Winter Forecast Now Online

[Sunny Android]

Good to see the long range winter forecast. At least you guys have a crack at it, unlike the MetO.

I read the forum comments before the forecast which made it more interesting. Anyway, like the sound of a dry winter here in the west

Edited October 18, 2010 by Sunny Android

[MR EXTREMES]

Everything is uncertain, some things are just more likely than others, and I must say I am surprised at how strong the language used is.

Claiming this winter will "very likely" be very dry (never mind next spring!) seems a touch sensational and unscientific.

I also noted with interest that CFS forecasts were considered - given their recent ,and in fact general, poor perfotmance, I would think that they would have been largely ignored.

bit harsh.

i think its a very likely outcome and i reckon there be pretty close to there forecast well done net weather.

[MR EXTREMES]

Im not sure why you think its 'safe' to predict an average, dry winter over any other type? Whatever you forecast when its long range you are always 'sticking your neck out' as its by no means easy. Anyone can say 'it'll be wetter than average' or 'there will be heavy snowfalls', but unless you show your reasoning then its nothing but a guess.

Also, 1995/96, 1996/97 and 2005/06 were all recent winters drier than average following summers drier than average.

yep thats been my point they were also active hurricaine seasons.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Thanks for the forecast GP.

If truth be told i was hoping the La Nina was going to weaken a little.We have quite a few factors running in our favour but the worry for me is that a super strong LaNina will over-ride all the other signals and make sustained northern blocking very difficult.

Anyway,thanks once again for the forecast,intersting 3 or 4 months coming up!!

Edited October 18, 2010 by happy days

[KTtom]

Echo what most have said here, possibly not the most exiting winter ahead if it comes to fruition, but personnaly I'm more than happy with dry and hopefully sunny, but above all good to see you 'having a go' after last years success it must have been tempting to leave it much later to issue a winter forecast and take a more reserved approach.

[Mole]

bit harsh.

i think its a very likely outcome and i reckon there be pretty close to there forecast well done net weather.

"Very likely outcome" Don't make me laugh.

Its nothing more than an educated guess.sure it might be close but then again it could be miles out.

With so many winter forecasts coming out now,why these companies don't just admit its an educated guess instead of using words like "will be" or "very likely" is beyond me.

Its just making themselves open to ridicule with their credibilty falling through the floor,if their forecasts turn out to be a long way out.

Edited October 18, 2010 by Mole

[MR EXTREMES]

in my opion the detail hes given!

and the detail he always gives in all of his thoughts,

are excellent to be honest even if it turns out blowtorch i still have huge respect for how deep into the teleconnection he goes and how much effort is puts in.

and in anycase as john would say the devil is in the detail,

so even if its dry dont mean we wont see nothing,

and even if temps are average then it dont mean they wont at times drop well below average.

its an lrf that i feel will be pretty close to correct perhaps under doing cets and snowfall a little,

but the indications point to a normal britsh winter.

rip blowtorch winters:drinks:

"Very likely outcome" Don't make me laugh.

Its nothing more than an educated guess.sure it might be close but then again it could be miles out.

With so many winter forecasts coming out now,why these companies don't just admit its an educated guess instead of using words like "will be" or "very likely" is beyond me.

Its just making themselves open to ridicule with their credibilty falling through the floor,when their forecasts turn out to be a long way out.

ok mole not seen you on here before but look forward to your comments and the end of winter we shall see.

omg forget tamiflu we need prozac for the lrf

Edited October 18, 2010 by badboy657

[stewfox]

Very interesting read.

Any link to last years forecast ?

How much weight is given to 'solar activity' ?

Edited October 18, 2010 by stewfox

[J10]

An excellent foreacst and well explained giving the reasons behind everything. Given the strong La Nina expected , I would be very happy if the forecast was spot on, as previous La Ninas have been very disappointing 1999/2000 and 2007/08). The repeated emphasis on Pressure being higher to our North West is very promising as this gives the chance of some northerly outbreaks and if not decent sunny weather. I also like the chance of dry conditions.

[stewfox]

"Very likely outcome" Don't make me laugh.

Its nothing more than an educated guess.sure it might be close but then again it could be miles out.

With so many winter forecasts coming out now,why these companies don't just admit its an educated guess instead of using words like "will be" or "very likely" is beyond me.

Its just making themselves open to ridicule with their credibilty falling through the floor,if their forecasts turn out to be a long way out.

Can you give me the link to your detailed forcast, I of course would respect it for what it is, a detailed forcast

[Milhouse]

I would be very happy if the winter turned out like the forecast. Whenever theres a northerly we are always a favoured location for show showers and with a bit of luck 'dry' in winter often means sunny which always satisfies me during the dark winter months. Early indications for February sound a lot like 2008 which was lovely. Although as its still a long way away i'm taking it with a pinch of salt. However 'dry' seems to be the common theme.

[NorthantsSnow]

A well explained LRF. Things look finely balanced right now with some factors working in our favour and some against us. But at least the experts don't think it will be a total write off. Winter 07/08 was a hugely disappointing affair and not one I wish to see repeated.

[Guest]

Thanks GP, a great read.

I hope the doubters can come up with their own "detailed forecasts" to back up their own off the cuff guesses.

[shotski]

Looks like a good forecast to me, does this mean that the continent will be dominated by HP and if so will the south east cop it ?

The only bit I didn't understand was if we had HP to our northwest wouldn't this bring mostly north/north ely winds.

[Timmead]

Can you give me the link to your detailed forcast, I of course would respect it for what it is, a detailed forcast

But what is the point of a detailed forecast when there is so much uncertainty?

It's like trying trying to measure the surface temperature of the sun to a tenth of a degree.

Or more bluntly, a waste of time if you take it too seriously.

I for one thought the Met Office had it spot on when they used to do LRFs. Obviously the verification frequency was not great, but at least they assigned approximate probabilities rather than plumping for one outcome and effectively disregarding everything else.

The truth is, know one has a bloody clue how February is going to pan out, so let's just treat this forecast as a bit of fun, which I imagine was the idea.

[in the vale]

But what is the point of a detailed forecast when there is so much uncertainty?

It's like trying trying to measure the surface temperature of the sun to a tenth of a degree.

Or more bluntly, a waste of time if you take it too seriously.

I for one thought the Met Office had it spot on when they used to do LRFs. Obviously the verification frequency was not great, but at least they assigned approximate probabilities rather than plumping for one outcome and effectively disregarding everything else.

The truth is, know one has a bloody clue how February is going to pan out, so let's just treat this forecast as a bit of fun, which I imagine was the idea.

I was trying hard not to get involved in this discussion, but I am sure the guy who has spent no doubt many, many hours using all of his training and experience in meteorology to create this forecast would be quite dismayed to realise someone thinks that it was designed as a 'bit of fun'.  GP's posts are amongst the most respected and widely read posts on this site, and he clearly knows his onions. Respect, please.

Edited October 18, 2010 by in the vale

[Isolated Frost]

Looks like a good forecast to me, does this mean that the continent will be dominated by HP and if so will the south east cop it ?

The only bit I didn't understand was if we had HP to our northwest wouldn't this bring mostly north/north ely winds.

A HP system to the North West gives North Westerlies and Northerlies. As the wind always comes from the HP system.

[Timmead]

I was trying hard not to get involved in this discussion, but I am sure the guy who has spent no doubt many, many hours using all of his training and experience in meteorology to create this forecast would be quite dismayed to realise someone thinks that it was designed as a 'bit of fun'. GP's posts are amongst the most respected and widely read posts on this site, and he clearly knows his onions. Respect, please.

I have no doubt that a lot of thought went into it, but please tell me how it is he is able to do a better job than a legion of professional forecasters at the MO?

The answer, of course, is that he is not. Quite simply, he is taking a (albeit it very well educated) big punt.

The science of LRFs is not well established and involves a lot of educated guesswork.

So I implore you to do as I do, and respect science over guesswork.

[peterf]

yip good read that.lets wait and see how accurate it ends up.

[Isolated Frost]

I have no doubt that a lot of thought went into it, but please tell me how it is he is able to do a better job than a legion of professional forecasters at the MO?

The answer, of course, is that he is not. Quite simply, he is taking a (albeit it very well educated) big punt.

The science of LRFs is not well established and involves a lot of educated guesswork.

So I implore you to do as I do, and respect science over guesswork.

Stewart has noticeably more knowledge than most at the MO for me, he uses real scientific answers and is a genius in meteorology, you really should look at Forecasting Model Discussion. GP has really interesting stuff on there, my understanding of everything has improved ten-fold since I visited his profile and read his comments, I can't say anything apart from he has (for me) got easily more credentials than any 'Professional Forecaster'.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Cool forecast, seems very reasonable, although as an avid astronomer and physicist I would like to know the reasoning behind the statement of "low solar activity" as this year has seen more than the past 2 years as we are now entering the period of "solar maximum" which will peak in 2012. Have you seen the latest Filament? It's larger than the distance Earth to Moon and beyond.

Other than that, it's a good forecast although it wasn't a dry summer for me, and other western parts, it was very wet day in and day out, so I expect a normal or above average for precipitation.

Just my two cents.

[nick sussex]

I have no doubt that a lot of thought went into it, but please tell me how it is he is able to do a better job than a legion of professional forecasters at the MO?

The answer, of course, is that he is not. Quite simply, he is taking a (albeit it very well educated) big punt.

The science of LRFs is not well established and involves a lot of educated guesswork.

So I implore you to do as I do, and respect science over guesswork.

Because he did a better job than the UKMO last winter! Of course a long range forecast is open to many variables which can appear as time goes by. Actually I think some at the UKMO have less knowledge than GP on all the teleconnections and they would do well to offer him a job! Of course its not an exact science and will never be because of chaos theory.

[The watcher]

I have no doubt that a lot of thought went into it, but please tell me how it is he is able to do a better job than a legion of professional forecasters at the MO?

The answer, of course, is that he is not. Quite simply, he is taking a (albeit it very well educated) big punt.

The science of LRFs is not well established and involves a lot of educated guesswork.

So I implore you to do as I do, and respect science over guesswork.

Thats funny, that legion of professional forecasters that called a mild winter last year and a BBQ Summer too?

You know, they have billions of pounds in meterological equipment and still Netweather seems to get more right than they do.

Hell, GP seems to get it right 90% of the time using only teleconnections.

It's not guesswork when you put the effort in, it's a forecast. and forecasts go wrong, just like the MetO's did, but they didn't take it on the chin, no, they decided not to do it anymore they got it wrong so many times.

[Optimus Prime]

Probably the best forecast I've ever read on the internet. The attention to detail was pretty amazing and well thought through.

[Essan]

Thats funny, that legion of professional forecasters that called a mild winter last year and a BBQ Summer too?

I take it you never read their forecasts Presumably you'll judge Stewart's forecast on what the Daily Express says too?

Interestingly, the MetO LRF (or rather the model in which it was based) does seem to be going for a dryer than average winter, based on the October run.