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Cymro

Dream Winter Forecast/hopecast - No Sceince Behind It.

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As it is evident in many other topics that some individuals are basing forecasts on what they foresee or a fantasy forecast with no scientific based facts behind it. This tends to upset some posters as many have gone to a lengthy effort of preparing a forecast with good reasoning and scientific backing only for them to get lost amongs other posts that don't have such the backing. Those posts aren't wrong however they make for some exciting reading. But perhaps we could refrain from posting them in the Winter topic and instead post them here.

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Please may we just stop all this arguing. Just enjoy winter :) People are intitled to say what they want to say so just enjoy :)

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Please may we just stop all this arguing. Just enjoy winter :) People are intitled to say what they want to say so just enjoy :)

Quite agree hence the creation of this topic. I believe the thoughts of others are also valuable and fun to read and they shouldn't lead to arguments as they currently are in the Winter thread :). So instead lets post them here :) .

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As it is evident in many other topics that some individuals are basing forecasts on what they foresee or a fantasy forecast with no scientific based facts behind it. This tends to upset some posters as many have gone to a lengthy effort of preparing a forecast with good reasoning and scientific backing only for them to get lost amongs other posts that don't have such the backing. Those posts aren't wrong however they make for some exciting reading. But perhaps we could refrain from posting them in the Winter topic and instead post them here.

This is a good idea Adam.

I have no problems with anyone making totally unscientific dreamwinter 'forecasts' but they do tend to devalue a message board when they go in alongside properly thought and well reasoned forecasts from those who have put a lot of work into them.

Here is my dream winter forecast from my own Dorset perspective, December a repeat of Dec1981 followed by January 1963 and February 1947 with the blizzard of February 1978 thrown in for good measure. I know it won't happen and it doesn't have an once of reasoning or scientific merit behind it but hey what a winter it would be.

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I reckon it's a cold snowy one again (no science, just hope and more hope).

Winter will be what it will be!!! We can't change what Mother Nature will bring us and most of the time we second guess Her either (as with most females!!!) :wallbash:

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Mine would be lots of dry sunny days with afternoon temperatures around 25'c and occasional overnight rain to keep the dust down.

Sorry wrong thread, that is my dream summer forecast and something which seems as rare as raging winter blizzards.

My ideal winter forecast would be short cold spells in December with enough snow to add attractivness to the countryside whilst still keeping the infastructure working.

The Christmas period would need to be snowy but again not a fall to bring the country to its knees.

That would come around late January, early February when a sustained easterly blast would bring Siberian weather to our shores at the same time as the Atlantic decided to wake from its long slumber.

the battleground for this would be fought right over my neck of the woods, the high ground of Northern England with several major snowfalls and blizzard conditions for many days.

Roads would be closed and entire comunities cut off.

conditions would deteriorate to the point where the power went off just before Monday's double helping of Coronation Street was due to start; an event which would surely force the coalition government into action, first by blaming the previous government for spending what they didn't have and then by removing family allowance from anyone who owned their own snow shovel although having two spades of a similar capacity didn't count.

anyway around this point the Atlantic weather would finally win the battle and much milder conditions would set in with things returning to a position where Thursday's Eastenders could be watched without incident.

the following Spring and Summer would then be the hottest since mmmmmm 2010

No science behind my forecast with the only things i'm sure will happen this winter being that someone will win X Factor and that there will be a death on Eastenders around the Christmas/ New Year period.

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Here's my dream winter forecast:

Late October:

A cold northerly sets in, bringing an early taste of winter. Wintry showers fall to lower levels in the North, with snow on the hills. On par with October 2003.

November:

Quite settled for the first couple of weeks, with average temperatures by day, but quite frosty nights. Sometimes mist and fog. During the second half of the month it will be cold, with the first proper cold snap likely bringing snow showers to Northern and Eastern areas courtesy of northerly winds.

December:

Overall a cooler than average month, with frequent marginal snowfalls. Low pressure tracking over the south of Britain, resulting in some heavy snowfalls from the Midlands northwards, each lasting a few days with a thaw in between. A Greenland high towards the end of the month with bitter northerly winds covering the whole of the UK

January:

Low pressure nudging in from the South, bringing blizzards in the far South West. Bitterly cold elsewhere with lying snow. Eventually milder air will arrive everywhere, giving milder weather until mid month. During this time, bitterly cold air will push into Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. During the second half of the month, low pressure will begin to slip away to the South East, so a severe cold spell could be on the cards with gale force North Easterly winds, bringing heavy, drifting powder snow to the East of the UK. During the final stages of the month high pressure will nudge in, trapping some very cold air over the British Isles.

February: High pressure soon retreating as Atlantic lows move in. Upper temperatures will be too mild for a snowy breakdown so any snow left from January will soon disappear. However, this milder spell won't last long as repeated northerlies will continue for about two thirds of the month, interspersed by brief milder interludes. Northern and Eastern areas will bear the brunt of the snow, but troughs could crop up almost anywhere. During the latter stages of the month, high pressure over Scandinavia will bring prolonged easterly winds and snow to the South and East, with only the far North West avoiding any significant snow.

March: Finally some pleasant spring sunshine during the first half. However, prolonged northerly winds will persist for the second half of the month, resulting in frequent late season snow events.

April: Overall a typical April, but a potent northerly around mid month will bring some dramatic snow showers to the usual spots in the North and East.

As I've said, this is merely a hopecast. In actual fact I expect a cool, dry winter, though possibly with more northerlies than average.

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Here's my ideal winter forecast then:

October Mostly warm and sunny in the 1st week. Potent northerly plunge in the 2nd week, with thundersnow midweek. An anticyclonic 3rd week, warm and sunny by day, cool and misty by night. Quite a wild, windy, showery last week, with widespread hail, but cold & quiet on the last two days.

November Starting mostly sunny and warm, but with some chilly nights. A northerly outbreak in the second week with some thundery wintry showers (lol!). Mainly westerly winds and showers in the 3rd week, quite windy at times, and the showers wintry at times. A potent northerly in the last week with more snow showers, sandwiched between two relatively mild interludes.

December Cold and snowy 1st-7th and 25th-31st, with frequent N & E winds. Mostly unsettled with variable temperatures during the middle sector of the month, often mild but with showers sometimes wintry in NW incursions, and a settled spell shortly before Christmas.

January The Christmas-New Year wintry spell continues well into the first week, giving a cold, snowy spell of similar length to the January 2010 one. Mild and sunny in the 2nd week, though turning increasingly unsettled, windy & showery midmonth. Cooler, anticyclonic spell in the 3rd week. A "cold zonal" incursion in the last week with W & NW winds and widespread snow showers.

February Mostly sunny during the first half, often anticyclonic and warm by day in the manner of 8-20 February 2008, with a brief colder showery interruption in the middle of the period. Into the 3rd week, a plunge of NE'lys with several days of snow showers and sharp night frosts, and not turning mild again until the last few days.

March Another episodic month, with alternating mild and cold spells (warm sunshine in warm spells, wintry showers in cold spells). Snowy at both ends of the month and for a time in the 2nd week, but very warm & sunny around midmonth with temps into the high teens.

April Mostly warm and sunny, but with a potent northerly outbreak in the 3rd week, bringing snow and hail showers, accompanied on occasion by thunder. Showers & thunderstorms at both ends of the month.

May Heatwave in the first week (widespread temps of 24-28C on the warmest day), followed by a northerly in the 2nd week with wintry showers midweek. Then no more snow until the following season.

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What exactly does this thread have that the others don't? Most of the 'Dream Winter Forecasting' have been put into a Contextual forecast back into the other threads it seems. You get one properly cold and snowy winter in 30 years and suddenly the 'even larger teapot' theory flies out of the window.

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My Dream Winter Forecast...

Remainder of October

Well here we go... The northerly currently knocking about in the charts will disappear in the next couple days and the usual snow lovers will become disheartened. However by Wednesday next week the GFS will predict a massive Greenland high of 1060mb joining with an Atlantic High for around the same time as the northerly was previously forecasted. People laugh it off as they think -10 upper air is ridiculous at this time of year... there obviously must have been some kind of mistake surely? This evolution reappears several times throughout the next week and people start to believe it as the ECM comes on board and the Met Office mentions ‘wintry showers’ in their written forecasts. By the 18th of October the mega-northerly is assured and hits in the next few days... Scotland and Northern England receive record October snowfall, and even Southern England breaks records. As the northerly calms down temperatures fail to recover, and some very cold nights and low maxima during the day are present until the end of the month.

November

As the excitement from the October snowfall kick-starts the forum into search for another big snow event the GFS and ECM are going into overdrive. People start to question their integrity, but a massive cold pool descends into Western Europe and Eastern Europe, -20 upper air reaches Moscow and brings the city over a foot of snow, Poland, Germany and Scandinavia are warned of an extreme weather event by the Russians and various weather organisations around the world. The extreme cold continues its journey west and eventually hits the u.k around the 10th. East facing coasts are battered by thunder snow with -10 - -15 upper air. By mid month -15 upper air covers the whole of the UK, with -20 upper air seeming like warm in Russia where they receive -40 upper air. There seems to be balmy warmth in the arctic circle as a plume rushes up the USA with +10 upper air reaching the central ice sheets of Greenland. By the end of the month the united nations are worried about the state of the atmosphere... The warmth the arctic is receiving could accelerate melting over Greenland and worsen the state of the Gulf Stream due to increased melt water causing a salt-water imbalance. By the end of the month the UK, Europe and Western Russia are in chaos and records the coldest November on record. Over 2 foot of snow covers upland UK and 1 foot down to lower levels. The north sea and the channel temperatures begin to plummet. Temperatures in cities are around -5 by day and below -15 during the night. Over Hills this is nearly twice as bad.

December

As official winter begins the coalition government are forced into disregarding their money cuts, and focus on protecting the citizens of the UK. Russia-esque snow clearing machines are ordered for major cities and money gets bucketed into the met office for more data on the upcoming winter. The warmth across the arctic circle worsens and La nina amazingly turns into El nino within a week. All forecasting models are considered useless as they throw up even more snow and cold for Europe and Russia, yet the USA and most of the pacific is predicted extrememly unseasonal temperatures. The ice situation worsens and large sections of ice begin to break off and melt into the north atlantic, yet the north of Europe thickens decends and reaches the top of Scandinavia, Iceland and Russia. Sea temperatures around the U.k drop below 5 degrees and the news goes crazy reporting that the sea is going to freeze! Elsewhere in the news a new Ice age is forecasted for the northern hemisphere as the gulf stream is set to switch off. By Christmas the snow depths in the UK double... river, lakes and areas around coasts the sea begins to freeze and the government warns the elderly to stay inside and asks for volunteers to care for them. Normal jobs becoming difficult to get to but snow shovelling and other associated jobs are created to try and resume some sort of order to the country. Temperatures are around around -8 by day and -16 by night in cities. Over hills it is more like -20 by day and -30 by night.

January

A new ice age is forecasted officially... Climate change theorists assure the governments around the world that a cataclysmic event is upon us extremely similar to that of that in ‘The Day after Tomorrow’. The USA receives record cold, and the cold around Europe also strengthens, the warm surge of air is trapped over the arctic and cut off and remains there melting more ice. Meanwhile in the UK the descending ice reaches the Shetlands and continues its journey south until the UK looks completely different from outer space. Scandinavians visit the UK by driving over the new sea ice and a frost fair is once again celebrated on the Thames and various rivers around the UK. Temperatures are -10 – 15 by day and -20 - -25 in most areas overnight. Over the Hills -40 is reached and never really goes over -20 during the day.

February

By February it begins to seem like the governments have overreacted to the apparent massive climate changing event... the warm air trapped over the arctic quickly cools to near normal levels and the melt turns into a re-freeze. The cold strengthens of the USA and Canada while becoming less so over the UK as high pressure sets up and stops the falling of snow. Temperatures are still around -5 by day and -15 by night in major cities. Over hills it is more like -10 by day and -20 by night, especially so in Scotland. The sea ice that has surrounded the UK refuses to melt.

March

March see’s the Atlantic firing up and bringing more massive amounts of snow to the UK, the Met Office predicts that we will see no summer in 2011, and 2012 speculators predict the end of the world – naturally. Yet by mid month a melt sets in bringing flooding and mass panic as people retreat from the sea ice. By the end of the month the ice retreats to the north and we see 18 degrees in the south, with 16 in the north.

April

The warm weather continues and high pressure returns eventually drying out the country and returning life to normal. Concern is still felt forr the summer but the models are predicting normal spring weather right into FI so things are unlikely to turn bad again.

Ok maybe a little over the top LMAO! I think i may have an overactive imagination... :rolleyes: And obviously this isn't ever going to happen haha.

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winter would be cold,very cold,.Snow would be frequent,heavy and sustained.In between blizzards[and i mean proper,raging blizzards] calm,cold, clear freezing weather would persist until the next lot of snow.This weather would be from november to march.Unlikely,yes-possible ,yes.This is my winter hopecast

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This is a good idea Adam.

I have no problems with anyone making totally unscientific dreamwinter 'forecasts' but they do tend to devalue a message board when they go in alongside properly thought and well reasoned forecasts from those who have put a lot of work into them.

Here is my dream winter forecast from my own Dorset perspective, December a repeat of Dec1981 followed by January 1963 and February 1947 with the blizzard of February 1978 thrown in for good measure. I know it won't happen and it doesn't have an once of reasoning or scientific merit behind it but hey what a winter it would be.

Kind of sad this year we need another thread. Some people have put a lot thought into them. I wasn't sure why all the sarcastic tones.

Here is a thought NOBODY has clue what December weather will be like lets leave it to November then or lets just say -40c for whole of Jan, well done. :drinks:

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I will make my winter "hopecast" simple:

January 1916 + February 1998 + December 1988.

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