Antarctic Ice Discussion

[knocker]

Published on Jun 1, 2014

Independent videographer Peter Sinclair's 'This is Not Cool' video explores recent headline-grabbing research on Antarctic glacial melting, the first video produced under the name Yale Climate Connections, formerly The Yale Forum on Climate Change & The Media.

 

[be cause]

Records continue to tumble

 

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/preid/seaice/sea_ice_table_extent.html

 

Global sea ice over 600,000 sq kms above long term average

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/iphone/images/iphone.anomaly.global.png

 

 

This is like knowing the Fridge is broken but jumping up and down with joy because the veg box is still cool ..

[keithlucky]

This is like knowing the Fridge is broken but jumping up and down with joy because the veg box is still cool ..

This fridge is not broken  nearly  recorded record  low temperatures  last year!http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCgQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fscience%2F2013%2F12%2F10%2Fantarctica-sets-low-temperature-record-1358-degrees%2F&ei=c52MU5_BEIilO_K6gfAF&usg=AFQjCNFEqsg6Gcy5cxeEEYRPc_O7jpPQig&bvm=bv.67720277,d.ZGU&cad=rja

Edited June 2, 2014 by keithlucky

[stewfox]

This is like knowing the Fridge is broken but jumping up and down with joy because the veg box is still cool ..

 

What kind of veg box do you have ???.

 

Antarctica sets low temperature record of -135.8 degrees

 

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/12/10/antarctica-sets-low-temperature-record-1358-degrees/

 

I appreciate down south record ice growth doesn't count, if it shrinks it does.

 

Mean while records still tumble 

 

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/preid/seaice/sea_ice_table_extent.html

Edited June 3, 2014 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

Why are we bringing up better satellite coverage of the temps across Antarctica as some kind of 'ongoing record'? 

 

I know they spotted a very cold temp a number of years ago but doesn't it seem a little odd to go heralding that a very cold place is very cold? Had it been a station with a long series of temp records then it might have hinted at something of interest but a 'very cold' temp being recorded in Antarctica???

 

Ho Hum........

[stewfox]

Why are we bringing up better satellite coverage of the temps across Antarctica as some kind of 'ongoing record'? 

 

I know they spotted a very cold temp a number of years ago but doesn't it seem a little odd to go heralding that a very cold place is very cold? Had it been a station with a long series of temp records then it might have hinted at something of interest but a 'very cold' temp being recorded in Antarctica???

 

Ho Hum........

 

 

Lets agree then

 

 """Fridge is broken but jumping up and down with joy because the veg box is still cool ..""  

 

is a bit silly and move on.

 

Ps coldest on record

Edited June 2, 2014 by stewfox

[Tasboy]

It's interesting that some people get all excited because some part of the world is showing, in their opinion, opposite to what you expect under a global warming scenario.

 

Other people get excited because there are records being broken (in this case, Antarctic sea ice extent) and they would like to understand why and put it into context with what else they see.

 

Scientists are generally the people in the latter category. Any idea what the first category is?

 

There are a number of publications out there that go at least part way to explaining why Antarctic sea ice is expanding rather than shrinking, and why climate models are not able to sufficiently capture all the cryospheric processes that make Antarctica quite unique. People within this forum have pointed to a few of them. If you don't believe these publications then publish your own findings.

 

If you are going to make comments on scientific matters then at least try to read some scientific papers. Otherwise your ignorance is showing just a little.

[stewfox]

It's interesting that some people get all excited because some part of the world is showing, in their opinion, opposite to what you expect under a global warming scenario.

 

Other people get excited because there are records being broken (in this case, Antarctic sea ice extent) and they would like to understand why and put it into context with what else they see.

 

Scientists are generally the people in the latter category. Any idea what the first category is?

 

There are a number of publications out there that go at least part way to explaining why Antarctic sea ice is expanding rather than shrinking, and why climate models are not able to sufficiently capture all the cryospheric processes that make Antarctica quite unique. People within this forum have pointed to a few of them. If you don't believe these publications then publish your own findings.

 

If you are going to make comments on scientific matters then at least try to read some scientific papers. Otherwise your ignorance is showing just a little.

 

There are dozens of 'theories' and that's all they are why the Antarctic sea ice extent, a few are attached.

 

http://www.skepticalscience.com/increasing-Antarctic-Southern-sea-ice-intermediate.htm

 

There are also a number of theories regarding global warming and that's all they are.

 

I cant 'buy into' an idea that if 'things don't make sense, ignore them eventually they will'.

 

Posting records is just that

Edited June 3, 2014 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

Seems you missed out the increased CO2 releases that an over active Southern ocean pours into the atmosphere?

 

Seems even more ironic than highlighting an impact of warming as a sign of cooling? The mid pliocene warming period saw the southern oceans pumping CO2 into the atmosphere and we've been having plenty of papers, recently, about the increased over turning of the southern ocean dredging up sequestered CO2 and dumping it back into the atmosphere?

 

With the Arctic looking primed for a methane burp and the southern oceans looking like they are beginning to flip into a CO2 source how are we to limit GHG forcings over the coming decades?

 

Of course when the shelf/glaciers begin massive dumpings of bergs into the southern ocean we will be constantly told of the record levels of ice cover down south........

[4wd]

 

 

Seems even more ironic than highlighting an impact of warming as a sign of cooling? 

Not so much as highlighting increased ice and cooling as an impact of warming. 

 

There are dozens of 'theories' and that's all they are why the Antarctic sea ice extent

Excuses is a better word.

[keithlucky]

Antarctic sea ice continues to blow records away May record 12.965million sq km previous record for May of 12,722 sq km set in May 2010.http://nsidc.org/ http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html

Edited June 5, 2014 by keithlucky

[Tasboy]

A brief article has been published online regarding the paradox of Antarctic sea ice extent:

http://theconversation.com/what-is-the-paradox-of-increasing-antarctic-sea-ice-really-telling-us-27503

 

Of particular interest is the fact that not only is extent at record levels but so is area. See:

- extent: http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/preid/seaice/sea_ice_table_extent.html

- area: http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/preid/seaice/sea_ice_table_area.html

 

There is a high correlation between yearly maximum sea ice extent and the extent values towards the end of June (see the Turner et al 2013 paper). High values of extent in the Weddell and Ross seas suggest that we are on target to break a new maximum sea ice extent for the Southern Hemisphere (based on data since 1979). Three record-breaking years in a row would be quite remarkable.

[knocker]

I'm sure we agree Tasboy it's one of the most interesting aspects being researched at the moment. I posted a snippet in the history section yesterday on similar paradox when the Arctic ice melted in a cooling world. Took years to reach a tentative conclusion on that one.

[Gray-Wolf]

The latest concerns of the impacts of AGW across the southern oceans around Antarctica has to be the sudden onset of CO2 venting since the onset of Austral Autumn? Figures currently show 410ppm levels around the continent and the worry has to be that we are beginning to see one of the 'venting episodes' that are the opposite side of the CO2 sink that the southern ocean can also be.

 

I remember a discussion with jethro, a number of years back, about the failing of some of the CO2 sinks around the southern ocean. Then it was the strengthening of the wind (circumpolar winds) that was interfering with the process.

 

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/316/5832/1735

 

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8877

 

Past venting episodes have lead to global warming spurts so it is a very bad piece of timing to now see venting whilst humanity is busy with its own CO2 venting experiment.

Edited June 6, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[stewfox]

The latest concerns of the impacts of AGW across the southern oceans around Antarctica has to be the sudden onset of CO2 venting since the onset of Austral Autumn? Figures currently show 410ppm levels around the continent and the worry has to be that we are beginning to see one of the 'venting episodes' that are the opposite side of the CO2 sink that the southern ocean can also be.

 

I remember a discussion with jethro, a number of years back, about the failing of some of the CO2 sinks around the southern ocean. Then it was the strengthening of the wind (circumpolar winds) that was interfering with the process.

 

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/316/5832/1735

 

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8877

 

Past venting episodes have lead to global warming spurts so it is a very bad piece of timing to now see venting whilst humanity is busy with its own CO2 venting experiment.

 

Observational levels in 2007 looked like they were going back to what was expected, any updates ?

[knocker]

Needless to say AW and the illiterati have gone into uncontrolled spasms over this.

 

Evidence for elevated and spatially variable geothermal flux beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

early release of the full paper at PNAS.

 

 

Edited June 10, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

An interesting article on the above and other papers. Note the quite restrained comments at the end.

 

http://mallemaroking.org/amundsen-sea-embayment/

[keithlucky]

 

Needless to say AW and the illiterati have gone into uncontrolled spasms over this.

 

Evidence for elevated and spatially variable geothermal flux beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

early release of the full paper at PNAS.

 

 

 

I quote Knocker

Using radar techniques to map how water flows under ice sheets, UTIG researchers were able to estimate ice melting rates and thus identify significant sources of geothermal heat under Thwaites Glacier. They found these sources are distributed over a wider area and are much hotter than previously assumed.

The geothermal heat contributed significantly to melting of the underside of the glacier, and it might be a key factor in allowing the ice sheet to slide, affecting the ice sheet's stability and its contribution to future sea level rise.

The cause of the variable distribution of heat beneath the glacier is thought to be the movement of magma and associated volcanic activity arising from the rifting of the Earth's crust beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.http://phys.org/news/2014-06-major-west-antarctic-glacier-geothermal.html

 

 

Edited June 11, 2014 by keithlucky

[knocker]

I'm not sure I'm following the point you are presumably making Keith as the whole paper is available for anyone to read.

[4wd]

Well just last month the warming-doom media was awash with claims that the self-same glacier was about to slide into the sea as a result of global warming.Perhaps they just want to focus on ice movements taking place on a geological timescale to keep attention away from the rebounding Arctic or inconvenient rather prolonged above average total sea ice.http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg 

[4wd]

http://judithcurry.com/2014/06/09/asymmetric-responses-of-arctic-and-antarctic/Judith Curry sensible as usual 

 

The Marshall et al. paper provides a mechanism for cooling in the Antarctic, and the Shroeder paper provides a mechanism for geothermal heating of the WAIS.  Clearly, there is a lot going on that cannot be explained directly or even indirectly by warming from greenhouse gases.  Climate models don’t simulate correctly the ocean heat transport and its variations, and they certainly don’t simulate geothermal heat sources. Integrating these factors with radiative forcing is needed to start making sense of climate change in the polar regions.

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://mallemaroking.org/amundsen-sea-embayment/

 

Is the geothermal heat significant for melting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet?

 

Take Pine Island – which is adjacent to the Thwaites.

 

Pierre Dutrieux and colleagues had this to say in 2013 of the basal melt rates.

 

“At the broad scale [basal], melt rates of up to 100 m/yr occur near the grounding line [where the ice meets the ocean], reducing to 30 m yr/ just 20 km downstream [over the ocean]."

 

So 100 metres per year from the ocean verses 6.3 millimetres per year from the geothermal heat.

 

And the geothermal heat is clearly extremely variable in space.

 

And if you want go one step further then Park and colleagues said that this basal melt rate due to the ocean was increasing at an accelerating rate of 0.53 ± 0.15 m / yr−2.

 

Schroeder and colleagues work is, in my view, excellent and very significant. It demonstrates a hidden component for glacier hydrology.

 

But it is not the reason for the observed melt of the WAIS.

[Polar Maritime]

Staff at Australia's Davis station in Antarctica plunge into an icy pool for midwinter celebrations.

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-21/members-of-australias-station-in-antarctica-plunge/5540872

[Styx]

6 minute current affair segment, aired Friday on Tasmania's 7:30 program....starring 'Tasboy'.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-06/the-sea-ice-paradox/5507054

[keithlucky]

Antarctic sea ice continues to smash all previous records 1,444,000 sq km above normal