Antarctic Ice Discussion

[Geoffwood]

4wd.

I find it strange that more often than not hemispheres are treated separately. Granted they differ due to topology but sometimes we have a parallel experiment. When polar jet streams become meridional from zonal in both hemispheres and one has less ice and the other more, we have to be careful about blaming it upon sea ice, for example. I find it very difficult on either post to not encompass both in my reasoning. What do you think?

[Nights King]

mullender83, Phenomenal. Look forward to seeing this on the news tonight!

Do you not feel that the media and scientific opinion and consensus are going to be proven wrong in due course?

 

Honestly Geoff my Jury is still out for me personally although I still clearly lean towards the sceptics view of thinking currently and the growth certainly looks impressive at the moment.    

 

Is that it for this year or will it go one higher?

[Interitus]

Indeed, it is somewhat concerning - and not because lots of additional ice is somehow pretended to be an indicator of warming.

 

This is the situation last month for example, according to NASA GISS, globally warmer than average but more so in the NH. Anomalous warmth also affects the Antarctic but note that the coldest areas are largely over the extended sea ice. The annular anomaly pattern reflects the circumpolar winds.

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

This is the situation last month for example, according to NASA GISS, globally warmer than average but more so in the NH. Anomalous warmth also affects the Antarctic but note that the coldest areas are largely over the extended sea ice. The annular anomaly pattern reflects the circumpolar winds.

 

 

I find these charts to be 'confusing'.

First of all for our part of the NH (UK, Continental Europe excl Scandinavia) the tenperature was 0 to 2degrees C BELOW the normal. Yet the chart above shows it to be between 0- 0.2 ABOVE the quoted average. Why is this?

I now understand (I think!) why people are getting upset by the gradual upward adjustment in temperaturdes historically.

Also large parts of North America were supposedly average and yet it is also seen to be above normal.

It is charts like these that make me wonder vabout the political slant of all this data.

MIA

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

I find these charts to be 'confusing'.

First of all for our part of the NH (UK, Continental Europe excl Scandinavia) the tenperature was 0 to 2degrees C BELOW the normal. Yet the chart above shows it to be between 0- 0.2 ABOVE the quoted average. Why is this?

I now understand (I think!) why people are getting upset by the gradual upward adjustment in temperaturdes historically.

Also large parts of North America were supposedly average and yet it is also seen to be above normal.

It is charts like these that make me wonder vabout the political slant of all this data.

MIA

 

You don't know why something appears as it does, so rather than trying to find out why that is, you automatically assume politically motivated upward adjustments? C'mon, you can do better than that.

[Midlands Ice Age]

BFTV

I do understand these charts....

I understand why the baseline compsrison It is set at 1951 - 1980.!!

Oh no it just happens to have been the coldest 30 years in the last 65 years.

Pure coincidence I am absolutely certain.

This is the well known technique employed to hide the current hiatus.

Lets look at the recent data.....

Oh dear me perhaps not.

MIA

[BornFromTheVoid]

BFTV

I do understand these charts....

I understand why the baseline compsrison It is set at 1951 - 1980.!!

Oh no it just happens to have been the coldest 30 years in the last 65 years.

Pure coincidence I am absolutely certain.

This is the well known technique employed to hide the current hiatus.

Lets look at the recent data.....

Oh dear me perhaps not.

MIA

 

*Sigh... you can choose the baseline for the anomalies on the map generator yourself, this isn't dastardly plan by NASA to trick you!

 

 

Anyway, how can the baseline used possibly change the trend or "hide the current hiatus"?

 

Stick with the conspiracy theories if that makes you feel better. You'll have plenty of friends here willing to give you a pat on the back no matter how ludicrous your claims are, provided they attempt to dispute AGW.

[stewfox]

4wd.

I find it strange that more often than not hemispheres are treated separately. Granted they differ due to topology but sometimes we have a parallel experiment. When polar jet streams become meridional from zonal in both hemispheres and one has less ice and the other more, we have to be careful about blaming it upon sea ice, for example. I find it very difficult on either post to not encompass both in my reasoning. What do you think?

 

Topology the holy grail that's used  to explain the differences but is it ?

 

How do we know that in the Arctic winter, without the constraint of the Canadian and Siberian coasts, sea ice wouldn’t be increasing there, which would perhaps make this Antarctic phenomenon less of a peculiarity?

 

It seems Topology is used only as a method to explain the increase in Antarctica ice in winter.

[knocker]

But if one takes into account smb loss of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica then it is the odd one out.

[Midlands Ice Age]

BFTV....

When I sent my reply above I had already checked the anamoly for the latest period and hence I knew that what I had depicted for Europe and America was true. Yet you still attacked me personally for pointing out that the graph was cherry picking in the extreme. I had already checked the data!!!!!!!

What are you afraid of? If the climate/world is warming you wouldn't have to resort to such tactics as the data would show it and I would quite happily accept it!

Anyway my main points were -

1) That the graph presented by Interitus was cherry picked (you have proved this to be true above!

2) That everymonth 'adjustments" are made to historical data by GISS and NOAA, only giving one effect (By reducing pre 1950 temps and increasing the 1950 to 1980 data.). The above two 'data keepers' have both teams of people checking and correcting data. Even the recent Aug figures have adjusted upwards 4 of the last 25 years - by NOAA starting in the 1990's.

I do believe that the climate is warming, but (and I think there are more and more people like me - the silent unknowns), who are seeing through this CAGW propaganda.

Anyway. enough of this on a very good Antartic thread .....

I will say no more.

MIA

[stewfox]

But if one takes into account smb loss of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica then it is the odd one out.

 

Over 800 years, Antarctic ice changes all the time, but current rates of change are not unusual. The surface mass balance (SMB) “changes over most of Antarctica are statistically negligible.†The  “current SMB is not exceptionally high compared to the last 800 yr.â€

 

Its like saying 0.01c temp increase in Greenland and 0.01c temp rise in Antarctica proves global warming

 

http://joannenova.com.au/2013/04/antarctica-gaining-ice-mass-and-is-not-extraordinary-compared-to-800-years-of-data/

Edited September 19, 2014 by stewfox

[Interitus]

 If the climate/world is warming you wouldn't have to resort to such tactics as the data would show it and I would quite happily accept it!

Anyway my main points were -

1) That the graph presented by Interitus was cherry picked (you have proved this to be true above!

 

 

Yep, it's cherry picked, my bad, August 2014 was the warmest on record according to NASA GISS, going back to 1880 - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/warmest-august-on-record-accor/34071365

Sorry!

 

er.. hold on, wait a minute...

[knocker]

Or

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00733.1

 

And

 

Antarctic sea level rising faster than global rate

 

A new study of satellite data from the last 19 years reveals that fresh water from melting glaciers has caused the sea level around the coast of Antarctica to rise by 2cm more than the global average of 6cm. Researchers detected the rapid rise in sea-level by studying satellite scans of a region that spans more than a million square kilometers. The melting of the Antarctic ice sheet and the thinning of floating ice shelves has contributed an excess of around 350 gigatonnes of freshwater to the surrounding ocean.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/08/140831150207.htm

 

The World Is Warming. So Why Is Antarctic Sea Ice Hitting Record Highs?

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09/18/antarctic_sea_ice_is_hitting_record_levels_what_does_that_say_about_global.html

Edited September 20, 2014 by knocker

[stewfox]

 

The World Is Warming. So Why Is Antarctic Sea Ice Hitting Record Highs?

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09/18/antarctic_sea_ice_is_hitting_record_levels_what_does_that_say_about_global.html

 

Much of the report has already been rebuked and/or discussed elsewhere.

 

Rather then blaming warmer seas more rain snow warmer air etc  etc (all that would apply to the Artic)

 

Why not just say as the report states at the end

 

"

Eventually, scientists expect the sheer temperature increase from global warming to swamp whatever complex combination of atmospheric and oceanographic physics that’s producing the counterintuitive ice growth"

 

Then wait for 50 years and see what happens

Edited September 20, 2014 by stewfox

[knocker]

deleted

Edited September 20, 2014 by knocker

[stewfox]

Yep, it's cherry picked, my bad, August 2014 was the warmest on record according to NASA GISS, going back to 1880 - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/warmest-august-on-record-accor/34071365

Sorry!

 

er.. hold on, wait a minute...

 

What satellites were they using in 1880 ? I think most agree a realistic bench mark is 30 years.

 

August 2014 beats the record set in 2005 by 0.08°C (0.14°F), We are talking about 0.08 comparative changes

Edited September 20, 2014 by stewfox

[jonboy]

I am a little sceptical not that we have another record but the extent of the increase just doesn't look or feel right. If it is and continues I will be interested to see the explanations

[Geoffwood]

stewfox,

"Topology the holy grail that's used to explain the differences but is it ?

How do we know that in the Arctic winter, without the constraint of the Canadian and Siberian coasts, sea ice wouldn’t be increasing there, which would perhaps make this Antarctic phenomenon less of a peculiarity?"

We don't know stew', because of the topology.

[knocker]

Of course topology plays a key role in the difference between the Poles. That is obvious. So what is the key to the differences in atmospheric circulation and  is also responsible for the known coupling to the climate system of the two poles?

[Interitus]

What satellites were they using in 1880 ? I think most agree a realistic bench mark is 30 years.

 

August 2014 beats the record set in 2005 by 0.08°C (0.14°F), We are talking about 0.08 comparative changes

 

What have satellites got to do with it? It's just the GISTEMP temperature series based on GHCN. I think most agree a realistic benchmark is that no years from 1880 were warmer than those in the satellite era. And this one is the warmest of those.

The August 2005 value is for just SST, for which incidentally this August also became the all-time highest, beating the previous record from only June this year.

'Comparative changes'? Well to take it literally then that's 0.089°C/decade - less than the highest rates seen but still above the 20th century average.

In the context of this thread however the post countered a suggestion that - "lots of additional ice is somehow pretended to be an indicator of warming".

It showed there is warming, which has also affected parts Antarctica but it isn't evenly distributed. Atmospheric/oceanic circulation, sea water freshening, south polar ozone depletion etc could all be factors in this and could be the cause of the rings of temperature anomalies in the southern hemisphere seen in the plot.

[Nights King]

This is interesting - Elephant seals help uncover slower-than-expected Antarctic melting

 

"The team’s results show that water temperatures are far lower than computer models predicted, which means that the Fimbul Ice Shelf is melting at a slower rate. Perhaps indicating that the shelf is neither losing nor gaining mass at the moment because ice buildup from snowfall has kept up with the rate of mass loss, Hattermann said"

 

http://news.agu.org/press-release/elephant-seals-help-uncover-slower-than-expected-antarctic-melting/

Edited September 22, 2014 by mullender83

[mikeworst]

Well to be realistic such a huge increase in ice does not support elevated sea surface temperatures or temperature increases of any description be it on land or otherwise. The only reason creatures would be at risk now would be too much ice and freezing temperatures.

[Nights King]

I wonder if the minimum will also continue to  increase down there?

 

Imagine if it actually surpassed the artic ice minimum!?

[mikeworst]

Who knows, the climate is unpredictable and the "experts" have no clue. Did they predict the extent this year??????? 

[ANYWEATHER]

Who knows, the climate is unpredictable and the "experts" have no clue. Did they predict the extent this year??????? 

Well ,yes your post is short and sweet and hit the nail on the head. There are really no experts on this ,some have better asumptions  than others, but the growth of sea ice is unbelievable, certainly a shock to those individuals who had a biast lean to Global warming, Greenhouse effect, or man made climate change, call it what you will. Ive got respect for everyone on here who debates the overall climate aspect and there is more than enough room for peoples views on here, but even the most enthusiastic scientist on a cool down on the planet would be very surprised at the charts below........