Antarctic Ice Discussion

[Methuselah]

Does this mean (Arctic-ice being so unquestionably in decline) that the Antarctic, where things are not yet so clear-cut, will be the main focus of future attempts at obfuscation?

[Interitus]

All doom and gloom isn't it?

No-one can say what shall happen in 15 years time, just as they couldn't 15 years ago or 30 years ago.

The public of the world are getting tired of the constant 'scare' stories that haven't really come true.

"Isn't the sea level actually dropping slightly atm?"

That sort of thing, it just makes me more and more confused.

I think I'll just go with my instincts

When you consider that the IPCC was formed in 1988 and the scant evidence of warming they had available at that time compared to now, they made a fair prediction at what was going to happen.

Either that or they have managed to make the most improbable luckiest guess for the following 24 years.

[keithlucky]

Antarctic sea ice still increasing

Edited September 15, 2012 by keithlucky

[Methuselah]

I think we can all be thankful for that, Keith!

[keithlucky]

I million sq km above norm http://t.co/WfAUb0PW.

Edited September 15, 2012 by keithlucky

[cyclonic happiness]

Not according to the latest Canadian poll. What are your instincts that appear to be overiding hundreds of scientific papers?

They're mine! and I don't read hundreds of scientific papers.

Humans have far too much smugness about their intelligence sometimes :-(

When you consider that the IPCC was formed in 1988 and the scant evidence of warming they had available at that time compared to now, they made a fair prediction at what was going to happen.

Either that or they have managed to make the most improbable luckiest guess for the following 24 years.

It not that improbable considering the Earth's been warming since the last ice age?

[Methuselah]

It not that improbable considering the Earth's been warming since the last ice age?

Have you forgotten the MWP?

[cyclonic happiness]

Have you forgotten the MWP?

Well it was a long time ago and my memory isn't what it used to be in the 16th century

[knocker]

Antarctic Sea Ice—A Polar Opposite?

Abstract

As the world's ice diminishes in the face of climate change—from the dramatic decline in Arctic sea ice, to thinning at the margins of both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, to retreating mountain glaciers the world over—Antarctic sea ice presents something of a paradox. The trend in total sea ice extent in the Antarctic has remained steady, or even increased slightly, over the past three decades, confounding climate model predictions showing moderate to strong declines. This apparent intransigence masks dramatic regional trends; declines in sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea region that rival the high-profile decline in the Arctic have been matched by opposing increases in the Ross Sea. Much of the explanation lies in the unique nature of the Antarctic sea ice zone. Its position surrounding the continent and exposure to the high-energy wind and wave fields of the open Southern Ocean shape both its properties and its connection to the atmosphere and ocean in ways very different from the Arctic. Sea ice extent and variability are strongly driven by large-scale climate variability patterns such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. Because many of these patterns have opposing effects in different regions around the continent, decreases in one region are often accompanied by similar, opposing increases in another. Yet, the failure of climate models to capture either the overall or regional behavior also reflects, in part, a poor understanding of sea ice processes. Considerable insight has been gained into the nature of these processes over the past several decades through field expeditions aboard icebreakers. However, much remains to be discovered about the nature of Antarctic sea ice; its connections with the ocean, atmosphere, and ecosystem; and its complex response to present and future climate change.

http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/25-3_maksym.pdf

[knocker]

Antarctic climate change over the twenty first century

Here we present a new assessment of Antarctic climate change over the 21st century based on data from the models that were developed as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (AR4). To provide more reliable estimates of future change, a weighting scheme was applied to the model output, which depends on a measure of their ability to reproduce the mean climate of the late 20th century. The results show a seasonal variation of increases in circumpolar westerlies around Antarctica, which show the largest increases of 27% in autumn. This seasonal cycle was found to be consistent with projected changes in the semi-annual oscillation (SAO). In summer and autumn the increases of the westerly wind component migrate sufficiently far south to be manifested as a reduction of the coastal easterlies. The surface warming averaged over the continent is projected to be 0.34°C dec^−1 with an inter-model standard deviation of 0.10°C dec^−1. More rapid warming occurs during the winter over regions of sea ice retreat, e.g., 0.51 ± 0.26°C dec^−1 around East Antarctica. Projections of total sea-ice area show a decrease of 2.6 ± 0.73 × 10⁶ km² (33%). There is a projected increase of net precipitation averaged over the continent of 2.9 ± 1.2 mm a^−1 dec^−1. The weighting gives a larger increase of the autumn SAO peak, up to 30% larger for April. This is consistent with larger weighted autumn increases of circumpolar westerlies, more sea ice reduction and resulting larger skin temperature increases.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2007JD008933.shtml

[BornFromTheVoid]

Antarctic sea ice area is now above 16 million km2, and is the 2nd highest area on record, after 2007. The anomaly is up to +978,000km2, which is holding currently holding the global anomaly between 1.5-2.0 million km2.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Edited September 16, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

The increases continue, with the anomaly now over 1 million, and the sea ice at it's most expansive on record for the time of year. The only other year that managed a higher area was 2007, which reached about 140k higher than the present area around September 20th.

http://arctic.atmos....nteractive.html

[cheeky_monkey]

Interesting the record highs levels of sea ice in Antarctica occur at the same time as record lows in the Arctic..2007 & 2012...coincidence?

[stewfox]

The increases continue, with the anomaly now over 1 million, and the sea ice at it's most expansive on record for the time of year. The only other year that managed a higher area was 2007, which reached about 140k higher than the present area around September 20th.

http://arctic.atmos....nteractive.html

I'm sure its going to be headline news in all the tabloids

Any strong correlation between when we reach max in the south and the min in north and vice versa over the last 30 years ?

[jonboy]

Probabl not. Our wonderful planet likes to compensates with gains in one place for losses elsewhere.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'll check out some correlations between the losses in the Arctic and gains in Antarctica when I can, though I suspect it's just a coincidence. It's hard to imagine a mechanism that could connect the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice in that way.

Unfortunately though, even the record highs in Antarctica can't compensate much. The global ice area anomaly is still around 1.5 million km2 below the 79-08 average

[knocker]

Does not the paper I posted # 184 attempt to explain some of this?

[stewfox]

Does not the paper I posted # 184 attempt to explain some of this?

There is nothing there about correlation just trying to explain the increase in ice in the Antartica

Its interesting record highs 2007 and 2012 Antartica are matched by record lows of 2007 and 2012 in the Artic. Over a 30 yr period the chance of that being random about 1000 to 1 ? Someone can do the maths

[songster]

Interesting the record highs levels of sea ice in Antarctica occur at the same time as record lows in the Arctic..2007 & 2012...coincidence?

Yes. Steven Goddard (no "warmist" he) recently posted this graph.

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/09/16/correlation-between-arctic-and-antarctic-sea-ice-anomalies/

Unfortunately he's an idiot, and doesn't actually know what an r^2 value of 0.05 actually means (i.e. it proves there's no correlation whatsoever), hence the misleading headline.

[knocker]

There is nothing there about correlation just trying to explain the increase in ice in the Antartica

So work out the difference,

[Interitus]

Of course both years also featured the UK's wettest summers since 1912. The ice totals are most likely coincidence, circulations such as ENSO and PDO can affect both regions but probably not to this effect. Here is a good article comparing climate change at the poles -

Contrasting climate change in the two polar regions (Turner, J., Overland, J. 2009).

The two polar regions have experienced remarkably different climatic changes in recent decades. The Arctic has seen a marked reduction in sea-ice extent throughout the year, with a peak during the autumn. A new record minimum extent occurred in 2007, which was 40% below the long-term climatological mean. In contrast, the extent of Antarctic sea ice has increased, with the greatest growth being in the autumn. There has been a large-scale warming across much of the Arctic, with a resultant loss of permafrost and a reduction in snow cover. The bulk of the Antarctic has experienced little change in surface temperature over the last 50 years, although a slight cooling has been evident around the coast of East Antarctica since about 1980, and recent research has pointed to a warming across West Antarctica. The exception is the Antarctic Peninsula, where there has been a winter (summer) season warming on the western (eastern) side. Many of the different changes observed between the two polar regions can be attributed to topographic factors and land/sea distribution. The location of the Arctic Ocean at high latitude, with the consequently high level of solar radiation received in summer, allows the ice-albedo feedback mechanism to operate effectively. The Antarctic ozone hole has had a profound effect on the circulations of the high latitude ocean and atmosphere, isolating the continent and increasing the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, especially during the summer and winter.

http://onlinelibrary...09.00128.x/full

[knocker]

New climate history adds to understanding of recent Antarctic Peninsula warming

Results published this week by a team of polar scientists from Britain, Australia and France adds a new dimension to our understanding of Antarctic Peninsula climate change and the likely causes of the break-up of its ice shelves.

The first comprehensive reconstruction of a 15,000 year climate history from an ice core collected from James Ross Island in the Antarctic Peninsula region is reported this week in the journal Nature. The scientists reveal that the rapid warming of this region over the last 100 years has been unusual and came on top of a slower natural climate warming that began around 600 years ago. These centuries of continual warming meant that by the time the unusual recent warming began, the Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves were already poised for the dramatic break-ups observed from the 1990’s onwards.

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest warming places on Earth – average temperatures from meteorological stations near James Ross Island have risen by nearly 2°C in the past 50 years.

http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/press_releases/press_release.php?id=1892

[Methuselah]

New climate history adds to understanding of recent Antarctic Peninsula warming

Results published this week by a team of polar scientists from Britain, Australia and France adds a new dimension to our understanding of Antarctic Peninsula climate change and the likely causes of the break-up of its ice shelves.

The first comprehensive reconstruction of a 15,000 year climate history from an ice core collected from James Ross Island in the Antarctic Peninsula region is reported this week in the journal Nature. The scientists reveal that the rapid warming of this region over the last 100 years has been unusual and came on top of a slower natural climate warming that began around 600 years ago. These centuries of continual warming meant that by the time the unusual recent warming began, the Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves were already poised for the dramatic break-ups observed from the 1990’s onwards.

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest warming places on Earth – average temperatures from meteorological stations near James Ross Island have risen by nearly 2°C in the past 50 years.

http://www.antarctic...ase.php?id=1892

No it hasn't! it's all cobblers!

[knocker]

No it hasn't! it's all cobblers!

Damn, I forgot that.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm still firmly of the opinion that it is changes to the Antarctic that humanity should fear most. I know that the visual spectacle of the lost polar ice cap is compelling and the impacts it will drive in our global climate will be shocking but the rapid impacts from Antarctic mass loss that we are bound to see will drive rapid physical changes to our planet.

Repairing damage from weather extremes is one thing but re-locating cities is a whole other undertaking!

The added energy now entering the climate system from the albedo flip across the pole will rapidly work it's way south and I believe it is great enough to overcome the 'Ozone forcings' that have kept Antarctica safe from the worst of our warming this past 30years. Sadly all of that warmth will flood into the continent (I believe) over the coming 10 years and begin the period of rapid melt such temps must drive.

Remember it was 35 million years ago under a CO2 burden of 450ppm that saw Antarctica 'ice free'. We are now past 400ppm. The Arctic was lost somewhere between 350 and 400ppm.

Edited September 18, 2012 by Gray-Wolf