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Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Halifax, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Halifax, West Yorkshire

These are the reasons that it will be the coldest and snowiest winter since 1683-84, I think it could possibly be worse.

La Nina - Which gives cold weather and very snowy weather

Gulf Stream - It makes us warmer, but now it's gone, we will always get heavy snow each winter and it'll make our climate like Russia

Jet Stream - It is in Spain this winter, so we will get Arctic and Siberian winds all the time

And other things like NAO and stuff.

I think the CET in December will be -3.1C

January -5.3C

February -5.8C

I have about 90% confidence in December and January and 80% in February.

smile.gif

If this happens, I'll eat my shoe. :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Northumberland
  • Location: Northumberland

The Gulf Stream hasn't moved south, but it has been greatly weakened over the past several months according to NOAA and US Navy ocean models.

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest

Here are two comparisons from August and September last year which show several ocean currents including the Brazil Current, the Caribbean current, the NAD, the Canary current and the Norway current which now either cease to exist or have been greatly weakened

http://img201.images...100f024natl.png

http://i82.photobuck...urr20090820.png

I by no means believe BP could cause this, people tend to put the blame on somebody because it is convenient. Besides the Loop current is one current which still appears to be working when it is clear the damage appears to be done elsewhere some several thousand miles from the Gulf of Mexico. I am actually quite mystified that nobody is factoring this into their winter forecasts since the gulf stream/NAD is the UK's central heating system. I also believe the SST data from the models is wrong, there is no way they could remain at the norm with this apparent disruption to the ocean circulation, and NASA satellite data confirms this below which is very similar to the Data on Netweather Extra.

http://ghrsst.jpl.na...ges/amsre-1.jpg

As usual with anything weather related the media and the Met Office wont say anything until the effects are imminently felt.

I dont see how people can deny these facts, but it does make things difficult when we have people all over the internet bent on blaming BP for something of this scale which makes no sense whatsoever.

http://ukclimateproj.../view/2090/517/

Edited by eyeofthestorm
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

BOBBYDOGS WINTER FORECAST:

i think this winter wil be cold. my theory being based on winter usually being colder than other seasons. compared to july, december will be freezing! so will january and february. many will wonder what i have based my scientific theories on, but it is quite simple- CARLSBERG THEORY!

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Posted
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset

The Gulf Stream hasn't moved south, but it has been greatly weakened over the past several months according to NOAA and US Navy ocean models.

http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest

Here are two comparisons from August and September last year which show several ocean currents including the Brazil Current, the Caribbean current, the NAD, the Canary current and the Norway current which now either cease to exist or have been greatly weakened

http://img201.images...100f024natl.png

http://i82.photobuck...urr20090820.png

I by no means believe BP could cause this, people tend to put the blame on somebody because it is convenient. Besides the Loop current is one current which still appears to be working when it is clear the damage appears to be done elsewhere some several thousand miles from the Gulf of Mexico. I am actually quite mystified that nobody is factoring this into their winter forecasts since the gulf stream/NAD is the UK's central heating system. I also believe the SST data from the models is wrong, there is no way they could remain at the norm with this apparent disruption to the ocean circulation, and NASA satellite data confirms this below which is very similar to the Data on Netweather Extra.

http://ghrsst.jpl.na...ges/amsre-1.jpg

As usual with anything weather related the media and the Met Office wont say anything until the effects are imminently felt.

I dont see how people can deny these facts, but it does make things difficult when we have people all over the internet bent on blaming BP for something of this scale which makes no sense whatsoever.

http://ukclimateproj.../view/2090/517/

Thanks for these links EOTS and apologies if this is off topic. (mods please feel free to move my post across to the NAD thread - my comments relate to the links which EOTS has kindly sourced)

I think many of us are pondering the the reasons for changes in surface flow speed / circulation and the likely effect upon sea surface temperatures. These may or may not affect our climate and may or may not depend upon surface winds..

It would however appear logical that actual sea surface temperatures wil impact our weather in some way and, unless I am mistaken, these temperatures are now showing a marked reduction in warmth around NW Scotland compared to recent years. The effect on waters off the SW Coast of UK appears less distinct.

Do others agree or does the effect of NAD only show up clearly later in winter?

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

These are the reasons that it will be the coldest and snowiest winter since 1683-84, I think it could possibly be worse.

La Nina - Which gives cold weather and very snowy weather

Gulf Stream - It makes us warmer, but now it's gone, we will always get heavy snow each winter and it'll make our climate like Russia

Jet Stream - It is in Spain this winter, so we will get Arctic and Siberian winds all the time

And other things like NAO and stuff.

I think the CET in December will be -3.1C

January -5.3C

February -5.8C

I have about 90% confidence in December and January and 80% in February.

smile.gif

Whilst I would enjoy such a cold winter I do have to raise a few points.

1. La Nina doesn't always mean a cold winter neither does it mean a mild winter. This is just one variable amongst many others.

2. Gulf stream has not shut down.

3. Position of Jet stream varies.

4. NAO is only the pressure difference between Iceland and Azores. At this stage we cannot tell what will happen. Even a prolonged negative phase of the NAO prior to winter doesn't mean it will remain negative. This could easily change to a prolonged positive phase during the winter.

At the moment we shall just have to wait and see and to be honest the uncertainity makes it even more exciting. Whilst I respect the knowledge of forecasters like Joe B I can think of many times when his monthly forecasts have been way off. Nobody can accurately predict months ahead because it doesn't matter how knowledgeable you are, nobody fully understands all the variables and how these interact with each other.

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Hmm Newiceage, although I agree that this Winte will be worse than last years, possibly worse than 1978/79 I doubt it will be THAT extreme, and to point out, the gulf stream can not actually shut down! It can ofcourse weaken! If you look at what the weather outlook have to say, they predict that a major Winter pattern this year will be high pressure over Scandinavia, bringing us cold Easterly winds, and with Russia looking to be colder than average (and their Winters are sever by our standards ANYWAY!) we could get some particularly potent air, also don't Easterlies bring moisture as well? Heavy snowfalls! So, not quite as sever as THAT but a particularly cold Winter, I think slowly beginning mid-late November (so earlier than last year) ooh, before I forget, what are peoples views on having a January event similiar to that of 1987, when there was ALOT of snowfall and it was very cold, but lasting longer than it did back then? This is another thing the weather outlook predict.:D

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Posted
  • Location: lootons, bedfordshires, somewheres in SE Englands & E Anglia
  • Location: lootons, bedfordshires, somewheres in SE Englands & E Anglia

Thees winters is will be coldest freeeeezingist snowiests fluffiest arteeec blasteeesh winters evas and the me is cannot waits for first whiffies of snows me's achings for its infact. HOPPY HOLLOWEENS TO ALLS AUTUMNS IS ENDS AND WEEEEENTERS IS STARTS YIPSEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: near Great Yarmouth
  • Location: near Great Yarmouth

Thees winters is will be coldest freeeeezingist snowiests fluffiest arteeec blasteeesh winters evas and the me is cannot waits for first whiffies of snows me's achings for its infact. HOPPY HOLLOWEENS TO ALLS AUTUMNS IS ENDS AND WEEEEENTERS IS STARTS YIPSEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!

yeah but is it going to snow in Carlisle?

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Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

yeah but is it going to snow in Carlisle?

Dont you mean.... Is it going to snow in Cardiff :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

According to GP it looks like we should write off this winter and next summer, he seems very confident regarding this winter.

I see what you're doing there; the old reverse psychology routine - staving off disappointment by expecting little from this Winter. So this way any snow that you do get is a pleasant surprise.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Thees winters is will be coldest freeeeezingist snowiests fluffiest arteeec blasteeesh winters evas and the me is cannot waits for first whiffies of snows me's achings for its infact. HOPPY HOLLOWEENS TO ALLS AUTUMNS IS ENDS AND WEEEEENTERS IS STARTS YIPSEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!

good grief-have you got your Xmas tree up yet?

welcome back Mr Crazy Snowfan

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Finally, the increasing colder polar stratosphere and upper level westerlies should allow for polar flow to sink the block from mid January onwards. Basically we will have a pattern which wants to go cold but can't - a classic signal for anticyclonic conditions across the mid latitudes.

I think this part for me is key, I think the block will try to hold place but as polar jet becomes stronger as the winter goes along I do think eventually we will get into an increasingly mild flow towards the backend of the winter. The key uncertainty is December, most La Nina's seem to have a decent cold spell in late November and any short attempt at warming in the upper levels will be enough IMO to give us some decent cold, though whether or not it comes in the form of an actual cold shot or whether its only enough to move the High into a position that helps inversions to develop is way too early.

I wouldn't be surprised if in practice we end up with a slightly milder 05-06 type pattern...which would be ok though clearly not as exciting as last winter...I don't think we are going to have a very mild winter either way, unless the polar jet is a little south of the position I'm expecting and shunts everything into effectivly a WSW/SW dominated set-up.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

The winter of negative:

Negative NAO:

Negative AO:

Negative ENSO:

Negative PDO (biggest for me, negative in 60s, 70s - The good ol' winters, most positive recently, and dipping in 07/08, since then, 2 colder winters):

But a slightly positive AMO.

Interesting signals, and the Polar Jet and Stratosphere temperature are still up there for grabs, along with the Jet and Gulf Stream.

But it'll snow in Telford...

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I think this part for me is key, I think the block will try to hold place but as polar jet becomes stronger as the winter goes along I do think eventually we will get into an increasingly mild flow towards the backend of the winter. The key uncertainty is December, most La Nina's seem to have a decent cold spell in late November and any short attempt at warming in the upper levels will be enough IMO to give us some decent cold, though whether or not it comes in the form of an actual cold shot or whether its only enough to move the High into a position that helps inversions to develop is way too early.

I wouldn't be surprised if in practice we end up with a slightly milder 05-06 type pattern...which would be ok though clearly not as exciting as last winter...I don't think we are going to have a very mild winter either way, unless the polar jet is a little south of the position I'm expecting and shunts everything into effectivly a WSW/SW dominated set-up.

I'm awaiting initial draft from RJS but a snippet is that an 08/09 temp winter is certainly in The offing with a potential big sting in the tail.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

A belated thanks to GP and the Netweather team for making such a detailed winter forecast available again this year :)

Some have mentioned that going for a high pressure dominated set-up is a 'safe option' which would be a fair point if this is all the forecast said, but it's worth remembering the forecast goes into a lot more detail including where the high pressure is due to be centred each month, as well as temperature and rainfall predictions. What is really interesting (and very useful for those like me who want to learn more about how forecasting works) is the level of detail in describing the atmospheric synoptics likely to drive this winter's weather pattern - La Nina, sea surface temperature anomalies etc.

Anyway keep up the good work and I'll be looking forward to reading the posts and forecasts on here throughout the winter!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

The NW Autumn/Winter forecast is due to be updated today including February. Anyone know what time it's due?

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

Hello everyone,

Winter returneth and so doth West is Best! Interesting NW forecast: not as cold as previous two years. I'm not altogether convinced we will have another cold one I must say, but that's based on little more than a hunch at the moment. It has been a fascinating year so far with the chances of the annual CET ending up cooler than for a long well. Another nice sharp cold snap coming up should peg back the mild start to November.

Anyway, nice to be back on here. May have to change my long-established profile name as I am now far from living in the west having moved with a big job promotion. Good to be back and looking forward to the coming winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

Hello everyone,

Winter returneth and so doth West is Best! Interesting NW forecast: not as cold as previous two years. I'm not altogether convinced we will have another cold one I must say, but that's based on little more than a hunch at the moment. It has been a fascinating year so far with the chances of the annual CET ending up cooler than for a long well. Another nice sharp cold snap coming up should peg back the mild start to November.

Anyway, nice to be back on here. May have to change my long-established profile name as I am now far from living in the west having moved with a big job promotion. Good to be back and looking forward to the coming winter.

Big job promotion............... Must be senior caretaker in the new school then :drinks:

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Haha - something like that :whistling:

Hello again WIB,nice to see you back! The suspense is killing me. Where have you moved to?

Edited by Blitzen
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Thanks! It's good to be back!

Farnham in Surrey. My short commute takes me along the north Downs ridge.

why not put it in your avatar for us all WIB-thanks

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Thanks! It's good to be back!

Farnham in Surrey. My short commute takes me along the north Downs ridge.

Hi Richard

Welcome back mate. How about SIB? Welcome to Surrey old bean

BFTP

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