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Somerset Squall

Super Typhoon Megi

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A disturbance near Yap has rapildy developed overnight and became a tropical depression in the early hours of this morning. Since then, rapid strengthening has occured and the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Megi, with intensity at 45kts.

Megi is located 200 miles northeast Yap, and is set to move northwestwards for the next 48hrs. Thereafter, a ridge to the north of Megi is set to strengthen, flattening the track westwards towards Luzon. Luzon really need to keep a close eye on Megi. Conditions are ripe for further rapid intensification, and JTWC are expecting Megi to become a typhoon later tonight and then eventually become a cat 4 typhoon as it approaches Luzon. The environment is certainly very favourable, with low shear, hot sea surface temperatures, high ocean heat content, and excellent outflow, particularly in a poleward direction. Convection is already tightly wrapped around the well defined LLC, putting Megi in a good position for further intensification.

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Blimey, Megi has jumped straight over the frying pan and straight into the fire, shes going to be a beast

wp201015.gif

gl_sst.gif

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Still a tropical storm at the moment,

but this has all the hallmarks of being a biggie

20101014.1230.gms6.x.ir1km.15WMEGI.60kts-978mb-131N-1385E.100pc.jpg

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Megi was struggling this afternoon due to a disturbance located to the west supressing outflow on this side of the storm. The disturbance is now dissipating and no longer affecting Megi. As a consequence, Megi has resumed quick intensification, and intensity has risen to 80kts, making Megi a cat 1 typhoon. Megi is developing an eye embedded in a circular central dense overcast feature which is flanked by impressive banding features. This structure, with a very favourable environment ahead, suggests Megi will become a strong and dangerous typhoon. Megi is expected to head generally westwards and impact Luzon. Thereafter, westwards motion is expected to continue, and a weakened Megi could move into the South China Sea and restrengthen. China and Vietnam are therefore also in danger later down the line if Megi makes it this far west.

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Megi has continued to intensify. The eye is rather cloud obscured but is becoming better defined with time. Megi is a category 2 typhoon this morning, with sustained winds of 90kts.

Track forecast from JTWC is largely the same as before, with subtropical ridging to the north building over the next few days. This will turn the current northwesterly track to a more westerly heading towards Luzon. Conditions are still excellent for continued strengthening, and JTWC forecast Megi to become a high end cat 4 super typhoon. Category 5 is certainly not out of the question here as conditions support it. It looks like Megi will easily become the strongest storm of the season- not too difficult when (unusually) no storm has yet exceeded cat 3 status.

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Megi has strengthened to 105kts, making it a cat 3. However, on latest satellite imagery, Megi looks to have developed a pinhole eye, and could be about to rapidly intensify:

post-1820-062916000 1287251398_thumb.jpg

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Megi has become the first cat 4 of the West Pacific season and is 5kts short of super typhoon status. Intensity has risen sharply to 125kts. Megi is still on course for Luzon; I hope they are as prepared as they can be. Some weakening is expected over Luzon, but re-strengthening is still expected as Megi moves into the South China Sea.

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Recon are flying Megi at the moment. Flight Level winds of 169kt, Surface winds of 146kt and a central pressure of 908mb and falling fast (down from 916mb the previous pass). Impressive... Would make it the strongest storm of the year.

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Megi is now the first super typhoon, and first cat 5 of the West Pacific 2010 season, with intensity now at a whopping 145kts. The super typhoon has a perfectly defined eye with a solid CDO and excellent banding. Megi could intensify a little more but has likely peaked as the typhoon will start interacting with land on it'swestern side today. Conditions on Luzon will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon, and Megi should still be a cat 5 on landfall later tonight. Megi is forecast to weaken to a cat 2 over the montainous terrain of Luzon but then re-strengthen to a cat 4 in the South China Sea so will remain a very dangerous storm...

It's worth noting that Megi is only the 4th cat 5 of what has been a lacking year in this respect so far. The 1st cat 5 was Cyclone Edzani in the South Indian Ocean, then Cyclone Ului in the South Pacific, then Major Hurricane Celia in the East Pacific and now Megi.

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Impressive system, James from typhoon fury.com is intercepting this

visld.jpg

dvor-nh15W.GIF

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Hopefully she stays safe!

Megi has become even stronger, winds are now 155kts, making Megi the strongest cyclone worldwide of 2010. I just wish it wasn't approaching land.

EDIT: Recon are going through Megi again, pressure is down to 893mb.

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A real beast I can't believe the lack off attention this is getting!!

20101017.1421.terra.x.ir1km.15WMEGI.155kts-907mb-181N-1251E.100pc.jpg

2rlyuyw.gif

crefl2_143.A2010290045500-2010290050000.2km.jpg

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Chris Fawkes gave this a brief mention during the weather on the Andrew Marr show this morning saying it was a super typhoon with the likes of strength he has never seen before. That prompted me to jump on here straight away. He said we'll be no doubt hearing it in the news tomorrow.

It looks devastating.

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Do we know the mean wind speeds at this time.

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It's a beast of awesome power and stunning shape. A classic typhoon.

Good write up (as ever) on Dr Jeff Masters blog. Extreme winds but the worst is, of course, only near they eye.

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Latest JTWC forecast say Megi likely peaked at 160-165kt sustained winds this afternoon, has weakened slightly now to 155kts but needless to say this will still be devestating. Up to 20 inches of rain is expected with wind gusts up to 200mph. Not good at all!

Do we know the mean wind speeds at this time.

The link Devonian has posted has this information, but sustained winds are now 180mph, down from near 200mph earlier this afternoon. Gusts are likely to be around 200mph at the moment.

JMA have lowered Megi's pressure to 890mb in thier latest advisory.

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Megi had 190mph 1 minute sustained winds earlier today, which makes it only one of five tropical cyclones worldwide to have confirmed windspeeds of 190mph. Also the first one to have those windspeeds for 30 years, the last one being Hurricane Allen in 1980. Truly phenomenal Typhoon especially as it is a La Nina year.

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