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Antarctic Ice Discussion


pottyprof

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

Well if Sky news say that , it must be right then , all I did was post the most up to date  scientific study I could find ,, but if Sky news say me ,and a bunch of scientists are wrong ,, who am I to argue ( in case you missed it , I will post it again below )

https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/521/2018/tc-12-521-2018.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

It was a study from sat images between 2008 to 2015?

The Russian team was on the ice in the austral summer of 2017 ( with robot subs).

With rapidly changing/evolving areas of the planet we must allow for sudden changes both in our understanding but also behaviours of the thing being studied?

The recent flip in sea ice cover around Antarctic will have impacts on all the shelfs as we remove the layer damping out swells earlier in the season ? If we recall the collapse of Larsen B was aided by storm swells coming all the way from the Seas off Alaska!

If ice cover can be deduced from global average temps and CO2 levels then we should expect, in the final shakedown, West Antarctica to lose all of its ice cover over coming decades. (Of course it would be foolish to think global temps will reduce/CO2 to reduce over the coming years!)

With global temps , since 2014, exceeding the rate of change we saw over the last warming spourt through the 80's/90's we will pop through 1.5c above pre industrial by 2030 at the latest ( so much for Paris) and the places fastest warming will be the Arctic and far north plus the coastal fringes of Antarctic plus all the peninsula.

For the folk gladly fooled by the paid deniers through the noughties I'm sorry to report the conditions they exploited ( all man made ) are rapidly healing so the impacts that detract from AGW are now fading with the rapid loss of dimming over the Pacific and the Ozone hole over Antarctica.

If you miss the Ozone hole , don't fret! The disruption of the Polar night Vortex is placing Ozone into direct sunlight these days so causing holes over our neck of the woods? I think Feb 2017 saw a big hole over the UK?

As for dimming? Well this years slowing in global rotation is threatening us with an uptick in both earthquakes and volcanic eruptions........ maybe we'll see a big eruption to dim out the low solar sun? but then the CO2 will still be there when the soot washes out and the sulphates are returned to earth......

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
1 hour ago, tablet said:

Well if Sky news say that , it must be right then , all I did was post the most up to date  scientific study I could find ,, but if Sky news say me ,and a bunch of scientists are wrong ,, who am I to argue ( in case you missed it , I will post it again below )

https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/521/2018/tc-12-521-2018.pdf

Antarctic as a whole is melting. You can't use regional variability to claim it isn't melting when overall almost every study and measure suggested it is melting.
Even the cryosphere paper you posted agrees:

Including modeled rates of snow accumulation and basal melt, the Antarctic ice sheet lost ice at an average rate of 183 ± 94 Gt yr−1 between 2008 and 2015

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

a point to Mr Void  , if you are taking sections out of the conclusion , lets look at this one  

in 2015 with 78% of the increase

in discharge concentrated to glaciers flowing into the

Amundsen Sea and another 10% comes from glaciers flowing

into Marguerite Bay. Glaciers and ice streams feeding

major ice shelves were remarkably steady with small heterogeneous

changes in velocity. Strongly negative net mass

budgets are apparent for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and

are largely due to mean rates of ice discharge greatly exceeding

rates of snow accumulation. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet

experienced near-balance conditions with modest gains in

Dronning Maud and Enderby Land driven by increased rates

of precipitation.

Over the last decade, it is evident that larger-scale changes

in discharge are relatively modest (< 7% for all basins) compared

to the fractional imbalance between discharge and surface

mass budget

78% of ice loss coming from west Antarctica into the Amundsen sea

the whole of Antarctica is not melting , and using " regional variability"  is just a cop out

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

Mr Wolf , you raise different questions , lets look at them , the earth is slowing down , I could only find an old NASA report from 2003 ( away from the tabloid rags which are full of rubbish ) , which didn't give many answers as to why , although it is known the earth's rotational speed varies and slows and speeds up from time to time ( 5 year periods ) but I believe it was the Guardian that ran with it , it appears to be a paper by  Roger Bilham of the University of Colorado in Boulder and Rebecca Bendick of the University of Montana in Missoula , the conclusion in Sciencemag.org was " Bilham and Bendick have only fuzzy, hard-to-test ideas about what might cause the pattern they found" so until they come up with some evidence , it's just a hypothesis ,  of course that doesn't mean they are wrong , but the globe is in an increased  state of volcanic and seismic activity now , and have been for a while so the nice men at NASA might just be covering their backs in case a declining magnetosphere from an oncoming solar minimum causes more volcanic and seismic activity

you said " It was a study from sat images between 2008 to 2015 "  it was published in February 2018  

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actually ,,,

Received: 25 April 2017 – Discussion started: 4 May 2017

Revised: 21 November 2017 – Accepted: 27 November 2017 – Published: 13 February 2018

I can only read published papers , you may have a Delorean  with a flux capacitor , I don't

you also said "  since 2014, exceeding the rate of change "  let's see what NASA say about 2014

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new sea ice maximum , well where do you go from a record maximum , I would suggest down ( so did NASA and they were right )

https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-new-record-maximum

I would point out that none of the scientists I have posted here are " paid deniers " , just scientists trying to find facts , not opinion , not consensus , not belief , but cold hard facts , like science used to be about in the good old days , if Antarctica looses ice due to a storm from anywhere , that's weather , not climate , and I will be watching , with great interest , on how things turn out this year

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Posted
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania

Ah very interesting discussion points, 'Likes' all round for interesting points of views and knowledge from different sources. Hey Gray-Wolf I'm going to ask you because you like hypothesising, what is your forecast for Tasmania based on your readings and hunches. We are noticing the poleward contraction of the Southern Ocean westerly wind belt which seems to be delivering a very dramatic change to the climate. Whats your views on future consequences of Antarctic and ocean melting, and effects on the climate down here in the long-run. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Hi Styx!

I think the contraction of the westerlies is tied into the healing of the Ozone hole over recent years? This 'flip' is allowing the sea ice crash around Antarctica and this means warm waters getting through to the bases of the shelfs there and retreat inland of grounding lines.

If Thwaites lets go off the ridge it has been grounded on then there is nothing to stop its rapid retreat and the constant production of bergs year round.

What does that mean for Tas? Well I suppose I'd have to say it will become more extreme?

As in the northern hemisphere you now appear to be seeing a move toward the kind of cold plunges we are becoming hardened to? You will probably see an uptick in heavy snow events over winter and more active storms over summer?

The influence of Australia will also bring you extended drought sequences and increases of your record high temps I imagine?

As with us in the UK just be glad you have so much water around you as it should help calm extremes down!!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

Available online 14 April 2018 - Perspectives of Antarctic weather monitoring and research efforts

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1873965218300495

“The present paper reviews the progress of India’s scientific research in polar meteorology. The analysis of 25 years meteorological data collected at Maitri station for the period 1991–2015 is presented in the paper. The observed trend in the temperature data of 19 Antarctic stations obtained from READER project for the period 1991–2015 has also been examined. The 25 years long term temperature record shows cooling over Maitri station. The Maitri station showed cooling of 0.054 °C per year between 1991 and 2015, with similar pronounced seasonal trends. The nearby Russian station Novolazarevskaya also showed a cooling trend of 0.032 °C per year. … The temperature trend in average temperature of 19 Antarctica stations is also examined to ascertain the extent of cooling or warming trend (Supplementary Table_S1). The majority of stations in East Antarctica close to the coast show cooling or no significant trend. … Turner et al. (2016) using stacked temperature record found a significant cooling trend for the Antarctic Peninsula for the period 1999–2014.”

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

January 2018 -Active layer monitoring in Antarctica: an overview of results from 2006 to 2015

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322398735_Active_layer_monitoring_in_Antarctica_an_overview_of_results_from_2006_to_2015

“Active layer monitoring in Antarctica: an overview of results from 2006 to 2015 … Air temperatures showed significant regional differences within the study areas. In the western Antarctic Peninsula region, Vestfold Hills and northern Victoria Land, a slight air temperature cooling was detected, while at other sites in Victoria Land and East Antarctica the air temperature was more irregular, showing no strong overall trend of warming or cooling during the study period (Figure 2). The Antarctic Peninsula region has been reported as the most rapidly warming part of Antarctica (e.g. Turner et al., 2005, 2014), but cooling has been reported since 2000 (Turner et al., 2016). Relatively stable air temperature conditions during the past 20 years were reported in Victoria Land (Guglielmin & Cannone, 2012).”

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

published 11th Dec 2017 - No Access Low-Frequency Climate Modes and Antarctic Sea Ice Variations, 1982–2013

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0184.1

“Compelling evidence indicates that the large increase in the SH sea ice, recorded over recent years, arises from the impact of climate modes and their long-term trends. The examination of variability ranging from seasonal to interdecadal scales, and of trends within the climate patterns and total Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) for the 32-yr period (1982–2013), is the key focus of this paper. The results herein indicate that a progressive cooling has affected the year-to-year climate of the sub-Antarctic since the 1990s.”

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

First published: 14 December 2017 - Modeling the Dynamics of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over the Antarctic Plateau With a General Circulation Model

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017MS001184

“The near‐surface Antarctic atmosphere experienced significant changes during the last decades (Steig et al., 2009; Turner et al., 2006). In particular, the near‐surface air over the Western part of Antarctica exhibits one of the major warming over the globe (Bromwich et al., 2013a), with heating rates larger than 0.5 K per decade at some places. Despite a significant warming in the end of the 20th century, the Antarctic Peninsula has been slightly cooling since 1998, reflecting the high natural variability of the climate in this region (Turner et al., 2016). East Antarctica has experienced a slight cooling trend (Nicolas & Bromwich, 2014; Smith & Polvani, 2017) particularly marked during autumn.”

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

You are aware that everything changed in 2013 as reflected in sea ice numbers over ther following years?

A human induced tweak on the Antarctic climate is now waning and the AGW forcings are playing catch up for over 30 yrs lost influence.

Sadly time's up.

Changes across the north, over the coming months, will see such a string signal evolve that even Antarctica will not escape it and with the threads some of the major shelfs halting the ocean terminating Glaciers advances are seen to be hanging by the impacts there will not be inconsequential.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

no Mr Wolf , I am not aware of what you speak of , I am only aware of the scientific research that is going on , here on this planet ,  as we speak ,,, the things you are talking about are alien to me  , they do not reflect the current state of scientific understanding of the world we live in , I have provided many paper on the current level of understanding of the global systems that govern our wold ,,, but you will not be swayed , buy reason , or science

the world is not going to end if a fiery ball any  time soon , and very soon , a different set of circumstances will present themselves  , and the ones that reposted untruths , will have blood on their hands

the one's that propagated lies , will be the villains , but their arrogance will save them from any feeling of guilt  

Edited by tablet
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Well then in some ways then there will be a bonus to what is becoming increasingly likely across our north this summer?

Somewhere inside I always knew it would take an unmistakable impact from AGW before the planet would be allowed to grasp just how dire our situation was and it looks ever more likely that it is to be this year and it will be arctic Sea ice loss that brings it.

The potential for rapid Antarctic change is mechanical and so is harder to pin down but again, if we believe the Science, can occur at any time now that the Shelfs are primed for it. One wrong swell under tidal max's and Thwaites could begin its retreat.

Of course the climate chaos we face from sudden Arctic Sea ice collapse will not stay in the Northern Hemisphere so this year could also form the forcing for the domino collapse of a number of current 'primed' climate forcings with CH4 from Yamal/East Siberian Shelf Sea being top of the list if the Arctic does see a high temp/high ice loss year.

We are well past the period of 'waiting' for climate change to show impact.

Those who still insist we have nothing to worry about, or worse that some unexpected ice age is set to descend, will have a few questions to answer come August if we do see a continuation of current conditions into summer this year in the Arctic.

nsidc_global_extent_byyear_b.png?attacha

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

April 9, 2018, British Antarctic Survey - New study reveals increased snowfall in Antarctica over last two centuries

https://phys.org/news/2018-04-reveals-snowfall-antarctica-centuries.html

"Our new results show a significant change in the surface mass balance (from snowfall) during the twentieth century. The largest contribution is from the Antarctic Peninsula, where the annual average snowfall during the first decade of the 21st century is 10% higher than at the same period in the 19th century."

 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
  • Location: Near Newton Abbot or east Dartmoor, Devon
8 hours ago, tablet said:

April 9, 2018, British Antarctic Survey - New study reveals increased snowfall in Antarctica over last two centuries

https://phys.org/news/2018-04-reveals-snowfall-antarctica-centuries.html

"Our new results show a significant change in the surface mass balance (from snowfall) during the twentieth century. The largest contribution is from the Antarctic Peninsula, where the annual average snowfall during the first decade of the 21st century is 10% higher than at the same period in the 19th century."

 

Yes, what would be expected in a warming climate...

You did read what they said?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
14 minutes ago, tablet said:

a warming climate ?

khgntu6565656.thumb.JPG.b48b86bdc7e9bcdc2f25f0aa47ee5295.JPG

@tablet instead of just posting links to images without a sources or explanation, perhaps you could try, if it's not too much work, 2 things?

1: Add a source (link) for your images, with a little explanation as to how the data is collected, how accurate it is, how long the data set is, especially when it's not one we are all familiar with.

2: Explain what you think it proves. Clearly, you appear to think that the above images disproves Dev's comment that extra snowfall over Antarctica is expected with warming. I have my suspicions as to why you think the above graph disproves that, but I'll like to hear your explanation rather than making assumptions myself.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

what part of "Antarctic sea Ice thickness tracker " ( NOAA)  are you having trouble with Void ? is this not an Antarctic Ice Discussion thread ?

 

Edited by tablet
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
17 minutes ago, tablet said:

what part of "Antarctic sea Ice thickness tracker " ( NOAA)  are you having trouble with Void ? is this not an Antarctic Ice Discussion thread ?

 

What exactly are you attempting to insinuate, tablet - that the globe is not currently warming? That it is really falling? Or are you merely letting us all know that global warming (just like global anything-else) doesn't occur at an even rate in either all corners of the globe or at all times? 

Or are you, as is so often the case with CCDs - merely obfuscating?

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

i'll tell you what I'm getting at void , look at these charts , every one of them is based on one set of data , the USHCN station readings , but by using temperature homogenization , every time it's been updated , it looks a little different , cooler in the past , warmer in the present , which is strange to say the least

1059316472_.opi99809jhuj.thumb.JPG.a5cc85b557a51ab28bbc321c29c5d038.JPGrve4v54PG.thumb.JPG.ef3e9f0bdfa11d4be97fa093318c3831.JPG

in 2005 NASA released this

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then in 2007 ,,this 212794966_pi909jki.thumb.JPG.b655e73790faed9f1545f5888a7aa146.JPG

which is strange because the temperature didn't alter all that much during that period , and NASA do the same with tidal gauges

lkk0899879.thumb.JPG.84791c56b23af4c1f2f2715fc00280ff.JPG

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, tablet said:

ED Stone , I'm insinuating nothing , I'm showing you ,, but you can choose to believe what you want

Showing me what? All the things that my BSc failed to show me?

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield

why don't you take a look at the USHCN station readings  , and then with your BSc , you can explain the difference between the original data and the Hansen , GISS 97 and the GISS 2015  charts then ?

Edited by tablet
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