Super Typhoon Megi

[The watcher]

My friend is staying in the Phillipines at the minute, he's actually a member of here but doesn't come on much "The Tornado Researcher", I don't know if he knows much about its strength, he doesn't understand Phillipino. I've asked him to make sure he's in a safe spot, try get a few snaps for us and more importantly, enjoy being in "The Zone" for the first time in his life. Lucky sod.

Thats one hell of a typhoon.

[knocker]

Super typhoon Megi has swept key agricultural areas in northern Philippines on Monday, and may significantly reduce the country's rice output in the current harvest season, reports China's Xinhua news agency.

http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsworld.php?id=536419

[Somerset Squall]

Megi has done remarkably well to emerge over the South China Sea as strong as it is, especially as it has trekked over the Sierra Madre mountain range. Intensity has fallen to 95kts, and convection has slowly decreased this afternoon. However, the eye is still clear to see, and the fact that Megi will be moving over similar conditions that it expirienced before landfall in Luzon suggests the typhoon could be quite quick to re-intensify. The ridge to the north is expected to break down over the next 24hrs sending Megi northwards. The timing of this turn is uncertain, but anywhere from Hainan Island eastwards along the coast of South China need to be very wary of a cat 4 landfall over the next few days.

No doubt the reports of what havoc Megi has inflicted on Luzon will be emerging soon.

[Somerset Squall]

On an important note too, Megi's pressure bottomed out at 885mb. One heck of a storm!!

[Cookie]

eyeing up Hong Kong

[Somerset Squall]

Megi has strengthened slightly to 100kts, making her a cat 3 again. Megi has a large eye with increasing convection surrounding it. Megi is in a favourable environment for further intensification, with low shear, warm sea temps and good radial outflow. Whilst turning north into a weakeness in the ridge, Megi is expected to regain cat 4 status. Hong Kong look to be in the firing line for Megi's second landfall at present.

[Somerset Squall]

11 people dead so far from Megi:

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/10/19/philippines.typhoon/

The article also suggests that although Megi will be moving east of Hainan Island, it will still bring some flooding rains here, to the same areas drenched by 50 inches of rain from Tropical Depression 14W in the first week of October.

[Somerset Squall]

Megi has regained cat 4 status with intensity increasing to 115kts. The eye is slowly shrinking and becoming better defined after the trek over Luzon. A solid ring of convection now surrounds the eye, and banding features remain impressive. Megi is expected to be a mid-range cat 4 at second peak; JTWC currently estimating that Megi will strengthen to 125kts before landfall in S. China. Still a very dangerous typhoon.

Edited October 19, 2010 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

very powerful system and I think its now bigger then it was before

[Cookie]

some really disturbing images coming out from this system of the destruction very sad

image below shows how large this system has got

[Somerset Squall]

Yes, Megi has certainly grown in size over the last day but not in intensity. Megi has been fluctuating between cat 2 and 3 status today, whilst maintaining a large eye. Megi had briefly re-strengthed to cat 4 intensity but found it difficult to maintain this as shear has risen to moderate levels and Megi has gone through some inner core changes resulting in the typhoon becoming much larger. Current intensity is 100kts, but steady weakening should occur over the next day or two as shear continues to elevate. Nevertheless, Megi is still expected to be a typhoon at landfall midway between Hong Kong and the west coast of Taiwan in around 36hrs time.

There has been a lot of damage Cookie but it must be said that the evacuation of people to safe areas has been done remarkably well- mainly due to the advance warning (landfall was forecast days in advance by JTWC). Loss of life is very sad, but the evacuation has limited the death toll to 15, which is remarkable as Megi was a landfalling cat 5.

Edited October 21, 2010 by Somerset Squall

[Coast]

BEIJING — Flights were disrupted, ferry services cut and at least 160,000 people have been evacuated as Typhoon Megi, one of the strongest storms to hit the region in years, headed Friday for southern China. Megi - which killed at least 36 people when it ripped across the Philippines and has left 20 Chinese nationals missing in Taiwan -was expected to make landfall either late Friday or early Saturday in Fujian province. So far authorities in Fujian have evacuated more than 150,000 people from low-lying areas, while 10,000 others have been moved to safer ground in Guangdong.

The State Oceanic Administration issued a yellow storm surge warning, saying waters could exceed the danger levels. Tens of thousands of fishing boats in Fujian and neighbouring Guangdong province were ordered back to port.

"The storm surge could be so devastating that buildings, docks, villages and cities could be destroyed by it," Xinhua news agency quoted Bai Yiping, a senior forecaster at the State Oceanic Administration as saying. At 0300 GMT Friday the storm was located 290 kilometres (180 miles) from the border of Fujian and Guangdong provinces, moving at a speed of up to 10 kilometres an hour, according to China's national weather centre.

The storm was Friday packing maximum sustained winds of 173 kilometres an hour.

www.google.com/hostednews

[Somerset Squall]

Megi weakened to cat 2 last night but became a cat 3 again this morning. Now, Megi has weakened to cat 2 again with intensity down to 90kts. Dry air and shear has significantly reduced the convection and Megi's size, however, the eye has become better defined. As Megi's convective canopy has become smaller, the inner core is more vunerable to the dry air and shear, therefore Megi is expected to be a cat 1 at landfall. As Coast's article highlights however, storm surge and flooding will still be a big problem.

[Somerset Squall]

Megi has made landfall in China and convection has diminshed considerably. All that's left of Megi is a tight swirl of clouds with a few shallow patches of convection. Megi is expected to remain over land, therefore re-generation is not expected.