Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Paranoid

Hurricane Otto

Recommended Posts

000

WTNT32 KNHC 060837

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010

500 AM AST WED OCT 06 2010

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.2N 67.0W

ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO

ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM S OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION

SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0

WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13

KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST

AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND

THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER

TODAY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41043 SUGGEST THAT THE MINIMUM

CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN

LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Convection seems to be blowing up very near the centre of Subtropical Depression Seventeen now, and it appears the system should become fully tropical soon. 17L is moving northwestwards but should sharply turn to the northeast ahead of an advancing trough in about 24hrs time. If 17L becomes fully tropical, it could become a hurricane as it has about 48hrs of low shear and warm sea temperatures. As subtropical cyclones strengthen slower and don't become so intense, the NHC have predicted a 50kt peak if 17L remains subtropical. 17L is expected to move away from Hispaniola so shouldn't be of much threat here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We now have SS Otto, who has rapidly strengthened since the last advisory and is now actually getting close to Hurricane strength.

000

WTNT32 KNHC 062035

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010

500 PM AST WED OCT 06 2010

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.2N 68.3W

ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND

ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSW OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST. THE STORM

IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE

NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THE NORTHEAST...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED...ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...

OTTO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE

TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS...AND OTTO COULD TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL STORM BY

THURSDAY...AND THEN BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR

FRIDAY MORNING.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE

CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN

LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE

NEXT DAY OR SO.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Otto has now become fully tropical as the ULL plaguing the storm moves away. Convection is persisting directly over the centre, and this is now where the strongest winds are located meaning Otto is no longer a subtropical storm. With a couple days of low shear and warm sea temps, Otto is forecast to become a hurricane prior to advancing over colder waters and higher shear which will induce extratropical transition. As Cookie says, and interesting evolution Otto has gone through!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some amazing images of this, very beautiful

75965549.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After a period of quiet we've got another one. Seemed to pop up out of nowhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Otto has strengthened decently today and has become the eighth hurricane of the season with intensity rising to 65kts. Otto has a solid central dense overcast with a developing eye. Shear will remain low and waters warm for another 36hrs, and I think Otto has a shot at becoming a cat 2 before extratropical transition is forecast to begin in 48hrs time. Interestingly, track forecasts for Otto have continued to shift south, and if this trend continues, then extratropical transition could be delayed as Otto remains over warmer water.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yup, intensity is up to 75kts this morning, however, intensification may now have ended. Otto is moving very quickly northeastwards now and has run into moderate to high shear. This has already given Otto a tilted look with the bulk of the convection beign sheared to the northeast of the LLC. Weakening is therefore expected over the next 24-36hrs. Beyond this, sea temps rapidly decline, and in combination with the shear, extratropical transition should begin.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now fully extratropical, racing northeastwards towards the Azores.

GFS is quite keen on weakening extratropical Otto then re-intensifying it west of Portugal late this week. Don't think it will visit us but something to watch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...