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Somerset Squall

Tropical Depression 17W

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Another tropical depression has formed in the West Pacific, in the far east of the basin, around 20N, 156E. Convection has built towards an increasingly well defined LLC, prompting the upgrade. Intensity is currently 30kts.

17W's future is not looking long. Conditions rapidly deteriorate to the cyclone's northwest, with higher shear and drier air being present here. Both these factors may well stop 17W intensifying any further (JTWC indicates no strengthening from 30kts in the initial forecast) and could cause dissipation of the depression in the next day or so. However, if convection increases near the LLC instead of mostly residing to the southwestern quadrant, then 17W could briefly become a tropical storm before conditions become hostile.

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17W has remained in a steady state over the last 24 hours. The LLC remains well defined with sustained winds of 30kts, but the bulk of the convection is still sheared southwest of this centre. 17W is in a similar situation to TD16W to the west, except the conditions aren't expected to improve long term. 17W is moving west-northwestwards currently but is expected to swing northeastwards into a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north. 17W may briefly become a tropical storm as it moves under the ridge axis and shear eases temporarily, before being torn apart by the mid-lattitude westerlies as the system accelerates northeastwards.

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Strong shear and dry air has stripped 17W of all it's convection, and therefore the system no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone. Regeneration is not anticipated as conditions are expected to remain hostile.

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