Winter 2010/2011 Part 2

[Coast]

A continuation of the ever popular Winter thread to discuss what you expect from the coming winter and what are you hoping for....

[liltbrockie]

Come on people.. the more we talk about it the more it will happen!!

[Isolated Frost]

Come on people.. the more we talk about it the more it will happen!!

Hehe. If that were true; we'd have Siberian winters with blizzards and large drifts every year!

Anyway, looking at the GFS, snowfall could be recorded very soon, and a large drop in temperatures before Halloween!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Solar driven current phases put us in the firing line. There is no suggestion that ther jetstream is going to come back from its southerly jaunt. Scandinavia and Western Europe IMO are assured a severe winter, will it get to the shores of UK and Ireland....I'm working on it.

BFTP

[Isolated Frost]

Solar driven current phases put us in the firing line. There is no suggestion that ther jetstream is going to come back from its southerly jaunt. Scandinavia and Western Europe IMO are assured a severe winter, will it get to the shores of UK and Ireland....I'm working on it.

BFTP

Oooo... now it starts. For me, winter is in full flow right now. These boards are going to be full as we get up to Halloween and Bonfire Night!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Solar driven current phases put us in the firing line. There is no suggestion that ther jetstream is going to come back from its southerly jaunt. Scandinavia and Western Europe IMO are assured a severe winter, will it get to the shores of UK and Ireland....I'm working on it.

BFTP

Any idea when yourself and RJS will be releasing yer winter forecast? Did quite well last year if I remember correctly.

Hopefully Ireland can get a bit more snow this year, ye Brits hogged it all last winter!

[CroatianWeather]

Hi everyone....noone puts charts of seasonal forecast,so I will do it: NASA and ECPC seasonal forecasts....both are giving cold winter in Balkans(like Joe Bast...) and average for UK !!!!!!!!!!These forecasts are pretty good so I think this will happen....Balkans will get severe winter this year!!!!!!!:whistling:And my opinion that your UK winter will be for sure dry and maybe little cooler than normal...<_<

http://gmao.gsfc.nas...urope&var4=temp

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu...SM_seasons.html

Edited October 8, 2010 by CroatianWeather

[Crimson_Sprite]

Any idea when yourself and RJS will be releasing yer winter forecast? Did quite well last year if I remember correctly.

Hopefully Ireland can get a bit more snow this year, ye Brits hogged it all last winter!

Not all of us Brits!! :lol: Some of us actually has a very poor snow turnout last year... I reckon I had more snow in 08/09 than last year. I measured a total of about 3.5inch of accumalitive snow for the whole winter here in Notts. The biggest fall dumping a measely 1.75inch (DOHHHH!!!) I cried and repeatedly slammed my head into the computer keyboard while watching on radar how places only 20 miles north of me were getting clobbered. Saying that, we had lots of days where snow fell from the sky, but it just didnt stick, or left a pathetic dandruff on the pavement...

I am OWED some snow this year. I actually have been DREAMING about snow for the past 3 weeks (even while I was in Malta last week!) In my dreams, we get lots of snow this winter, so here's hoping and doing mega-power telekentic concentration to the clouds and temps to BRING. US. SNOW. !!!!!!!!!!!!

[artfularshavin]

ell i previously made a LRF winter forecast,but im making a few adjustments to it as i see things slightly differently now!

LUKES FORECAST:

i see NOVEMBER as being a fairly cool month overall not too cold more likely cool,temps 0-5c below average.although i wouldnt be suprised if the southeast in particular saw them pushing a tad lower,due to air coming off the cold continent at times.as i feel that a east,southeasterly wind will prevail a lot of the time. so basically the main weather features being messy drizzle on a often scale,but i do see things turning cold later on,possibly very cold towards month end so more like sleet by that time,no significant snow though i feel at this stage yet....

DECEMBER-i believe will be a month of two halfs,the weather the first 2-possibly 3 weeks! very cold bitter you could call it.with a big block established over UK.the winds alternating northwest north or anywhere from the east direction BRRR!! temps during this period very low day time likely 0-2 c nationwide,now on to the final part of december the weather turns nasty i feel,as we see low pressure taking over,no let up in the cold so large snow fall amounts always more to the south i feel.night time temps probly not as cold as the start of december due to cloud cover and unsettled conditions more likely -2 -3c overnight! what a cold month i feel! if things do develop the way i see it TEMPERATURES could well be as much as 2-2.5c! below the norm!

JANUARY-im not particuarly liking this month,very unsettled throughout i think with limited amounts of dry and bright weather,but with SNOW and cold weather always being the main talking points.this could be a very severe month i can not stress that more! i dont hav much more detail to put into this month,with the main focus though being snow and cold temperatures! most likely outcome,TEMPS below by 1-7 c! i dont think as cold as december,but a far more messy month with lots more snow!

going onto FEBRUARY im not so certain this far out,only it will continue cold all month just not too sure what pattern the weather will take.i have far more confidence in the previous months,though i suspect it wont be as bad as JANUARY weatherwise,but equally as cold! temperature values-again 1.5c below the average.

so to conclude all of this evidence, i can only see it going one way colder than last years very cold winter the worst of the temperatures in december a very cold month really! generally bitter throughout this winter though as you can see by my predicted temperature values.

here it is:

NOV 0-5C BELOW

DEC 2.5C BELOW!!

JAN 1.7C BELOW

FEB 1.5C BELOW

[snowlover2009]

ell i previously made a LRF winter forecast,but im making a few adjustments to it as i see things slightly differently now!

LUKES FORECAST:

i see NOVEMBER as being a fairly cool month overall not too cold more likely cool,temps 0-5c below average.although i wouldnt be suprised if the southeast in particular saw them pushing a tad lower,due to air coming off the cold continent at times.as i feel that a east,southeasterly wind will prevail a lot of the time. so basically the main weather features being messy drizzle on a often scale,but i do see things turning cold later on,possibly very cold towards month end so more like sleet by that time,no significant snow though i feel at this stage yet....

DECEMBER-i believe will be a month of two halfs,the weather the first 2-possibly 3 weeks! very cold bitter you could call it.with a big block established over UK.the winds alternating northwest north or anywhere from the east direction BRRR!! temps during this period very low day time likely 0-2 c nationwide,now on to the final part of december the weather turns nasty i feel,as we see low pressure taking over,no let up in the cold so large snow fall amounts always more to the south i feel.night time temps probly not as cold as the start of december due to cloud cover and unsettled conditions more likely -2 -3c overnight! what a cold month i feel! if things do develop the way i see it TEMPERATURES could well be as much as 2-2.5c! below the norm!

JANUARY-im not particuarly liking this month,very unsettled throughout i think with limited amounts of dry and bright weather,but with SNOW and cold weather always being the main talking points.this could be a very severe month i can not stress that more! i dont hav much more detail to put into this month,with the main focus though being snow and cold temperatures! most likely outcome,TEMPS below by 1-7 c! i dont think as cold as december,but a far more messy month with lots more snow!

going onto FEBRUARY im not so certain this far out,only it will continue cold all month just not too sure what pattern the weather will take.i have far more confidence in the previous months,though i suspect it wont be as bad as JANUARY weatherwise,but equally as cold! temperature values-again 1.5c below the average.

so to conclude all of this evidence, i can only see it going one way colder than last years very cold winter the worst of the temperatures in december a very cold month really! generally bitter throughout this winter though as you can see by my predicted temperature values.

here it is:

NOV 0-5C BELOW

DEC 2.5C BELOW!!

JAN 1.7C BELOW

FEB 1.5C BELOW

im not being funny, but 5c below average temps in November would be quite cold. have you thought about that? plus you mention the south-east possibly being even cooler! the cet would be a lot cooler than 0.5 below average

but very good forecast exciting luke

Edited October 8, 2010 by snowlover2009

[CroatianWeather]

Arshavin,are you Ok,no way of so cold winter like you predict...that's maybe what you want ,but average or maybe slightly colder winter is on the way for you!

[snowlover2009]

Arshavin,are you Ok,no way of so cold winter like you predict...that's maybe what you want ,but average or maybe slightly colder winter is on the way for you!

it is possible to get cets that cold and below the average you know. and at least edit your post so it says 'but i think an average or maybe maybe slightly colder winter is on the way' instead of saying it like you know what is definetly going to happen.

[CroatianWeather]

Snowlover you are right...I said it very serious and extremely sure...I think that there is big chance of average winter in UK..Is it ok now?

[snowlover2009]

Snowlover you are right...I said it very serious and extremely sure...I think that there is big chance of average winter in UK..Is it ok now?

yes thats more like it.

although on a more reasonable note i have to disagree, i think this winter has the potential to be very severe indeed. with the cold developing in november and bringing the worst of the conditions at the start of winter.

[weathe20]

ell i previously made a LRF winter forecast,but im making a few adjustments to it as i see things slightly differently now!

LUKES FORECAST:

i see NOVEMBER as being a fairly cool month overall not too cold more likely cool,temps 0-5c below average.although i wouldnt be suprised if the southeast in particular saw them pushing a tad lower,due to air coming off the cold continent at times.as i feel that a east,southeasterly wind will prevail a lot of the time. so basically the main weather features being messy drizzle on a often scale,but i do see things turning cold later on,possibly very cold towards month end so more like sleet by that time,no significant snow though i feel at this stage yet....

DECEMBER-i believe will be a month of two halfs,the weather the first 2-possibly 3 weeks! very cold bitter you could call it.with a big block established over UK.the winds alternating northwest north or anywhere from the east direction BRRR!! temps during this period very low day time likely 0-2 c nationwide,now on to the final part of december the weather turns nasty i feel,as we see low pressure taking over,no let up in the cold so large snow fall amounts always more to the south i feel.night time temps probly not as cold as the start of december due to cloud cover and unsettled conditions more likely -2 -3c overnight! what a cold month i feel! if things do develop the way i see it TEMPERATURES could well be as much as 2-2.5c! below the norm!

JANUARY-im not particuarly liking this month,very unsettled throughout i think with limited amounts of dry and bright weather,but with SNOW and cold weather always being the main talking points.this could be a very severe month i can not stress that more! i dont hav much more detail to put into this month,with the main focus though being snow and cold temperatures! most likely outcome,TEMPS below by 1-7 c! i dont think as cold as december,but a far more messy month with lots more snow!

going onto FEBRUARY im not so certain this far out,only it will continue cold all month just not too sure what pattern the weather will take.i have far more confidence in the previous months,though i suspect it wont be as bad as JANUARY weatherwise,but equally as cold! temperature values-again 1.5c below the average.

so to conclude all of this evidence, i can only see it going one way colder than last years very cold winter the worst of the temperatures in december a very cold month really! generally bitter throughout this winter though as you can see by my predicted temperature values.

here it is:

NOV 0-5C BELOW

DEC 2.5C BELOW!!

JAN 1.7C BELOW

FEB 1.5C BELOW

And what sources have you used for this forecast? Or have you just made it up?

evidence...what evidence? Good funny read though.

Edited October 8, 2010 by weathe20

[PB22]

Good grief, the ramping has started early this year! Heaven help the admins/mods on here when/if we end up with a mild winter as there seems to be some very high expectations around this year. Yes, there are some favourable signs for another colder winter, but its very early days yet.

[TonyH]

Forget winter for a few days.

Close on 21c here!

[in the vale]

ell i previously made a LRF winter forecast,but im making a few adjustments to it as i see things slightly differently now!

LUKES FORECAST:

here it is:

NOV 0-5C BELOW

DEC 2.5C BELOW!!

JAN 1.7C BELOW

FEB 1.5C BELOW

Luke - I quote you from the Model Discussion thread "rite ok can sombody explain to me what this chart is suggesting,sorry i am new to this??" and yet you post a detailed long range winter forecast. Where are you getting your ideas from if not from the weather models? An explanation is needed here.

[weathe20]

Luke - I quote you from the Model Discussion thread "rite ok can sombody explain to me what this chart is suggesting,sorry i am new to this??" and yet you post a detailed long range winter forecast. Where are you getting your ideas from if not from the weather models? An explanation is needed here.

He just made it up. Load of complete tossh.

[snowlover2009]

And what sources have you used for this forecast? Or have you just made it up?

evidence...what evidence? Good funny read though.

do you just laugh at people every time they do a long range forecast. it is a bit ignorant, you did this before in the other thread.

lets see your forecast then.....

He just made it up. Load of complete tossh.

you are really rude. he obviously made it up, as he said in the MO thread that he was new to all this, no need for the rudeness. what is wrong with doing a forecast that has been totally made up its a winter thread, if you dont like it then go away. not everyone on here is middle age you know and has the certain knowledge that others have, young people are members on here and i say good going to them!!!!

Edited October 8, 2010 by snowlover2009

[in the vale]

He just made it up. Load of complete tossh.

We don't know this. I am just interested in Luke's explanation of where he gets his forecast from. No-one should suggest it is tosh until we know more facts. Luke's postings have provoked much reaction and debate, and whilst people are allowed to post their thoughts in this thread, it would be useful to know where the thoughts are coming from.

Luke?

[snowlover2009]

We don't know this. I am just interested in Luke's explanation of where he gets his forecast from. No-one should suggest it is tosh until we know more facts. Luke's postings have provoked much reaction and debate, and whilst people are allowed to post their thoughts in this thread, it would be useful to know where the thoughts are coming from.

Luke?

i agree. i dont think he has the big knowledge like some of the other members, he may only be a kid and had just made it up because he doesn't have the knowledge to know all the bigger factors in a lrf. does it really matter if this is the case???

[in the vale]

i agree. i dont think he has the big knowledge like some of the other members, he may only be a kid and had just made it up because he doesn't have the knowledge to know all the bigger factors in a lrf. does it really matter if this is the case???

I am just interested - for all we know his Dad is the Senior LR Forecaster with the METO!

[snowlover2009]

I am just interested - for all we know his Dad is the Senior LR Forecaster with the METO!

lmao

[Radiating Dendrite]

ell i previously made a LRF winter forecast,but im making a few adjustments to it as i see things slightly differently now!

LUKES FORECAST:

i see NOVEMBER as being a fairly cool month overall not too cold more likely cool,temps 0-5c below average.although i wouldnt be suprised if the southeast in particular saw them pushing a tad lower,due to air coming off the cold continent at times.as i feel that a east,southeasterly wind will prevail a lot of the time. so basically the main weather features being messy drizzle on a often scale,but i do see things turning cold later on,possibly very cold towards month end so more like sleet by that time,no significant snow though i feel at this stage yet....

DECEMBER-i believe will be a month of two halfs,the weather the first 2-possibly 3 weeks! very cold bitter you could call it.with a big block established over UK.the winds alternating northwest north or anywhere from the east direction BRRR!! temps during this period very low day time likely 0-2 c nationwide,now on to the final part of december the weather turns nasty i feel,as we see low pressure taking over,no let up in the cold so large snow fall amounts always more to the south i feel.night time temps probly not as cold as the start of december due to cloud cover and unsettled conditions more likely -2 -3c overnight! what a cold month i feel! if things do develop the way i see it TEMPERATURES could well be as much as 2-2.5c! below the norm!

JANUARY-im not particuarly liking this month,very unsettled throughout i think with limited amounts of dry and bright weather,but with SNOW and cold weather always being the main talking points.this could be a very severe month i can not stress that more! i dont hav much more detail to put into this month,with the main focus though being snow and cold temperatures! most likely outcome,TEMPS below by 1-7 c! i dont think as cold as december,but a far more messy month with lots more snow!

going onto FEBRUARY im not so certain this far out,only it will continue cold all month just not too sure what pattern the weather will take.i have far more confidence in the previous months,though i suspect it wont be as bad as JANUARY weatherwise,but equally as cold! temperature values-again 1.5c below the average.

so to conclude all of this evidence, i can only see it going one way colder than last years very cold winter the worst of the temperatures in december a very cold month really! generally bitter throughout this winter though as you can see by my predicted temperature values.

here it is:

NOV 0-5C BELOW

DEC 2.5C BELOW!!

JAN 1.7C BELOW

FEB 1.5C BELOW

Do you work for PWS???