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Invest 98L has become Tropical Storm Paula, just off the northeast coast of Honduras, with intensity at 40kts.

AL, 18, 2010101118, , BEST, 0, 157N, 837W, 40, 1001, TS

This is the first time a storm has been named Paula, as in 2004 naming stopped at Otto and in 1998 naming stopped at Nicole.

Paula is very close to land, and the tight LLC is very close to the coast. Paula is drenching Nicaragua and eastern Honduras at present and is bring tropical storm force winds to the coast. Models predict Paula should pull away to the north over the next day or so to possibly strike western Cuba, but this is still uncertain.

Waters are toasty in the area, but proximity to land should limit intensification in the short term. Conditions in the GOM aren't great, with higher shear and dry air, but Paula may have time to become a hurricane. Another possibility is Paula could avoid this area entirely and track rather similiar to Paloma in 2008- we shall see.

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thanks for the update

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the track is highly uncertain at the moment

avn-l.jpg

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You can certainly say that again in regards to the track Cookie! It's very uncertain just where Paula will end up!

Recon data has been found to bump the intensity up to 50kts. Paula could be a hurricane in less than 24hrs.

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From the latest images an eyewall appears to be forming. I would not be surprised if Paula is a hurricane by the morning.

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Paula now up to Cat 2 with a special advisory.

000

WTNT33 KNHC 121738

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010

1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE PLANE FINDS PAULA WITH 100 MPH WINDS...

...THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.8N 85.8W

ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...

INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA

GRUESA

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36

HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-

FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT

OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE

RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. PAULA IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST

TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT

AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING

IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60

MILES...95 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST

WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE

CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS

OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER

CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING

ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR THE COAST...THE

SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

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Could have another major on our hands if current trends continue. Eastern Yucatan looking to be in for a very bumpy ride from Paula!

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Paula has not strengthened beyond 85kts, which is still the current intensity. Paula is a small hurricane with a well defined eye, and due to it's size, rapid weakening is expected to commense due to impending high shear. Paula is still expected to be a hurricane however as it grazes northwestern Cuba, but therafter should dissipate rapidly over the high terrain.

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Paula is no longer a hurricane, with intensity now at 60kts. Strong shear has been battering Paula all day as she drifts eastwards near the north coast of Cuba. With land interaction increasing, Paula won't be able to survive too long. It's remnants are forecast to be steered south by low level flow as the system becomes shallower, meaning the remains will be re-entering the warm Caribbean waters. Paula will likely to be too weak to re-generate however.

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