Antarctic Ice Discussion

[Tasboy]

I assume that is going into the next IPCC report ?

Since you asked…

If it was scientifically interesting it probably could go in there. However statements like this are pretty useless – particularly when they are wrong - like the one I quoted.

Scientists aren’t so much interested in a useless statistic (such as this and many similar statistics on this list) but more interested in “why†or “what are the ramifications or the broader context of this statisticâ€. And they certainly aren’t interested in people’s “feelings†about long-term outlooks: eg “I have a feeling we will smash the global sea ice records this yearâ€. What hypothesis are you making and how can you prove or disprove you hypothesis? Seriously.

In my work environment you would need to provide a cake if that sort of prediction did not occur.

[stewfox]

Since you asked…

If it was scientifically interesting it probably could go in there. However statements like this are pretty useless – particularly when they are wrong - like the one I quoted.

Scientists aren’t so much interested in a useless statistic (such as this and many similar statistics on this list) but more interested in “why†or “what are the ramifications or the broader context of this statisticâ€. And they certainly aren’t interested in people’s “feelings†about long-term outlooks: eg “I have a feeling we will smash the global sea ice records this yearâ€. What hypothesis are you making and how can you prove or disprove you hypothesis? Seriously.

In my work environment you would need to provide a cake if that sort of prediction did not occur.

 

You are correct it was a stupid comment , I'm surprised I made it.

 

ps is Chocolate cake ok ?

Edited April 8, 2015 by stewfox

[keithlucky]

Antarctic sea ice 1.3million above average an increase of 200,000 sq km.

Edited April 9, 2015 by keithlucky

[BornFromTheVoid]

Antarctic sea ice 1.3million above average an increase of 200,000 sq km.

 

 

 

Antarctic ice nearly half a million km2 below 2008, defying all climate change deniers. /s

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Edited April 9, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[stewfox]

Antarctic ice nearly half a million km2 below 2008, defying all climate change deniers. /s

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

 

We are not going to get daily records every day. The fact is as KL stated we are 1.5 million above the long term average which given we have just started the refreeze season is remarkable . That's 3 times the size of France. How that happens in a warming world I will leave for the 'experts'.

Edited April 9, 2015 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

We are not going to get daily records every day. The fact is as KL stated we are 1.5 million above the long term average which given we have just started the refreeze season is remarkable . That's 3 times the size of France. How that happens in a warming world I will leave for the 'experts'.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82872-arctic-sea-ice-discussion-2015-the-melt-season/?p=3188092

[stewfox]

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82872-arctic-sea-ice-discussion-2015-the-melt-season/?p=3188092

 

Not sure what a link to the Arctic has to do with the Antarctica  ?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Not sure what a link to the Arctic has to do with the Antarctica  ?

 

My post was just copying what keith said at the start of his, but applying it to Antarctica, to see how different the reaction might be. They're both equally pointless statements.

[stewfox]

My post was just copying what keith said at the start of his, but applying it to Antarctica, to see how different the reaction might be. They're both equally pointless statements.

 

I never understand how some folk don't see the Southern Hemisphere as part of the globe.

 

If the Arctic was 1.5m above the long term mean I'm sure most folk wouldn't see that as pointless or irrelevant.

[knocker]

I never understand how some folk don't see the Southern Hemisphere as part of the globe.

 

If the Arctic was 1.5m above the long term mean I'm sure most folk wouldn't see that as pointless or irrelevant.

 

And I don't understand how you have got the unmitigated gall to say, "I never understand how some folk don't see the Southern Hemisphere as part of the globe" when there have been numerous scientific papers published on Antarctic sea ice and glacier melt (something that always seems to be forgotten), many of them on here.

 

So if you think that increasing Antarctic sea ice is proof that global warming isn't happening, which is obviously yours and others opinion, then put the pithy comments into context and support them with some decent scientific arguments. And at the same time explain why Antarctic glaciers are melting at an increasing rate which at the end of the day is far more important.

 

And further to that point. You and your fellow deniers wrongly accuse people of 'forgetting' Antarctica whilst at the same time steadfastly refusing to mention  Antarctic glacier melt. Selective amnesia? Perhaps it doesn't fit in with your agenda?

Edited April 10, 2015 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

C'mon knocks! you know full well if all the ice slipped off Antarctica,and into the ocean, 'they' would only mention the increase in sea ice there..........

[knocker]

The Sea-Level Fingerprint of West Antarctic Collapse

 

Recent projections of sea-level rise after a future collapse of theWest Antarctic Ice Sheet (for example, the Fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report) assume that meltwater will spread uniformly (that is, eustatically) across the oceans once marine-based sectors of the West Antarctic are filled. A largely neglected 1977 study predicted that peak values would be 20% higher than the eustatic in the North Pacific and 5 to 10% higher along the U.S. coastline. We show, with use of a state-of-the-art theory, that the sea-level rise in excess of the eustatic value will be two to three times higher than previously predicted for U.S. coastal sites.

 

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/323/5915/753.abstract

[stewfox]

And I don't understand how you have got the unmitigated gall to say, "I never understand how some folk don't see the Southern Hemisphere as part of the globe" when there have been numerous scientific papers published on Antarctic sea ice and glacier melt (something that always seems to be forgotten), many of them on here.

 

So if you think that increasing Antarctic sea ice is proof that global warming isn't happening, which is obviously yours and others opinion, then put the pithy comments into context and support them with some decent scientific arguments. And at the same time explain why Antarctic glaciers are melting at an increasing rate which at the end of the day is far more important.

 

And further to that point. You and your fellow deniers wrongly accuse people of 'forgetting' Antarctica whilst at the same time steadfastly refusing to mention  Antarctic glacier melt. Selective amnesia? Perhaps it doesn't fit in with your agenda?

I have never suggested global warming isn't happening i just see (at present) perhaps 0.1c to 0.4c by century end

 

I also don't take every google reference as proof of man made global warming. One can find counter arguments. Obviously no one knows why Antarctica sea ice is increasing be it natural, man made or something else. I am just not one of those people who say 'she be a witch' because she wears black, i need to see more evidence.

 

-----------------------------

According to a recent statement by NASA, West Antarctic glaciers and sea ice are melting due to atmospheric global warming. What NASA fails to mention is that geothermal heat from the West Antarctic rift (part of that area's tectonic plate system) is warming the ocean water, which in turn is causing the ice sheet to gradually melt faster than normal.

 

http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-melting-from-geothermal-heat-not-global-warming.html

[keithlucky]

Antarctic sea ice up to 1.4 million  above normal

Edited April 11, 2015 by keithlucky

[knocker]

I have never suggested global warming isn't happening i just see (at present) perhaps 0.1c to 0.4c by century end

 

I also don't take every google reference as proof of man made global warming. One can find counter arguments. Obviously no one knows why Antarctica sea ice is increasing be it natural, man made or something else. I am just not one of those people who say 'she be a witch' because she wears black, i need to see more evidence.

 

-----------------------------

According to a recent statement by NASA, West Antarctic glaciers and sea ice are melting due to atmospheric global warming. What NASA fails to mention is that geothermal heat from the West Antarctic rift (part of that area's tectonic plate system) is warming the ocean water, which in turn is causing the ice sheet to gradually melt faster than normal.

 

http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-melting-from-geothermal-heat-not-global-warming.html

 

You say, "I also don't take every google reference as proof of man made global warming". Funny but you seem to accept the nonsense from denier blogs as proof that it isn't. And at the same time you also reject the ton of scientific evidence (not proof), compiled by the vast majority of scientists in various disciplines whose opinion is that CO₂ is the main driver behind global warming and climate change.

 

There is geothermal activity below the Thwaites Glacier that may be contributing slightly to the melt but I will just quote GW's reply when this last came up.

 

 

And we're expected to think that a rift system ( do you know how long the evolution of a rift system takes Kieth?....maybe look to the African rift valley...where we evolved...for your answers?) is suddenly causing excess melt around west Antarctica? Nothing to do with the migration of warmed southern ocean waters to that coastline ( as we have plotted , with the help of our seals in bath caps, over the past 15 years?) as it picked its way through the ocean floor canyons and undercut the strengthened circumpolar current?

 

The warm water doing the main damage is caused by ocean temperatures around Antarctica becoming more layered due to global warming. And of course there are other glaciers besides Thwaites.

 

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-10/uons-caw100114.php

 

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/melt-of-key-antarctic-glaciers-unstoppable-studies-find-17426

 

Antarctic Ice Shelves Melting at Accelerating Rate

 

 

Antarctica is pretty much covered with glaciers. Glaciers are dynamic entities that, unless they are in full melt, tend to grow near their thickest parts (that’s why those are the thickest parts) and mush outwards towards the edges, where the liminal areas either melt (usually seasonally) in situ or drop off into the sea.

 

Antarctic’s glaciers are surrounded by a number of floating ice shelves. The ice shelves are really the distal reaches of the moving glaciers floating over the ocean. This is one of the places, probably the place at present, where melting accelerated by human caused greenhouse gas pollution occurs. The ice shelves are fixed in place along their margins (they typically cover linear fjord like valleys) and at a grounding point underneath the shelf some distance form the ice margin but under sea level.

 

The collapse or disintegration of an ice shelf is thought to lead to the more rapid movement of the corresponding glacial mass towards the sea, and increased melting. This is the big problem right now with estimating the rate of glacial melting in the Antarctic. This is not a steady and regular process, as rapid disintegration of an ice shelf is possible. Most likely, Antarctic glacial melting over the coming decades will involve occasional catastrophic of an ice shelf followed by more rapid glacial melting at that point.

 

Unfortunately, the ice shelves are generally becoming more vulnerable to this sort of process, a new study just out in Science shows. From the abstract:

 

 

Antarctica's Totten Glacier, twice the size of Victoria, 'melting from below'

 

Warm ocean water is melting one of the world's biggest glaciers from below, potentially leading to a rise in sea levels, Australian scientists have discovered.

Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis recently returned to Hobart from Antarctica, with a team of 23 scientists who had used new technology to collect the first water samples near the Totten Glacier.

http://www.abc.net.a...m-below/6047076

 

http://io9.com/weve-...-1639502535/all

 

Increased ice losses from Antarctica detected by CryoSat-2

 

http://onlinelibrary...060111/abstract

 

Finally is there any particular reason why the same points are being peddled out every two or three months apart from the obvious one?

 

Edited April 12, 2015 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

I think that they have an odd relationship with the continent Knocks? Well, maybe the surface skim of the oceans around Antarctica? They appear willfully ignorant of both the losses from the land based ice and the plotted evolution of those losses that we ought to expect as the years roll by? It appears that as long as they can see sub 2m ice over the southern winter they are content......... sadly the folk who tough it out around the bases down there are becoming more and more concerned at the changes they are seeing there recently esp. since the cryosat (2) mission began to plot losses there.

[stewfox]

 

You say, "I also don't take every google reference as proof of man made global warming". Funny but you seem to accept the nonsense from denier blogs as proof that it isn't. 

 

----

Finally is there any particular reason why the same points are being peddled out every two or three months apart from the obvious one?

 

 

 

Why is everything nonence that you don't agree with ? Like we know what was going on under the antarctic ice shelf 50 or 100 yrs ago.

 

The obvious point is until we have proof of man made global warming you will continue to see growing evidence/debate to the contrary. If we had  some continuity in models and forecasting things may differ. If you think the globe will warm by 4/5c by end of century and sea levels will rise by 10 metres why debate it ?

 

-------------------------

 

“It’s not expected,†says Professor John Turner, a climate expert at the British Antarctic Survey. “The world’s best 50 models were run and 95% of them have Antarctic sea ice decreasing over the past 30 years.â€

--------------------

 

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/09/why-is-antarctic-sea-ice-at-record-levels-despite-global-warming

Edited April 12, 2015 by stewfox

[knocker]

You of course didn't also quote from your own link.

 

 

But Dr Claire Parkinson, a senior scientist at Nasa’s Goddard Space Flight Centre, says increasing Antarctic ice does not contradict the general warming trend. Overall the Earth is losing sea ice at a rate of 35,000 sq km per year (13,514 sq miles).

 

“Not every location on the Earth is having the same responses to climate changes. The fact that ice in one part of the world is doing one thing and in another part ice is doing another is not surprising. The Earth is large and as the climate changes it is normal to see different things going on,†says Parkinson.

 

And what is the growing evidence to the contrary?

 

And I also thought that this is the Antarctic, not the skeptic, thread. The skepticism/denier adherents seem to be spreading their wings far and wide these days.Not that it seems to produce any new rational arguments.

Edited April 12, 2015 by knocker

[4wd]

You of course didn't also quote from your own link.

 

 

And what is the growing evidence to the contrary?

 

And I also thought that this is the Antarctic, not the skeptic, thread. The skepticism/denier adherents seem to be spreading their wings far and wide these days.Not that it seems to produce any new rational arguments.

I'm sceptical of the global sea ice area claim in your quote.

Are we not supposed to notice it's garbage because it's attributed to someone at NASA

[knocker]

I'm sceptical of the global sea ice area claim in your quote.

Are we not supposed to notice it's garbage because it's attributed to someone at NASA

 

I have to say it's very unedifying to witness the denier illiterati falling out over there own link.

 

I repeat this is not the denier thread.

[mikeworst]

No Knocker this is not the denier thread because there is no such thing, but saying that I hope that you and your fellow clergy will forgive those having an opinion expressing it on this patch of virtual hallowed ground.

The arrogance is breath-taking and it is no wonder that our fellow forum users for the most part avoid the climate section.

Edited April 13, 2015 by mikeworst

[knocker]

Giant atmospheric rivers add mass to Antarctica’s ice sheet

 

Extreme weather phenomena called atmospheric rivers were behind intense snowstorms recorded in 2009 and 2011 in East Antarctica. The resulting snow accumulation partly offset recent ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet, report researchers from KU Leuven.   

 

Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow water vapour plumes stretching thousands of kilometres across the sky over vast ocean areas. They are capable of rapidly transporting large amounts of moisture around the globe and can cause devastating precipitation when they hit coastal areas.

 

Although atmospheric rivers are notorious for their flood-inducing impact in Europe and the Americas, their importance for Earth’s polar climate – and for global sea levels – is only now coming to light.

 

http://www.kuleuven.be/english/news/2015/giant-atmospheric-rivers-add-mass-to-antarcticas-ice-sheet

[knocker]

No Knocker this is not the denier thread because there is no such thing, but saying that I hope that you and your fellow clergy will forgive those having an opinion expressing it on this patch of virtual hallowed ground.

The arrogance is breath-taking and it is no wonder that our fellow forum users for the most part avoid the climate section.

 

Putting aside for one moment the nonsense terminology I see on reason whatsoever why I ( I obviously cannot speak for anyone else) should should accept opinions such as this:

 

 

Are we not supposed to notice it's garbage because it's attributed to someone at NASA

 

To dismiss the opinion of a senior scientist at NASA as garbage, without a hint of any scientific justification, is not only ignorant but, dare I say it, breath-takingly arrogant.

[mikeworst]

?

[stewfox]

 

To dismiss the opinion of a senior scientist at NASA as garbage, without a hint of any scientific justification, is not only ignorant but, dare I say it, breath-takingly arrogant.

 

I think he was being sarcastic as you were attributing my reference as garbage/  'denier' speak. 

 

Just to repeat.

 

------------

British Antarctic Survey (BAS) is one of the world's leading environmental research centres and is responsible for the UK's national scientific activities in Antarctica

It’s not expected,†says Professor John Turner, a climate expert at the British Antarctic Survey. “The world’s best 50 models were run and 95% of them have Antarctic sea ice decreasing over the past 30 years.â€

-----------

Edited April 13, 2015 by stewfox