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Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

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A new thread for discussing winter 2010/11 whether you want a Feb 1998 Bartlett or Jan 1987 easterly :)

Thanks. :)

Old thread:

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This winter isnt looking good for us cold lovers...was loooking foward to a winter like last....especially with all the forecast by people on here saying at least as bad as last year.....I wonder what that weather geek thinks of netweathers forecast

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This winter isnt looking good for us cold lovers...was loooking foward to a winter like last....especially with all the forecast by people on here saying at least as bad as last year.....I wonder what that weather geek thinks of netweathers forecast

i wouldnt go as far to say that, i just think the emphasis will be on quieter conditions if the forecasts are correct, more fog and frost than frequent snow, and perhaps a fair few ice days. itll probably feel seasonal enough, and beats zonality for me anyday :)

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the metO are going for a mild november,

UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Nov 2010 to Saturday 20 Nov 2010:

After an unsettled start, much of the UK will see near or slightly below average rainfall. Most places will see a mix of showers and longer spells of rain, usual for November, but also a good deal of sunshine in between. Temperatures are expected to be mild for the time of year much of the time.

Updated: 1213 on Fri 22 Oct 2010

Doesnt seem to be any impending coldness for us any time soon. How does this bode for the predicted cold december? Any thoughts anyone?

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I can see a high is being placed over France/Spain area, should mean a possibly S'ly dominated November. Question is, will it stick for December, or will it be a complete reversal, like last year?

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Doesnt seem to be any impending coldness for us any time soon. How does this bode for the predicted cold december? Any thoughts anyone?

None whatsoever. If you recall last winter we didn't (really) see any wintry conditions till the 17th December. October/November/first half December were all mild and wet. 

If anything it's better to have the mild wet windy weather now, usually patterns don't persist for more than a month.  

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I found this an interesting read. I will be curious to read tomorrow's link. I will post when it becomes available.

http://icecap.us/ima.../2009vs1997.pdf

yes, interesting, well reasoned, to be continued!

thank you

It might be an idea if we could persuade Paul to put at the top of this thread?

No one, professional or amateur, has ever found any correlation of significance in sufficient of the many drivers/teleconnections/past charts, that suggests that the weather pattern in October has any relevance to what winter may bring, or indeed any relevance to winter from what November is.

Just to highlight to people new to the forum.

Have a look at what the end of November/early December showed in 2009 and how much relevance that had to the very cold and snoy (for some) spell in December and January.

Or have a look at early December 1962 and how that winter turned out?

That is only two instances and for it to be scientific one must take those occasions where it did the opposite but I can assure everyone that in 40 years in the Met O I never found any correlation of one month in autumn to winter nor did I ever read of anyone finding different.

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yes, interesting, well reasoned, to be continued!

thank you

It might be an idea if we could persuade Paul to put at the top of this thread?

No one, professional or amateur, has ever found any correlation of significance in sufficient of the many drivers/teleconnections/past charts, that suggests that the weather pattern in October has any relevance to what winter may bring, or indeed any relevance to winter from what November is.

Just to highlight to people new to the forum.

Have a look at what the end of November/early December showed in 2009 and how much relevance that had to the very cold and snoy (for some) spell in December and January.

Or have a look at early December 1962 and how that winter turned out?

That is only two instances and for it to be scientific one must take those occasions where it did the opposite but I can assure everyone that in 40 years in the Met O I never found any correlation of one month in autumn to winter nor did I ever read of anyone finding different.

blummin eck man...chill out,the guy has got a right to his irrational thinking

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blummin eck man...chill out,the guy has got a right to his irrational thinking

Haha! Telling JH to chill out is like trying to tell Speedy Gonzales to get a move on! His post was calm and provided a balanced and informed (and supportive of the original poster) view. 

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blummin eck man...chill out,the guy has got a right to his irrational thinking

 

In relation to John Holmes post I found it informative, providing numerous examples of where there isn't any correlation between a mild November (etc) and a cold winter. The post was perfectly 'chill'ed out. 

It is very common for anyone to believe there is a correlation between seasons, on many occasions memebers have asked this question, there is nothing 'irrational' about it!

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the metO are going for a mild november,

UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Nov 2010 to Saturday 20 Nov 2010:

After an unsettled start, much of the UK will see near or slightly below average rainfall. Most places will see a mix of showers and longer spells of rain, usual for November, but also a good deal of sunshine in between. Temperatures are expected to be mild for the time of year much of the time.

Updated: 1213 on Fri 22 Oct 2010

Doesnt seem to be any impending coldness for us any time soon. How does this bode for the predicted cold december? Any thoughts anyone?

I wouldn't worry about a mild Nov affecting how December will turn out Bobbydog. Last November was between 1.5 and 2.5°c above the 71-2000 average :D

as well as being wet and windy but we all know what Dec 2009 turned out like :D :D

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very cold

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I wouldn't worry about a mild Nov affecting how December will turn out Bobbydog. Last November was between 1.5 and 2.5°c above the 71-2000 average :D

as well as being wet and windy but we all know what Dec 2009 turned out like :D :D

Yeah, a milder November might not be too far off the mark is the CFS Pressure Anomalies are anything to go by..

post-7073-001491800 1287780007_thumb.gif

Northern blocking never really gets going until December according to that chart, which would tie in nicely with Net-Weathers winter forecast.

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yes, interesting, well reasoned, to be continued!

thank you

It might be an idea if we could persuade Paul to put at the top of this thread?

No one, professional or amateur, has ever found any correlation of significance in sufficient of the many drivers/teleconnections/past charts, that suggests that the weather pattern in October has any relevance to what winter may bring, or indeed any relevance to winter from what November is.

Just to highlight to people new to the forum.

Have a look at what the end of November/early December showed in 2009 and how much relevance that had to the very cold and snoy (for some) spell in December and January.

Or have a look at early December 1962 and how that winter turned out?

That is only two instances and for it to be scientific one must take those occasions where it did the opposite but I can assure everyone that in 40 years in the Met O I never found any correlation of one month in autumn to winter nor did I ever read of anyone finding different.

If we could just distill your experience across the whole of NW........

blummin eck man...chill out,the guy has got a right to his irrational thinking

Young man, you have a lot to learn!!! Especially from someone like JH.

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Posted · Hidden by Osbourne One-Nil, October 23, 2010 - direspectful, un-called for.
Hidden by Osbourne One-Nil, October 23, 2010 - direspectful, un-called for.

In relation to John Holmes post I found it informative, providing numerous examples of where there isn't any correlation between a mild November (etc) and a cold winter. The post was perfectly 'chill'ed out.

It is very common for anyone to believe there is a correlation between seasons, on many occasions memebers have asked this question, there is nothing 'irrational' about it!

yeah,you say it like it is

mew ,mew.,mew mew..................sory i am mentally unbalanced

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Respect the experienced!

sometimes (nothing personal) i cant believe how some post downers about the experts, you who r guilty of this may only be joking, but please respect them they are our teachers!

Anyway about the mild period of november..winter starts 1st december, and winter weather can come earlier of course, but it can also be warmer pre-winter and it does not mean mild winter, the atlantic is full of ex-hurricanes/storms energy, towards the end of november this should settle down.

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yeah,you say it like it is

mew ,mew.,mew mew..................sory i am mentally unbalanced

another troll joins net weather.

anyway i enjoyed the pdf post was very intresting only this about it was it would have been nice to see more years put into the idears,

but i have a feeling that theres alot in this post that makes perfect sense.

and indeed i was guilty recently for moaning about talk of a bartlet but thats only because they are incredibly hard to shift once settled in,

bit like last winters greenland heights.

but last winter was one that everyone is hoping for a repeat of and i think its very unlikely but as john say october novermber weather does not have any connection with winters outcome.

62 was mild then december it got very cold infact it was very similar to last winter.

until then were going to have to put up with the prozac moments lol.

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another troll joins net weather.

anyway i enjoyed the pdf post was very intresting only this about it was it would have been nice to see more years put into the idears,

but i have a feeling that theres alot in this post that makes perfect sense.

and indeed i was guilty recently for moaning about talk of a bartlet but thats only because they are incredibly hard to shift once settled in,

bit like last winters greenland heights.

but last winter was one that everyone is hoping for a repeat of and i think its very unlikely but as john say october novermber weather does not have any connection with winters outcome.

62 was mild then december it got very cold infact it was very similar to last winter.

until then were going to have to put up with the prozac moments lol.

Wouldn't it be bliss if in years to come folk would moan about not being able to get rid of a "greenlett" high? :lol:

I'm glad next week is going to be zonal, it makes me a bit nervous when we start to get wintery looking charts now, at least it will get this zonal period out of the way by say...mid november? in time for the fun to start.

Well, that was my theory for last year and it seemed to work.

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yes, interesting, well reasoned, to be continued!

thank you

It might be an idea if we could persuade Paul to put at the top of this thread?

No one, professional or amateur, has ever found any correlation of significance in sufficient of the many drivers/teleconnections/past charts, that suggests that the weather pattern in October has any relevance to what winter may bring, or indeed any relevance to winter from what November is.

Just to highlight to people new to the forum.

Have a look at what the end of November/early December showed in 2009 and how much relevance that had to the very cold and snoy (for some) spell in December and January.

Or have a look at early December 1962 and how that winter turned out?

That is only two instances and for it to be scientific one must take those occasions where it did the opposite but I can assure everyone that in 40 years in the Met O I never found any correlation of one month in autumn to winter nor did I ever read of anyone finding different.

This is very true, John, and you are wise to mention it again for those who may be joining nw for the first time.

However, there is a link between autumnal Siberian snow cover and wintertime AO strength through stratospheric feedback. For those keeping up to date on c h's excellent thread it will be worth watching the Siberian snow cover and hope that the early season growth continues. I believe that this may have been another contributing factor in last winter of which there where many pointing to cold.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442%282003%29016%3C3917%3AMNHWCR%3E2.0.CO%3B2

c

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This is very true, John, and you are wise to mention it again for those who may be joining nw for the first time.

However, there is a link between autumnal Siberian snow cover and wintertime AO strength through stratospheric feedback. For those keeping up to date on c h's excellent thread it will be worth watching the Siberian snow cover and hope that the early season growth continues. I believe that this may have been another contributing factor in last winter of which there where many pointing to cold.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442%282003%29016%3C3917%3AMNHWCR%3E2.0.CO%3B2

c

I remember GP commenting on the ozone in the upper atmosphere aiding blocking last winter, this winter with La Nina in play the blocking may be harder to come by, but what do people make of the current ozone situation - I'm certainly no expert on this - so would be really interested to hear some thoughts from those that have look into this in more depth.

The link below shows the ozone situation at the moment - which on the face of it may be looks promising for Scandinavian blocking?

http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/dailyMaps

http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/dailyMaps?language=e&today=20101022&srcf=0&ago=1&source=all&mvdt=-1&analysis=de&region=n

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I remember GP commenting on the ozone in the upper atmosphere aiding blocking last winter, this winter with La Nina in play the blocking may be harder to come by, but what do people make of the current ozone situation - I'm certainly no expert on this - so would be really interested to hear some thoughts from those that have look into this in more depth.

The link below shows the ozone situation at the moment - which on the face of it may be looks promising for Scandinavian blocking?

http://exp-studies.t...i-bin/dailyMaps

http://exp-studies.t...sis=de&region=n

I'm no doubt being very thick here but could you go into a little more detail as to how ozone aids blocking. Ta.

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yes, interesting, well reasoned, to be continued!

thank you

It might be an idea if we could persuade Paul to put at the top of this thread?

No one, professional or amateur, has ever found any correlation of significance in sufficient of the many drivers/teleconnections/past charts, that suggests that the weather pattern in October has any relevance to what winter may bring, or indeed any relevance to winter from what November is.

Just to highlight to people new to the forum.

Have a look at what the end of November/early December showed in 2009 and how much relevance that had to the very cold and snoy (for some) spell in December and January.

Or have a look at early December 1962 and how that winter turned out?

That is only two instances and for it to be scientific one must take those occasions where it did the opposite but I can assure everyone that in 40 years in the Met O I never found any correlation of one month in autumn to winter nor did I ever read of anyone finding different.

Thanks for that, John...What a breath of fresh air! It's what countless meteorologists have been saying for years. Why does it so often fall on deaf ears?

Please, everyone: listen to (and learn from) those who know??

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If there was a link between weather patterns in autumn and winter, it would have been sussed centuries ago.

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This is very true, John, and you are wise to mention it again for those who may be joining nw for the first time.

However, there is a link between autumnal Siberian snow cover and wintertime AO strength through stratospheric feedback. For those keeping up to date on c h's excellent thread it will be worth watching the Siberian snow cover and hope that the early season growth continues. I believe that this may have been another contributing factor in last winter of which there where many pointing to cold.

http://journals.amet...CR%3E2.0.CO%3B2

c

tks for that link-a good read over the weekend for me

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