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Winter 2010/2011 Part 2


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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Nick i see you are in Reading now, miss you in midlands thread, enjoy your snow down there! you'll see a damn sight more than I will see in the snowless NW midlands

I bet you will get a foot of the bloody stuff now :D

And I will be back for a month over Xmas (17th Dec - 17th Jan), so I will return to the Midlands thread then :)

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

What was the Solar Activity like during 54/55/56..? La-nina is becoming the strongest event since 1955! a very snowy winter period.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Why don't you just drop the guitar part of your avatar and we will all just settle for 'nutter!' Completely uncalled for and nasty comment which only incites comments like mine. Sorry Mods.

Hit the 'report button next to his post'

I have.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

What was the Solar Activity like during 54/55/56..? La-nina is becoming the strongest event since 1955! a very snowy winter period.

April 1954 was tha start of solar cycle 19, which was the whopper. 18 that preceded it was pretty strong too so solar activity was very different to today. What was similar was the perturbation cycle [ENSO phase domination] was in La Nina phase like currently. One of the reasons why I'm not 'particularly' looking at those winters.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

What was the Solar Activity like during 54/55/56..? La-nina is becoming the strongest event since 1955! a very snowy winter period.

early 90s onwards a surge in high solar activity,

but had been dropping since cycle22,

but we are now at a very intresting point in solar activity.

as for other idears on why winter 10/11 could be chilly as some have said!

is south tracking jet

stronger blocking around greenland with heights being the overall player since the drop in solar activity.

neg pdo,

neg amo,

la nina although this made little difference last winter when a strong el nino was in play.

months and months of neg nao have been very common aswell as gp posted in the tec model thread.

im not sure if right now things are looking a little different from last years winter in terms of possible setups?

there are a few people thinking maybe not as cold and snowy as last year,

but still a little below in terms of over all cets.

but i think things are similar in some cases!

but the uncertainty could be due to the strong la nina and how this will effect us.

but using some of the idears to call a cold winter are in place.

and my point of view is a winter like 2005 which was a very active hurricaine season,

2005 if im correct was the year when the meto ramped up the very cold winter it wernt that cold but slightly below average but very settled.

this is why i go for 2005 settled type winter although colder,

but blocking was strong last winter if this continues then its possible for a 2005 winter but much colder but less snowy than last.:cold:8)

infact my solar activity comments were not correct in terms of dates but the general picture is the early mid late 90s to early 2000s when the sun was very active indeed.:whistling:

BFTP is much more worthy in terms solar activity lunar phases including date lol:whistling::blush:

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Posted
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand

I see a cold first half of autumn like 1919 and a cold start and end to winter, Not like january feb march 1920.

Think your kinda running out of time for that one, only 5 more days or so and we'll be into the second half of Autumn and I certainly wouldn't call the last month and a half 'cold'. Did you mean the second half?

IF 2010/11 is going to be a severe winter I think I would very much like the rest of the autumn to be pleasant and mild, as I don't think I would be able to stand 4-5 months of cold (and that's assuming spring doesn't continue with the cold). Although that said I'm definitely starting to get excited for the prospect of snow and wouldn't be too upset if we saw a good fall of a few inches in November down here :blush:

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The thing about last year is the El Nino actually helped us out in terms of aiding northern blocking and a negative AO, El Nino's aren't actually that bad in that respect and infact a weak El Nino tends to be the best state of all if you want to get a negative AO/NAO. The problem is however usually other factors in the El Nino, esp stronger events over-ride that positive factor and the jet runs riot like we saw in November 2009. For several reasons though last year the northern blocking became so extreme over the Arctic that the jet just got shunted way south and that helped us out big time. I can't imagine that set of situations happening all that often, its probably a once in 50 year event for something like that to time itself so well with other factors.

La Nina tends to be alot different because its the northern jet that strengthens rather then the southern subtropical arm which means whilst super mild months are more rare in La Nina, overall its probably more difficult to get a proper cold winter as well once the event gets past a certain point of strength,

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/ITCZ/west.gif

Well here's another possible reason to think Autumn could be about to become colder (apart from the lengthening nights) - the ITCZ has been further North than average over the last few months, but is now showing signs of moving back to at least the long term mean (I suspect it will move south of the long term mean as we move into the winter months). Kold mentioned about the northern arm of the jet strengthening during La Nina - so we've really got to be looking for that Northern Arm of the jet to be well south too; we'll need that ITCZ to help us out to allow that - assuming you want cold weather of course.

Edited by beng
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Years that had a moderate La Nina i.e over -1.1 NDJ and DJF. CET next to it for DJF

2007-2008 5.6

1998-1999 5.4

1999-2000 5.4

1988-1989 6.5

1973-1974 5.4

1975-1976 5.2

1970-1971 4.4

1955-1956 2.9

The most similar to this years seem to be 98,73 which both came of the back of a strong El Nino.

55-56 and 70-71 where both negative NAO winters.

There are some similarities with the winter of 70-71.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Worth saying as well that the MEI is, I believe the most negative is has been in over 60 years.

Two other strong La Nina winters were 1916-1917 and 1917-1918, the later of which is the strongest recorded La Nina, I believe?

Yes I should say that those are only since 1950. I think as you go furher back the less reliable the figures probably are and only the strongest signals as you mention really stand out.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

The thing about last year is the El Nino actually helped us out in terms of aiding northern blocking and a negative AO, El Nino's aren't actually that bad in that respect and infact a weak El Nino tends to be the best state of all if you want to get a negative AO/NAO. The problem is however usually other factors in the El Nino, esp stronger events over-ride that positive factor and the jet runs riot like we saw in November 2009. For several reasons though last year the northern blocking became so extreme over the Arctic that the jet just got shunted way south and that helped us out big time. I can't imagine that set of situations happening all that often, its probably a once in 50 year event for something like that to time itself so well with other factors.

La Nina tends to be alot different because its the northern jet that strengthens rather then the southern subtropical arm which means whilst super mild months are more rare in La Nina, overall its probably more difficult to get a proper cold winter as well once the event gets past a certain point of strength,

makes perfect sense kold thats a good way of approaching the possibles of this winter i think the jet is a little more unpredictable right now and could well be for most of winter if la nina weakens before feb march we could have something special in spring although agreed would not be happy for us coldies.

although i still think greenland blocking to the effect of last winter wont happen but mid alantic heights possible with plenty of cold frosty conditions with northerly plunges which i might add could be fairly potent as its looking likely it could be pretty cold around the arctic area.

Edited by badboy657
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The thing about last year is the El Nino actually helped us out in terms of aiding northern blocking and a negative AO, El Nino's aren't actually that bad in that respect and infact a weak El Nino tends to be the best state of all if you want to get a negative AO/NAO. The problem is however usually other factors in the El Nino, esp stronger events over-ride that positive factor and the jet runs riot like we saw in November 2009. For several reasons though last year the northern blocking became so extreme over the Arctic that the jet just got shunted way south and that helped us out big time. I can't imagine that set of situations happening all that often, its probably a once in 50 year event for something like that to time itself so well with other factors.

La Nina tends to be alot different because its the northern jet that strengthens rather then the southern subtropical arm which means whilst super mild months are more rare in La Nina, overall its probably more difficult to get a proper cold winter as well once the event gets past a certain point of strength,

I would say it depends on a combination of factors, El Nino for instance does see a stronger Sub-Tropical Jet Stream exiting the USA (+PNA), however El Nino is typically associated with +QBO conditions and enhances the effects, generally resulting in a +AO and the Jet Stream surging northward as it approaches Europe, however last winter we saw a -QBO which kept the Jet Stream south leading to exceptional -AO values.

This winter promises pretty much the opposite senario, i think this winter will be very dry and also feature a cold December, however we should see a stronger polar vortex this winter.

Worth saying as well that the MEI is, I believe the most negative is has been in over 60 years.

Yes I should say that those are only since 1950. I think as you go furher back the less reliable the figures probably are and only the strongest signals as you mention really stand out.

The MEI is the index i refer to, strongest La Nina in fifty five years and second strongest on record.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/ITCZ/west.gif

Well here's another possible reason to think Autumn could be about to become colder (apart from the lengthening nights) - the ITCZ has been further North than average over the last few months, but is now showing signs of moving back to at least the long term mean (I suspect it will move south of the long term mean as we move into the winter months). Kold mentioned about the northern arm of the jet strengthening during La Nina - so we've really got to be looking for that Northern Arm of the jet to be well south too; we'll need that ITCZ to help us out to allow that - assuming you want cold weather of course.

Interesting one this Beng, good post. I did some research on this over the last couple of years and I forget her name but a female scientist across the Atlantic had findings which observed that the ITCZ had fattened out over the last 150 years. This fell in line with the general northward shift of the jetstream over the same period. Mixing it in with cold and warm cycles this falls neatly in line with observed overall warming over the last century and half. Now the reporty found that the ITCZ stopped fattening in 2002. Looking nat that short term chart we see that it was below average for a while this year. I think the busy tropical storm season is the reason it spread above average and i think and agree that we will see it shrink below average. The timing will also see the jetstream make a marked southward kick too. Some folk have mentioned that AO and NAO are an atmospheric response and not drivers, I agree they are responding IMO to the solar and lunar phase that has and is shifting the jetstream south...this will lead to more -ve NAO and AO phases.

Re the La Nina, look at this current SST anomaly. The PDO is re-inforcing negative now with an awesome La Nina [no milding out there as was suggested by a n other]. I am interested in the developing cold pools in the Atlantic, they are starting to pop up. That is a reverse C of warm water which spells warm AMO.

sst_anom.gif

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

MEI + AO

2008 oct

MEI +QBO

1961 >>>

1971 sep

1975 oct

1978 sep

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

AO

2008

1990

1981

1972

1968

1965

1952

1951

I have taken a look at the AO data for the August-September period and these are the anologues.

Hvaing taken a look at the data for the AO, MEI and QBO in order to establish the strongest anologues, we get the following results..

MEI + AO

2008 oct

MEI +QBO

1961 >>>

1971 sep

1975 oct

1978 sep

Its interesting to note that on the basis of those anologues, there is only a 20% chance of La Nina peaking later than October with a 60% chance of La Nina weakening throughout winter and an 80% chance of mature QBO, this signal indicates strong agreement on a cold December and February. It is also interesting to note that the polar atmosphere is responding in a similar way to 2008, the winter of 2009 while cold was a neutral AO winter, however it did feature a slightly -AO in February which further enhances the cold signal, only the winter of 1972 was above average from those anologues.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Interesting one this Beng, good post. I did some research on this over the last couple of years and I forget her name but a female scientist across the Atlantic had findings which observed that the ITCZ had fattened out over the last 150 years. This fell in line with the general northward shift of the jetstream over the same period. Mixing it in with cold and warm cycles this falls neatly in line with observed overall warming over the last century and half. Now the reporty found that the ITCZ stopped fattening in 2002. Looking nat that short term chart we see that it was below average for a while this year. I think the busy tropical storm season is the reason it spread above average and i think and agree that we will see it shrink below average. The timing will also see the jetstream make a marked southward kick too. Some folk have mentioned that AO and NAO are an atmospheric response and not drivers, I agree they are responding IMO to the solar and lunar phase that has and is shifting the jetstream south...this will lead to more -ve NAO and AO phases.

Re the La Nina, look at this current SST anomaly. The PDO is re-inforcing negative now with an awesome La Nina [no milding out there as was suggested by a n other]. I am interested in the developing cold pools in the Atlantic, they are starting to pop up. That is a reverse C of warm water which spells warm AMO.

sst_anom.gif

BFTP

Hello BFTP, I hope you are well!

Just wondering what your thoughts are on the upcoming winter?

Do you think it will be cold?

Backtrack.

By the way - your inbox is full!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Hi Backtrack

In box sorted. Plain and simple yes I do :D

BFTP

Thanks alot mate. Hopeful for that myself (Same as every year) :p

When will you be releasing your forecast? And was your forecast accurate last year? :)

Backtrack.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

first one=ITCZ=Inter Tropical Convergence Zone

this from uk weather faqs is as good an explanation as any

Intertropical Convergence Zone

(usually abbr. ITCZ) A zone (often rather broad, but sometimes quite narrow), which separates the 'air-masses' brought together by the low-level outflow from the sub-tropical high pressure belts north and south of the equator. Over the oceans, the zone can be well marked; over land, sensible heating usually leads to 'breaks' or other anomalies, and the regional-scale monsoon circulations also distort, or swamp the idealised structure of the ITCZ. Cloudiness (and hence precipitation activity) can vary sharply over a period of 24hr. Day-to-day change of position is often small, but the zone migrates north & south through the course of a year, roughly in sympathy with the changing position of the sun.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

first one=ITCZ=Inter Tropical Convergence Zone

this from uk weather faqs is as good an explanation as any

Intertropical Convergence Zone

(usually abbr. ITCZ) A zone (often rather broad, but sometimes quite narrow), which separates the 'air-masses' brought together by the low-level outflow from the sub-tropical high pressure belts north and south of the equator. Over the oceans, the zone can be well marked; over land, sensible heating usually leads to 'breaks' or other anomalies, and the regional-scale monsoon circulations also distort, or swamp the idealised structure of the ITCZ. Cloudiness (and hence precipitation activity) can vary sharply over a period of 24hr. Day-to-day change of position is often small, but the zone migrates north & south through the course of a year, roughly in sympathy with the changing position of the sun.

thanks very much for that john, how about MEI?

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