur.

For those that are up on this, what is the state of the QBO currently ie strong +ve/westerly, trending that way or what.

regards

BFTP

QBO is +ve (westerly) and growing in strength in the middle stratosphere. Any easterly component has more or less been flushed out now. Westerly QBO is illustrated as the positive anomaly in the tropical atmospheric chart below