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Antarctic Ice Discussion


pottyprof

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Passengers supporting the expedition.

 

http://www.spiritofmawson.com/aae-supporters/

 

 

Perhaps a little more detail on political ideologies and hidden agendas although a bit difficult with the latter as they are hidden. Which is more than be said of Watts. Anyway sticking to the facts and not fairy land the science case.

 

http://www.spiritofmawson.com/the-science-case/

 

 

Congratulations are in order for the shortest, concise, scientific paper explaining the increase in sea ice.

Well perhaps you have an alternative explanation for increased ice then. Keep taking the cat pills!

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/press_releases/press_release.php?id=1967

 

 

What precisely do you mean by that stupid comment?

I've read this article before and the main point they seem to skirt around is for ice to expand we need the surrounding oceans to be colder. There is no doubt in my mind that Antarctica isn't experiencing any warming either in the interior or the peninsula knocker, yes we have seen big break offs around the parts of  peninsula but IMO these are down to an increase in snow and ice and warmer currents which are normal anyway.

 

The comment was a joke knocker, nothing more nothing less.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

Why is Anthony Watts getting stick for pointing out they are a bunch of idiots who have caused huge expense and inconvenience in rescue attempts.I think it's smoke screening to obfuscate the extensive thick ice which apparently they were not allowed to believe was there because of the real agenda of the expedition to get 'disturbing footage of climate change' in the medai.They got the media coverage alright but not in the desired way. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Why is Anthony Watts getting stick for pointing out they are a bunch of idiots who have caused huge expense and inconvenience in rescue attempts.

I think it's smoke screening to obfuscate the extensive thick ice which apparently they were not allowed to believe was there because of the real agenda of the expedition to get 'disturbing footage of climate change' in the medai.

They got the media coverage alright but not in the desired way.

 

Also did you notice some of the media coverage on this where they cited unusual weather conditions as the excuse instead of being trapped in ice.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

It's just appalling seamanship to sail into ice choked waters.It's not 1913, they must have been fully aware of ice and weather conditions.

In short - politically motivated irresponsible idiots.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon

It's just appalling seamanship to sail into ice choked waters.It's not 1913, they must have been fully aware of ice and weather conditions.

In short - politically motivated irresponsible idiots.

 

A politically motived post if I ever saw one. Struth don't YOU know sea ice moves about in Antarctica?

 

You provide NO, ZERO evidence at all for your claims. They're clearly made simply to damage reputations. Poor show..

 

Sadly, this thread is being damaged by people setting out to rubbish a scientific expedition and troll (and for the second time the bait has worked for me....) rather than for its true purpose - to discuss Antarctica sea ice..

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

A politically motived post if I ever saw one. Struth don't YOU know sea ice moves about in Antarctica?

 

You provide NO, ZERO evidence at all for your claims. They're clearly made simply to damage reputations. Poor show..

 

Sadly, this thread is being damaged by people setting out to rubbish a scientific expedition and troll (and for the second time the bait has worked for me....) rather than for its true purpose - to discuss Antarctica sea ice..

Lol, what is scientific about getting stuck in ice that shouldn't be there.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Lol, what is scientific about getting stuck in ice that shouldn't be there.

 

Good of you to confirms Dev's point. I'm amazed that some are defending Watt's reaction to this. Actually i lie like a hairy egg.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Personally I find it highly amusing how a bunch of freeloaders became stuck in ice that shouldn't have been there. Let this be a lesson boys and girls that Mother Nature doesn't give two hoots for political ideologies and hidden agendas. Antarctica ice is advancing if anything and obviously for it to advance then the waters around Antarctica must be colder now than previously.

 

Do you think air temperatures matters? Or what about the salinity of the water and how that changes the freezing point. What about ridging and thickness? Winds driving ice outward from the continent?

Don't you think any of those have a big effect on sea ice?

 

The logic is beginning to drift towards this type, "all the stars, the sun and the moon appear to go around us, so we must be the centre of the universe".

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Do you think air temperatures matters? Or what about the salinity of the water and how that changes the freezing point. What about ridging and thickness? Winds driving ice outward from the continent?Don't you think any of those have a big effect on sea ice? The logic is beginning to drift towards this type, "all the stars, the sun and the moon appear to go around us, so we must be the centre of the universe".

Hi. BFTV. Yes these factors also play a big part but we still have to see an increase in ice and a decrease in sea temps for ice to expand in the way it has down there.
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Hi. BFTV. Yes these factors also play a big part but we still have to see an increase in ice and a decrease in sea temps for ice to expand in the way it has down there.

 

I don't think so. This expansion of sea ice has been studied for years.

 

 

Liu, et al (2004) report that total Antarctic sea ice (the area covered by at least 15% ice concentration) has increased significantly since 1979, by about 13,295 sq. km. per year. Regionally, there has been a large increase in the central Pacific sector and a smaller decrease in the Weddell Sea. Although ENSO and the Antarctic Oscillation appear to influence sea ice trends, they cannot explain them. There may be“less understood large-scale processes at work†influencing sea ice.

 

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/antarctica_white_paper_final.pdf

 

The number of more recent papers have been attempts to get to grips with the “less understood large-scale processes at workâ€. Do you honestly think colder sea temps qualifies as a less understood large-scale process and in any case would have been overlooked by numerous Antarctic specialists?

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Hi. BFTV. Yes these factors also play a big part but we still have to see an increase in ice and a decrease in sea temps for ice to expand in the way it has down there.

 

But that's not the case SI.

For example, you could see SSTs increase, but a decrease in salinity would still encourage extra ice formation as ice could then form at a higher temperature.

Or, you could go from a situation where the ice is kept close to the continent by the wind, only for the wind to shift a blow the ice outwards. As the water near Antarctica will quickly refreeze forming new ice, extra ice gets blown away from the continent, increase extent. This could also happen with warming.

 

There are lots of things which can cause extra ice formation, regardless of temperature. Things can be complicated, otherwise, we'd have figured it all out already!

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

But that's not the case SI.

For example, you could see SSTs increase, but a decrease in salinity would still encourage extra ice formation as ice could then form at a higher temperature.

Or, you could go from a situation where the ice is kept close to the continent by the wind, only for the wind to shift a blow the ice outwards. As the water near Antarctica will quickly refreeze forming new ice, extra ice gets blown away from the continent, increase extent. This could also happen with warming.

 

There are lots of things which can cause extra ice formation, regardless of temperature. Things can be complicated, otherwise, we'd have figured it all out already!

All good points you raise BFTV, I think we could be looking at combination all the points raised by the  both of us. Happy New Year by the way.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

All good points you raise BFTV, I think we could be looking at combination all the points raised by the  both of us. Happy New Year by the way.

 

Agreed, the situation certainly involves numerous factors.

 

Happy new year!

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Didn't one of the pasted pieces mention 'glacial ice' that had blown out to entrap the vessel? We know that we are seeing the normal round of summer calving ( as the sea ice opens up the coastal strips) so for the wind to take this further out into the ocean is nothing odd?

 

The piece also noted 3m to 4m thick ice which lend credence to the ice origin as most of the winter pack around Antarctica only makes 2m?

 

So what do we have? A vessel that can handle 'light ice' finding itself surrounded by glacial ice much thicker than the vessel can handle? so thick that other ice breakers are not up to the job either.

 

Where does this leave the climate debate about Antarctica then? Exactly where it was surely? No 'colder than normal' , no 'extra sea ice trapping the vessel', no idiots at the helm. We have a boat becoming surrounded by the remnants of the end of a glacier.

 

Maybe we should panic about the coastal warming leading to excessive calving ( propping up sea ice levels for the time of year due to it's resilient nature?)......LOL!

 

On that point I've not seen much discussion about the unravelling of the deeply fissured peninsula side of PIG? The AGU talks did not that once PIG moved back from the 'choke point' we could expect rapid losses from W.A.I.S. as the calving front expanded. Are we seeing the mechanism that will allow PIG to make this jog inland with the fissured edge crumbling allowing the rapid disintegration of the centre and opposite flank?

 

EDIT: I was just wondering how the 'other place' will handle the eventual breakup of the ice shelves surrounding Antarctica? We currently have the big berg from the PIG calve entering into the sea ice equation and are told that we ought expect the rest of Larsen B to let go maybe later this year? Eventually we will have so much glacial ice among the sea ice as to lengthen the period that we see ice in the ocean around Antarctica. At that point will we be told that this represents Antarctic cooling? The fact that Antarctic sea ice is staying at higher levels over summer ( due to the presence of significant glacial bergs) means it must be getting colder? it reminds me of the Arctic 'recovery years' where we watched the last of the old paleocryistic collapse and spread ( into the now named 'rotten ice') and so enlarge the sea ice extent/area.

 

God help us when Ross gives way, and an shelf the size of France and over 200ft thick, dumps it's ice into the circumpolar current for redistribution around the southern continent? they will be telling us an ice age is on the way surely?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/01/antarctica-ship-rescue-plan-foiled-shokalskiy?

 

Looks like all of that 'cold weather' has delayed the helicopter rescue?

 

Apparently 'Heavy Rain' made the attempt impossible? Cold, hmmm, rain, hmmm.

 

I'm starting to get the impression that we will find out that a large shelf/glacial 'slump' placed a lot of ice into the ocean in their locale and all the tales we've read about 'extensive  sea ice' may have been a tad exaggerated? When you think of the occasional Berg sightings from South island, NZ, you begin to realise that glacial/shelf ice, in areas beyond the general limit of the ice pack ice, must not be an uncommon thing?

 

I'm sure we'll get a fuller description of the event when the folk are back on land but presently we hear tales of 5m thick ice thwarting rescue efforts? Is that total ice depth or freeboard ( glacial ice would have no problem having so much ice above water?)? I'm sure we'll also find out which glacier the ice came from and whether it represents a larger calve or whether this is a patch of ice from the disintegration of a much larger berg from some of the shelf calving events over the past couple of years? 

 

It would be odd if we eventually found that the ice came from an area of rapid glacial thinning and really did represent the impacts of warming? (LOL)

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

GW she is 100 nautical miles east of the French base Dumont D'Urville.

 

Turney, who is professor of climate change at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, said satellite images indicated that their vessel had become stuck in ice which had broken away from a glacier.

 

The fierce winds had pushed it into an area of normally open sea, blocking the ship's progress, and this ice was now three to four metres thick in some places, although in others there were gaps with no ice.

post-12275-0-38504100-1388586853_thumb.g

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

Do you not think the heavy rain was where the air rescue is starting from?Otherwise an extraordinary convoluted series of posts trying to convince us it's the wrong sort of ice.I don't suppose a great deal of glacier has slumped into the sea during the Antarctic winter and spring.In any case that's what they do, usually the annual release of bits at the edge would steam off to terrorise the South Atlantic but apparently the sea ice is currently so extensive and thick it cannot move away.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Do you not think the heavy rain was where the air rescue is starting from?Otherwise an extraordinary convoluted series of posts trying to convince us it's the wrong sort of ice. 

 

Well listening to a live radio communication with the ship this morning they reported rain. I expect this was code for heavy snow.

 

Nothing convoluted about it just reporting what is known at the moment. Convince us (?) I assume is a joke. As Gavin Schmidt said in his AGU lecture, "with some you cannot engage".

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Posted
  • Location: Raunds, Northants
  • Weather Preferences: Warm if possible but a little snow is nice.
  • Location: Raunds, Northants

Rain is normal for this latitude for this time of year  so nothing interesting there. The facts are that antarctic ice is well above the 30 year normal and those incompetents got stuck in it, simples.

Edited by mikeworst
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Not when they report being stuck in glacial ice it's not mike? no one is arguing the trend in sea ice but what the ship encountered was not sea ice! The gaurdian has a series of articles and photo's from the expedition and it shows then taking ice cores from the ice that they are trapped in so we will know , soon enough, which glacier the ice mass came from.

 

Unless you think that sea ice 100 nautical miles from shore, in late december, around /antarctica makes 4m to 5m thickness that is????(LOL)

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

 "with some you cannot engage".

What's to 'engage' with, there's no way to argue constructively with obsessed activists.I occasionally post my opinion, and if you don't agree so be it.

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

So why was all this glacial ice hanging about, and why sail into it.Ice breaks off glacier snouts all the time, this is not some new and troubling development.If it didn't beak off and float away it would have reached Tasmania by now.In the past the area was sometimes clear of ice by now so that far less powerful vessels could reach the shore. 

no one is arguing the trend in sea ice but what the ship encountered was not sea ice!

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