Antarctic Ice Discussion

[Devonian]

And just for the record neither have I. Simply interesting scientific theories about something that is an interesting scientific conundrum. If people link to a new scientific paper it doesn't mean that they assume it is 'fact'.

 

Ditto.

[keithlucky]

Another daily record in Antarctic record cold recorded in Antarctic http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/07/record-cold-in-antarctica-threatens-lives-of-british-antarctic-survey-members-during-power-outage-with-little-chance-of-rescue/

[drgl]

Hmm, looks like its going off the scale!!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another daily record in Antarctic record cold recorded in Antarctic http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/07/record-cold-in-antarctica-threatens-lives-of-british-antarctic-survey-members-during-power-outage-with-little-chance-of-rescue/

 

What happened with the BAS research station is interesting. Makes you realise the dangers that these scientists go through simply as part of their job.

[Gray-Wolf]

But they're scientists engaged on studying our planets climate BFTV? Surely their gravy train would keep them warm????

[knocker]

Antarctic outlet glacier mass change resolved at basin scale from satellite gravity gradiometry

 

Abstract

The orbit and instrumental measurement of the GOCE satellite mission offer the highest ever resolution capabilities for mapping Earth's gravity field from space. However, past analysis predicted that GOCE would not detect changes in ice sheet mass. Here we demonstrate that GOCE gravity gradiometry observations can be combined with GRACE gravity data to estimate mass changes in the Amundsen Sea Sector. This refined resolution allows land ice changes within the Pine Island Glacier (PIG), Thwaites Glacier and Getz Ice Shelf drainage systems to be measured at respectively −67 ± 7, −63 ± 12, and −55 ± 9 Gt/yr over the GOCE observing period of November 2009 to June 2012. This is the most accurate pure satellite gravimetry measurement to-date of current mass loss from PIG, known as the “weak underbelly†of West Antarctica because of its retrograde bed slope and high potential for raising future sea-level.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060637/abstract?utm_content=buffer1ec73&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[keithlucky]

Antarctic sea ice continues to rocket upwards and Port LUX breaks absolute cold record http://t.co/Ijm3MOCpvv

Edited August 16, 2014 by keithlucky

[knocker]

How much snow falls on the Antarctic ice sheet?

 

Abstract. Climate models predict Antarctic precipitation to increase during the 21st century, but their present day Antarctic precipitation differs. A model-independent climatology of the Antarctic precipitation characteristics, such as snowfall rates and frequency, is needed to assess the models, but it is not yet available. Satellite observations of precipitation by active sensors has been possible in the polar regions since the launch of CloudSat in 2006. Here, we use two CloudSat products to generate the first multi-year, model-independent climatology of Antarctic precipitation. The first product is used to determine the frequency and the phase of precipitation, while the second product is used to assess the snowfall rate. The mean snowfall rate from August 2006 to April 2011 is 171 mm year^−1 over the Antarctic ice sheet, north of 82° S. While uncertainties on individual precipitation retrievals from CloudSat data are potentially large, the mean uncertainty should be much smaller, but cannot be easily estimated. There are no in situ measurements of Antarctic precipitation to directly assess the new climatology. However, distributions of both precipitation occurrences and rates generally agree with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim data set, the production of which is constrained by various in situ and satellite observations, but does not use any data from CloudSat. The new data set thus offers unprecedented capability to quantitatively assess Antarctic precipitation statistics and rates in climate models.

 

http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1577/2014/tc-8-1577-2014.pdf

[knocker]

Just published: most comprehensive review ever of the glaciation of Antartica

 

A major new review of the last glaciation of the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet has just been published by Quaternary Science Reviews. The special issue of the journal includes a suite of review papers involving an international team of experts regarding the last glaciation of the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet. This review, which comprises six review papers and an overview paper in a special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews, is now complete and all papers have been accepted for publication. As this is the most important, up to date and inclusive review ever to be attempted for the glaciation and recession of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it represents a major step forward in our understanding of palaeo ice-sheet dynamics, provides a benchmark against which future research needs can be identified and highlighted, and provides a compilation of data unlike anything seen before, which can be used to test and calibrate numerical ice-sheet models.

 

http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/2014/08/just-published-comprehensive-review-ever-glaciation-antartica/

[stewfox]

Just published: most comprehensive review ever of the glaciation of Antartica

 

http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/2014/08/just-published-comprehensive-review-ever-glaciation-antartica/

 

 

 

Not a light read but some interesting observations

[knocker]

New reconstruction of Antarctic near-surface temperatures: Multidecadal trends and reliability of global reanalyses

 

Abstract

A reconstruction of Antarctic monthly mean near-surface temperatures spanning 1958–2012 is presented. Its primary goal is to take advantage of a recently revised key temperature record from West Antarctica (Byrd) to shed further light on multidecadal temperature changes in this region. The spatial interpolation relies on a kriging technique aided by spatio-temporal temperature covariances derived from three global reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and CFSR). For the full extent of the reconstruction, we find statistically significant annual warming in the Antarctic Peninsula and virtually all of West Antarctica, but no significant temperature change in East Antarctica. Importantly, the warming is of comparable magnitude both in central West Antarctica and in most of the Peninsula, rather than concentrated either in one or the other region as previous reconstructions have suggested. The Transantarctic Mountains act, for the temperature trends, as a clear dividing line between East and West Antarctica, reflecting the topographic constraint on warm air advection from the Amundsen Sea basin. The reconstruction also serves to highlight spurious changes in the 1979–2009 time series of the three reanalyses that reduces the reliability of their trends, illustrating a long-standing issue in high southern latitudes. The study concludes with an examination of the influence of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on Antarctic temperature trends. Our results suggest that the trend of the SAM toward its positive phase in austral summer and fall since the 1950s has had a statistically significant cooling effect not only in East Antarctica (as already well documented) and but also (only in fall) in West Antarctica.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00733.1

[4wd]

A statistically significant cooling. That doesn't sound like backup for all the attempts to show it must be somehow warming.

[Gray-Wolf]

Has S.A.M. seen s similar 'tweak' to the Pacific trades in the ozone loss impacting the circulation patterns or has it just been synchronicity having Ozone destruction with a strong , and impacting, S.A.M. phase?

[knocker]

A statistically significant cooling. That doesn't sound like backup for all the attempts to show it must be somehow warming.

 

Good grief a new low. Cherry picking an abstract and then the usual nonsense soundbite.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Sea ice area now lower than 1985 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

 

Where's keith to tell us this is proof that Antarctic sea ice isn't increasing!?

[knocker]

Too busy reading the Daily Fail.

[knocker]

Antarctic sea-level rising faster than global rate

 

A new study of satellite data from the last 19 years reveals that fresh water from melting glaciers has caused the sea-level around the coast of Antarctica to rise by 2cm more than the global average of 6cm.

 

http://www.sciencecodex.com/antarctic_sealevel_rising_faster_than_global_rate-140653

[stewfox]

Sea ice area now lower than 1985 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

 

Where's keith to tell us this is proof that Antarctic sea ice isn't increasing!?

 

Supports the idea of natural variations rather then 'finding' reasons why it cant be natural variation

[knocker]

Supports the idea of natural variations rather then 'finding' reasons why it cant be natural variation

 

And is this also down to natural variations?

 

 

Researchers at the University of Southampton detected the rapid rise in sea-level by studying satellite scans of a region that spans more than a million square kilometres.

The melting of the Antarctic ice sheet and the thinning of floating ice shelves has contributed an excess of around 350 gigatonnes of freshwater to the surrounding ocean. This has led to a reduction in the salinity of the surrounding oceans that has been corroborated by ship-based studies of the water.

[jonboy]

help now lower than 1985 global warming must be bad antacrtic ice is dooooomed!!!!!

[stewfox]

And is this also down to natural variations?

 

I don't know what a recent study has got to do with 1985 levels ? Providing the link would be useful

 

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/08/140831150207.htm

 

Climate change is a significant time variation in weather patterns occurring over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather around longer-term average conditions (i.e., more or fewer extreme weather events)

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change

 

 

Any evidence of changes that can not be explained other then re natural variability on the globe yet ? No 

[stewfox]

help now lower than 1985 global warming must be bad antacrtic ice is dooooomed!!!!!

 

In need people find loads of reasons why the ice is greater then previous decades , then find its not (at the moment) greater then 1985. Does this then suggests all the theories (wind etc) are now off the agenda ?

Edited August 31, 2014 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

In need people find loads of reasons why the ice is greater then previous decades , then find its not (at the moment) greater then 1985. Does this then suggests all the theories (wind etc) are now off the agenda ?

 

Some things are competing with warming. There's more than simply natural variation alone, or warming alone. Even either one of them has many more complicated facets than many here would like to believe. Unfortunately, some cannot get passed the idea that if there is more sea ice coverage, it must be cooling.

[stewfox]

Some things are competing with warming. There's more than simply natural variation alone, or warming alone. Even either one of them has many more complicated facets than many here would like to believe. Unfortunately, some cannot get passed the idea that if there is more sea ice coverage, it must be cooling.

 

Not sure anyone , on this forum at least , thinks more sea ice implies it must be cooling. Its the 'percentage' re 'man made' and 'natural variation' that often drives the 'debate'.

[Gray-Wolf]

Sea ice area now lower than 1985 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

 

Where's keith to tell us this is proof that Antarctic sea ice isn't increasing!?

 

This appears to be a common thing when you look at those folk, enamored by what the climate misleaders peddle, who only talk about the period of 'growth' in Antarctic sea ice whilst neglecting the losses from the 50's through to the early 80's? Why , when the data is there do they chose to ignore (willfully?) the full picture in favour of one which supports their own agenda?

 

To lose upwards of 20% of the ice cover around the continent ( which must have a part to play in the loss of the Larsen's?) is a very telling event, to regain some of those losses ,at a rate of less than 2% per decade could , at best, be seen as a partial recovery yet it is constantly displayed as a 'thing' in itself without mention of all the ice we need recover before any 'growth' can be seen?

 

I've said before that if the current rate of expansion continues then we need wait another 70 years before we see Antarctic ice regain the levels we saw in the 50's ( and through the whaling years where we have good 'ice edge' data) . Does anyone really think that this is what we will see occurring or will the continued warming once again lead to a crash in ice levels once 'naturals' (SAM/Circumpolar's/ozone hole etc) again favour ice loss?

 

As you know I believe ( ever more firmly) that the current set of global naturals are on the verge of a 'switch' back to favouring rapid atmospheric warming. This may well signal the resumption of ice retreat around the Southern continent and allow for a more rapid mass loss across the continent. This itself could lead to further issues compounding 'carbon sinks' around the southern oceans by allowing a cool surface layer to reduce absorption leading to the type of positive CO2 anom we saw earlier this year around Antarctica?