Antarctic Ice Discussion

[keithlucky]

The concensus is pretty much that global temperatures have been at or near record levels in April, May and June. In our little corner of the world the CET since the start of the year is the highest on record - but of course despite a notably mild winter, snow in parts of the Scottish highlands was possibly record breaking. Clearly warmer temperatures in the short term do not preclude some increases in ice and snow, which vice versa do not rule out warming.

[knocker]

Keith as you keep posting that chart it is very remiss of you not to credit it. And it is a data set for the lower tropopause.

 

Credit. Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, well known Potty Peer and denier in residence in the House of Lords.

Edited August 4, 2014 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

As you've been told, numerous times, that data set has a cool bias, which even one the most respected climate sceptics, Dr Roy Spencer, acknowledges! Why do you think all other measures show an increase?

[4wd]

 

 

 Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, well known Potty Peer and denier in residence in the House of Lords.

To clarify this silly insulting post:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jul/18/climate-monckton-member-house-lords

[keithlucky]

LOL so you dismiss UK met and also the dismiss that the IPPC  who cannot explain the pause ,and the European space agency http://www.theguardian.com/science/european-space-agency,with the classic deep sea ate my heat,as they scratch there heads to find an explanation for the pause.

Edited August 4, 2014 by keithlucky

[knocker]

Are you talking about this Keith which I assume you have read?

 

The British House of Commons Energy and Climate Change Committee has issued its report on the AR5 WG I. A couple of brief extracts.

 

On the issue of climate sensitivity the report states that

The WGI contribution to AR5 has considered the full range of both Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response and assessment possible within the constraints of the evidence available at the time. It does not appear that a consistent pattern for higher or lower sensitivities than that stated in the WGI contribution to AR5 has emerged since its publication. (Paragraph 48)

 

and on the global temperature anomaly

 

Periods of hiatus are consistent with earlier IPCC assessments that non-linear warming of the climate is to be expected and that forced climate changes always take place against a background of natural variability. The current period of hiatus does not undermine the core conclusions of the WGI contribution to AR5 when put in the context of the overall, long-term global energy budget. Despite the hiatus, the first decade of the 2000s was the warmest in the instrumental record and overall warming is expected to continue in the coming decades. (Paragraph 53)

 

and on models

 

The models used in the IPCC’s Assessment Reports have a successful history of simulating past climate and their future projection of substantial warming over the next century in all but the most aggressive mitigation scenarios is well founded and overwhelmingly clear. (Paragraph 64)

[BornFromTheVoid]

LOL so you dismiss UK met and also the dismiss that the IPPC  who cannot explain the pause ,and the European space agency http://www.theguardian.com/science/european-space-agency,with the classic deep sea ate my heat,as they scratch there heads to find an explanation for the pause.

 

Why do you pick the one data set that shows no warming when you know there are issues with it? All others show warming, the time frame is just too short to be statistically significant so far. Your link is broken, and I'm not in disagreement with the UK met, IPCC or ESA. Odd that you suddenly call on those big names that you so regularly dismiss, when it suits you.

[knocker]

Why do you pick the one data set that shows no warming when you know there are issues with it? All others show warming, the time frame is just too short to be statistically significant so far. Your link is broken, and I'm not in disagreement with the UK met, IPCC or ESA. Odd that you suddenly call on those big names that you so regularly dismiss, when it suits you.

 

Quite agree Born. If you want to calculate your own trends from all the data sets.

 

http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html

 

Or you can use Nick Stokes' temperature trend viewer.

 

http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/temperature-trend-viewer.html

Edited August 5, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

To clarify this silly insulting post:http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jul/18/climate-monckton-member-house-lords

 

Indeed let's clarify my insulting post with a couple quotes from Monckton.

 

 

“The breaching of the Berlin Wall and the melting down of the Iron Curtain marked not the end of totalitarianism, but the end of its confinement. The new menace to liberty is groupthink gone global. The globalization of groupthink is guilefully disguised under the green fig leaf of pietistic environmentalism. From behind that fig leaf, emerges today’s tumescent totem of totalitarian tyranny: climate change.â€

 

 

[T]here is only one way to stop AIDS. That is to screen the entire population regularly and to quarantine all carriers of the disease for life. Every member of the population should be blood-tested every month […] all those found to be infected with the virus, even if only as carriers, should be isolated compulsorily, immediately, and permanently.â€

 

The man is barking and yet linked regularly on here and I'm doing the insulting!

 

http://www.desmogblog.com/christopher-monckton

[Gray-Wolf]

I think that alongside the explosion in asthma and eczema  society has been ravaged by 'socially conditioned Asperger's' ?

 

As folk who suffer the more traditional form of the disability will attest to social contact can be a fraught business where 'acts' of normal social behaviour are played out to cover for their social dysfunction?

 

i feel that the emotional retardation that modern day life/parenting inflicts on some members of society leaves them prone to acts of social exhibitionism so that they might parade just how 'normal' they are in front of their peers, attempts to appear 'interesting and informed', attempts to prove themselves 'intellectually superior', 'morally superior', 'entertaining'....and the list goes on. All naught but playlettes ,researched and rehearsed for the use of in various social situations and performed for the assembled peer group like a trained monkey......

 

There are plenty of 'tells' to recognise such injured persona's and personally I believe we see such displays on a daily basis through contact with 'the climate debate'? 

[jonboy]

This thread seems to have little to do with Antarctic Ice of late perhaps we could only post items related to the topic rather than the 'look at me' type of posts that have have filled this page!!!

[BornFromTheVoid]

This thread seems to have little to do with Antarctic Ice of late perhaps we could only post items related to the topic rather than the 'look at me' type of posts that have have filled this page!!!

 

I think we have a rare point of agreement JB!

 

So, we have record high Antarctic sea ice at the moment. We've heard from the research scientists who provide us with this data and are experts on Antarctica, that much of this is down to freshening of the ocean water from increased precip and melt water run-off which reduces warm upwelling and enhances sea ice production, and a tightening of the polar westerlies (likely due to the ozone hole and decadal changes in the Southern Annular Mode) preventing the incursion of warm air, spreading out the ice in some areas and piling it up and thickening it in others.

 

Are there any other reasons for the increase (with evidence to support them)?.

[mikeworst]

Yup, colder means more ice but i expect that is too obvious.  http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/11/08/antarctic-temperature-trends/

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yup, colder means more ice but i expect that is too obvious.  http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/11/08/antarctic-temperature-trends/

 

I mean peer reviewed sources. You can get groups like that to say anything you want in a report, such as smoking not causing cancer of CFCs not damaging ozone. 

 

Still, rather than cooling, their conclusion was 

“Overall there have not been statistically significant Antarctic near-surface temperature trends since the International Geophysical Year" of 1957-58â€

 

So that doesn't support cooling either.

[Devonian]

Yup, colder means more ice but i expect that is too obvious.  http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/11/08/antarctic-temperature-trends/

 

 

 

Why do you assume he knows what he's talking about? You should challenge your assumptions...

[mikeworst]

Oh ok-  http://icecap.us/images/uploads/antarctica_white_paper_final.pdf      http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v415/n6871/abs/nature710.html

 

Using station data with long record lengths, a sensitivity study indicates that the trend tends to stabilize after a record length of two decades is available. The current historical satellite dataset is thus long enough to make the trend analysis meaningful. The 20-yr trend from the satellite data over the ice sheet was estimated to be −0.042 ± 0.067°C yr^−1 and is consistent with −0.008 ± 0.025°C yr^−1 derived from station data for the same period. Analysis of the 45-yr trend from station data, however, yielded a warming trend of about 0.0124 ± 0.0076°C yr^−1, which is consistent with previous studies (e.g., Raper et al. 1984; Sanson 1989; Jacka and Budd 1991; Weatherly et al. 1991; Jones 1995).

The slight cooling of the entire ice sheet observed in both in situ and satellite records during the last 20 yr is intriguing since during the same time period a general warming is being observed globally (Jones et al. 1999).

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013%3C1674%3AVATIAS%3E2.0.CO%3B2 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v415/n6871/full/nature710.html

[knocker]

From a much later paper in 2009

 

Satellites confirm half-century of West Antarctic warming

 

The Antarctic Peninsula juts into the Southern Ocean, reaching farther north than any other part of the continent. The southernmost reach of global warming was believed to be limited to this narrow strip of land, while the rest of the continent was presumed to be cooling or stable.

 

Not so, according to a new analysis involving NASA data. In fact, the study has confirmed a trend suspected by some climate scientists.

"Everyone knows it has been warming on the Antarctic Peninsula, where there are lots of weather stations collecting data," said Eric Steig, a climate researcher at the University of Washington in Seattle, and lead author of the study. "Our analysis told us that it is also warming in West Antarctica."

 

 

The new analysis shows that Antarctic surface temperatures increased an average of 0.22°F (0.12°C) per decade between 1957 and 2006. That's a rise of more than 1°F (0.5°C) in the last half century. West Antarctica warmed at a higher rate, rising 0.31°F (0.17°C) per decade. The results, published Jan. 22 in Nature, confirm earlier findings based on limited weather station data and ice cores.

 

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/warming_antarctica.html

Edited August 5, 2014 by knocker

[mikeworst]

O’Donnell et al 2010 Refutes Steig et al 2009 http://climateaudit.org/2010/12/02/odonnell-et-al-2010-refutes-steig-et-al-2009/

[Devonian]

O’Donnell et al 2010 Refutes Steig et al 2009 http://climateaudit.org/2010/12/02/odonnell-et-al-2010-refutes-steig-et-al-2009/

 

Oh yes, bless my soul, O'Donnell 2010 - can't beat a bit of recycled hair splitting....Anyway, it's a nice half volley for someone in better Antarctic form than me.

[knocker]

O’Donnell et al 2010 Refutes Steig et al 2009 http://climateaudit.org/2010/12/02/odonnell-et-al-2010-refutes-steig-et-al-2009/

 

Eric Steig did reply to this.

 

West Antarctica: still warming

 

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/02/west-antarctica-still-warming-2/

Edited August 5, 2014 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

None of them suggest cooling, Mike, at the worst they suggest no real trend.

[keithlucky]

None of them suggest cooling, Mike, at the worst they suggest no real trend.

Massive increase in Antarctic sea ice today  risen 240,000 sq km in one day 700.000 sq km in one week needs 1,000.000 sq km in about 60 days to beat previous record.

Edited August 5, 2014 by keithlucky

[stewfox]

Massive increase in Antarctic sea ice today  risen 240,000 sq km in one day

 

Thanks for posting the facts, not seen much of that lately

 

I wish people would post something along the lines "here is  one or two theories that 'explain' ice increases rather then post them as fact.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Thanks for posting the facts, not seen much of that lately

 

I wish people would post something along the lines "here is  one or two theories that 'explain' ice increases rather then post them as fact.

 

I certainly never claimed that the theories put forward for the sea ice increases were fact. I simply suggested that they're contributing and asked for other suggestions with evidence. I thought the discussion was going rather well here, for once.

[knocker]

And just for the record neither have I. Simply interesting scientific theories about something that is an interesting scientific conundrum. If people link to a new scientific paper it doesn't mean that they assume it is 'fact'.