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Winter Forecast Now Online


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Thanks! It's good to be back!

Farnham in Surrey. My short commute takes me along the north Downs ridge.

Nice area good summer weather usually. It will be all eyes open for any 'Beast from the East then!' :)

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

The more research I do into the forthcoming weather patterns for this winter Stewart, the more I see how you have arrived at your conclusions. The MJO composites for winter months with an MEI of less than -0.5 make for desperate viewing for snow lovers. I see long periods of settled weather with the occasional Atlantic burst pushing through.

As we get closer to winter, do you see any reason to modify your forecast? I expect though, that your confidence in your original forecast may have even increased.

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

Thanks Ed.

Considering this was our first attempt to go early (much of the work was done in late September / early October), I am pleased with progress thus far in the lead up to the start.

One of the main predications is a cooling of the polar stratosphere into December so that looks promising going forward into January and February (although not for coldies I suspect). Also promising, the colder pattern to start December as this was the month singled out for the coldest weather.

What hasn't gone to plan ? Well, the dropping off in La Nina (including some degree of atmospheric cooperation) was one unexpected evolution although I suspect that during December angular momentum (which is my key value of La Nina) will begin to drop significantly. If it doesn't, the forecast will begin to come under pressure.

I should add that the anologue package used for November was pretty good at picking the ridge development over Canada and migration into the Atlantic. The continued evolution of the modelling in keeping this ridge is very much in line with this.

Edited by Glacier Point
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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge

Gees everytime i read your forecasts chiono and GP i get more and more depressed for the winter prospects :lol: looks like it may well be a case of making the most of the upcoming cold spell before an atlantic high dominates our weather for large portions of the winter giving settled average and dull conditions?

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Gees everytime i read your forecasts chiono and GP i get more and more depressed for the winter prospects :lol: looks like it may well be a case of making the most of the upcoming cold spell before an atlantic high dominates our weather for large portions of the winter giving settled average and dull conditions?

Aside from my method I think we will see conditions conducive to a prevalent -ve NAO set up even in deep winter. We know that doesn't guarantee cold for UK and Ireland but it certainly helps. I don't think the jet will allow for a sinking HP scenario. NW LRF is holding up well and for such and early shout very impressively too. I do get a sneaky feeling that GP will be watching the Nina state carefully because the hints are there for the latter part of winter forecast to be pressurised at this early stage.

BFTP

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Late winter ie February usually sees anticyclonic weather dominate, the atlantic usually quietens down by February, February is one of the driest months of the year on average and blocking patterns more likely, in my opinion blocking patterns in late November are an excellent precursor to a cold winter, i expect February to see a very noteworthy cold spell maybe the coldest of the whole winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Thanks Ed.

Considering this was our first attempt to go early (much of the work was done in late September / early October), I am pleased with progress thus far in the lead up to the start.

One of the main predications is a cooling of the polar stratosphere into December so that looks promising going forward into January and February (although not for coldies I suspect). Also promising, the colder pattern to start December as this was the month singled out for the coldest weather.

What hasn't gone to plan ? Well, the dropping off in La Nina (including some degree of atmospheric cooperation) was one unexpected evolution although I suspect that during December angular momentum (which is my key value of La Nina) will begin to drop significantly. If it doesn't, the forecast will begin to come under pressure.

I should add that the anologue package used for November was pretty good at picking the ridge development over Canada and migration into the Atlantic. The continued evolution of the modelling in keeping this ridge is very much in line with this.

I was considering preparing a winter forecast this year but having looked into it I have decided that it would be very similar to yours and I would just get accused of copying!!

The only differences that I would suggest would be more significant zonal bursts in January in between the mid latitude blocking, and a cold end to February (with a cold March to follow).

What I have found out is that the more you get to grips with forecasting, the more that one needs to mould together conflicting factors that not knowing about would make the job a bit easier (and probably less accurate).

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

What I have found out is that the more you get to grips with forecasting, the more that one needs to mould together conflicting factors that not knowing about would make the job a bit easier (and probably less accurate).

oh so very true mate-the same with short range forecasting 1-15 days believe me

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

With the forecast about to go live in 7 days, I thought it might be worth reviewing the analogue package and CFS forecast for December pressure anomalies:

post-2478-0-78083400-1290631792_thumb.jp

post-2478-0-28238900-1290631842_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

^? whats that puma2010, thats in the stratos thread to..?

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)

I notice those who have prepared 'a winter forecast' have predicted conditions right out to February, in some cases even March. Well done to those who predicted a cold spell at the end of November.

February is now 2-3 months away.

Therefore, why have was the current SEVERE cold spell not predicted 2-3 months back -(September)?

This gives reason to think that predictions for February now are very unlikely to occur.

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

However, back in August the pattern was being predicted...

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/63387-model-output-discussion/page__st__476__p__1848836#entry1848836

The severity of the cold is extreme and not to be glossed over. Without the pattern however, you cannot have the cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Forest Hall)

GP

This is nealry the coldest Nov into Dec spell on record. Such an extreme should have been predicted.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

GP

This is nealry the coldest Nov into Dec spell on record. Such an extreme should have been predicted.

Perhaps you would like to give up a bit of your time FP and have a go.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

GP

This is nearly the coldest Nov into Dec spell on record. Such an extreme should have been predicted.

perhaps you have not been watching very closely?

Most lrf outputs mentioned a cold spell, just how cold is impossible to say more than about 3-4 days in advance-this was done by most forecasters.

UK Met have been, to me, incredibly consistent in predicting this cold from 5 November.

Would anyone saying a week before this actually started that it would be the coldest snowiest for many parts have helped you?

Would you or anyone else have believed that forecast?

Edited by johnholmes
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  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

Both continue to suggest that the Brewer Dobson Circulation is weakening and this decreases the potential for high latitude blocking into January and February.

December verification:

Colder than normal - correctly forecast although the depth of the cold was not.

Drier than normal - correctly forecast (England and Wales 39% of monthly average according to Philip Eden).

Pressure to be higher to the west - correctly forecast (see 500hPa plot below depicting ridges in the Pacific and Atantic).

post-2478-0-05133700-1294646763_thumb.jp

Moving forward, I'm very happy with our call for a much more average January temperature wise and increasingly the prospects for average or milder February.

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