Winter Forecast Now Online

[Eugene]

Yes a promising winter forecast, i always like to hear of very dry winters because that means lots of HP around and that usually means cold in the winter, not sure the anti cold gas guzzlers will be as happy though

[Partholon]

A potentially dismal winter for those of us in Eire if his forecast is correct- although, while he may have the overall pattern correct, it's impossible for him to know exactly where the high in December will be situated- a couple of hundred miles further to the Northwest of Ireland, could make all the difference for us. Anyway as much as i was initially disappointed reading his forecast, fair play to him for sticking his neck out- it's easy to be hurlers on the ditch(critics, who just shout he's wrong, without producing their own forecast to say why he's wrong)

[Glacier Point]

We will be issuing a detailed forecast and video over the next 2 weeks.

However, two little nuggets here:-

Temperatures over the tropical stratosphere have broken above average.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mb2525.gif

The westerly QBO continues to strengthen.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/glaam.sig.qbo.90day.gif

Both continue to suggest that the Brewer Dobson Circulation is weakening and this decreases the potential for high latitude blocking into January and February.

[nick sussex]

We will be issuing a detailed forecast and video over the next 2 weeks.

However, two little nuggets here:-

Temperatures over the tropical stratosphere have broken above average.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mb2525.gif

The westerly QBO continues to strengthen.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/glaam.sig.qbo.90day.gif

Both continue to suggest that the Brewer Dobson Circulation is weakening and this decreases the potential for high latitude blocking into January and February.

Thanks for the update GP, were these factors taken into account in the winter forecast in terms of the latest info that might need to be factored into the normal update you make later or was this always likely to be the case or will this just mean that inline with the forecast any blocking will likely be mid latitude?

And finally do I still need to order extra wood in for the fire given the projections for down here?

[Glacier Point]

Yes Nick, this represents a major part of the forecast and a key assumption.

As for SW France, I think you are best placed to enjoy the cold this winter.

[nick sussex]

Yes Nick, this represents a major part of the forecast and a key assumption.

As for SW France, I think you are best placed to enjoy the cold this winter.

Thanks GP

Well its certainly been an eventful few years down here in terms of weather, topped off by freak snow here in early May. We're only 1,250 feet above sea level here so that was amazing.

Last winter was very dry here with plenty of frost and several snowfalls so I'd be happy with the same again, it can be quite bizarre here with the mountains, the early March storm drove an exceptional foehn effect where the temp rose from 13c to 26c in about 30 minutes!

Sorry I'm rambling! thanks again GP.

[chionomaniac]

Yes Nick, this represents a major part of the forecast and a key assumption.

As for SW France, I think you are best placed to enjoy the cold this winter.

I think that the stratosphere will be very different to last year, hey GP?. We may get an early Final warming leading to a cold spring if we are lucky, but SSW's are few and far between in strong La Nina Years with a wQBO.

[Don]

Yes Nick, this represents a major part of the forecast and a key assumption.

As for SW France, I think you are best placed to enjoy the cold this winter.

Right, January holiday to SW France it is then! :lol:

Edited October 19, 2010 by Don

[Cheshire Freeze]

RE mid latitude blocking- sounds like a recipe for northerly topplers and feeble easterlys to me whichever way it's dressed up. I can understand the despondency in some members as after last winter, if that was to occur, hopes may be dashed big time.

[bobbydog]

The Buick swans have arrived 3 weeks early, - they come from siberia so i'm going with their forecast!

[ZONE 51]

The Buick swans have arrived 3 weeks early, - they come from siberia so i'm going with their forecast!

The beswick swans move with the teleconnections/models i think, if that makes sense 0: the Siberia/ Russia freeze should follow within weeks!

[Glacier Point]

The daily CFS pressure and temperature anomaly forecasts are continuing to re-affirm the forecast set out so far.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

My historical analogues indicate a slightly enhanced precipitation signal for January but the general theme drier than normal over the winter and the CFS also suggets this. Also we have good synergy between forecast pressure anomaly, starting at mid to high latitude in December but becoming centred over or just to the west of the UK in February with slightly milder conditions forecast.

The idea that Iberia will be realtive to normal the coldest place in Europe in winter also looks good according to the CFS.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The daily CFS pressure and temperature anomaly forecasts are continuing to re-affirm the forecast set out so far.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

My historical analogues indicate a slightly enhanced precipitation signal for January but the general theme drier than normal over the winter and the CFS also suggets this. Also we have good synergy between forecast pressure anomaly, starting at mid to high latitude in December but becoming centred over or just to the west of the UK in February with slightly milder conditions forecast.

The idea that Iberia will be realtive to normal the coldest place in Europe in winter also looks good according to the CFS.

Isn't Oct looking wrong re CFS? If Iberia is to be coldest aren't we talking a Mistral set up? Just a general question...

BFTP

Edited October 21, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[phil nw.]

Isn't Oct looking wrong re CFS? If Iberia is to be coldest aren't we talking a Mistral set up? Just a general question...

BFTP

Yes i thought that too Fred.

Certainly no sign of Heights at High Latitudes at present and we are now well into the Month.

I do find that these CFS charts vary week to week.

[charleybean]

I just hope for a little snow over christmas as it's my little boys first christmas and he'll be 10 months. He'd love it. Mind you I wasn't loving the huge amounts of snow and ice last winter as was heavily pregnant and couldn't get anywhere, including the hospital. Please have some snow flurries in Berkshire!!

[MR EXTREMES]

i gotta bad feeling for this winter i think la nina is gonna ruin the chance of a good cold winter.

[Glacier Point]

I wouldn't worry about the current month that the CFS shows. It has a particular bug at several parts of the month and basically shows the anomaly for the month thus far so may not necessarily reflect what is to come in the next 10 days or so.

[cooling climate]

I wouldn't worry about the current month that the CFS shows. It has a particular bug at several parts of the month and basically shows the anomaly for the month thus far so may not necessarily reflect what is to come in the next 10 days or so.

I find it hard to imagine anyone taking the CFS forcasts seriously whether it is showing hot or cold.

I thought everyone was aware how poor a model it is but obviously not.

[TEITS]

Always look forward to the NW winter forecast and in recent years I feel this has been the most reliable. However I do have a question about Dec because to me it doesn't make much sense.

If a HP is going to be centred to the NW of the UK with NW,ly winds and N,ly interludes then I don't understand how the SE is likely to be coldest. The synoptics I imagine that would make the SE the coldest is when the winds are coming from a E/SE,ly direction. If the winds are from the NW with N,ly interludes then I would of thought the SE along with much of S England would of been the warmest. The coldest would obviously be the far N of Scotland along with the Shetland isles and possibly N Ireland.

Apologies if i've misread this though.

Edited October 21, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[ZONE 51]

i gotta bad feeling for this winter i think la nina is gonna ruin the chance of a good cold winter.

Would'nt be to concerned..

between 1950 and 76 it was mostly la-nina ,with el-nino taking 57-58/65-66/72-73, their was enough cold and snow back then, this winter the solar activity at its lowest for 100yrs, with a record breaking la-nina in the making, its a hard one to forecast this, things can change yes, and GP/TWS would be on to any changes and keep us updated.

[damianslaw]

I'm slightly confused with the comments regarding conditions projected in December. A high to the NW/W would bring in winds from a north westerly/northerly quarter so I don't understand why the SE would see the coldest conditions - they would see the mildest being sheltered and at a southerly location benefitting from dry sunny weather - coastal parts would be exposed to a few wintry showers perhaps.

For the SE to be coldest winds would need to be east/south easterly - this would happen with strong heights to the east not north west.. or indeed dare I say it a euro high..

The synoptics suggested this december align very much with what we saw in 2008 - which was a notably wintry month, the first 10 days being notably cold and snowy. Indeed the forecast looks like the first half could be very similiar to dec 2008/jan 2009 and the latter half similiar perhaps to what we saw in 2008. I'd be very happy with a winter which sees similiar weather to dec 2008, jan 2009 and feb 2008 - plenty of cold dry sunny frosty and at times snowy weather but nothing as sustained nationwide in terms of cold and snow as we saw in the period 17 dec- 15 jan or in early feb 09 this is not to say localised conditions in the north at times could be reminscent to the weather we saw in these periods.

Edited October 23, 2010 by damianslaw

[The PIT]

I use the CFS for long Monthly forecasting and would say it's not to bad a month ahead. About 60% success rate. Haven't tried for two months ahead but clearly the accuracy would drop a lot. So I wouldn't get two worried what it shows at this time.

[Cheese Rice]

If a HP is going to be centred to the NW of the UK with NW,ly winds and N,ly interludes then I don't understand how the SE is likely to be coldest. 

Yes I thought the same too, I never got round to posting on this thread. 

 ......

Anyway an interesting forecast, which has obviously had alot  of time & effort and time put into. 

I'm quite surprised by the Winter forecast. The position of the high is very different to where I expect it to be centered over . I'm expecting the any highs to be centered mainly to the south & east of the UK mostly over Europe, heavily influencing the weather over Southern England, -at times- Northern England and to a lesser extent Scotland. Scotland experiencing the brunt of what I expect to be an Atlantic driven fairly mild winter.    

Edited October 26, 2010 by 10123

[stewfox]

Always look forward to the NW winter forecast and in recent years I feel this has been the most reliable.

I cant find the old NW forecast in the archives , any links anyone for the last years winter forecast posted in October ?

Edited October 26, 2010 by stewfox

[Isolated Frost]

I cant find the old NW forecast in the archives , any links anyone for the last years winter forecast posted in October ?

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57157-winter-forecast-on-netweather/